Spread vs book
Model vs book: NE +1.8 ptsBook NE +3.0Final
NE at CHI
NE24
atCHI30
Pre-tip projection NE 24.7, CHI 25.9.
Total vs book
Total: model 0.1 over bookBook 50.5 · Model 50.6Plays
63NE 60 · CHI 63NE
Drake Maye
CHI
Caleb Williams
SpreadBook NE +3.0 -118Model NE +1.2Model vs book: NE +1.8 pts
TotalBook O/U 50.5 -115Model 50.6Total: model 0.1 over book
100 draws from a normal distribution around the model margin, SD 13.5. CHI margin +1.2. Book +3.0.
Final CHI. Model side was CHI. No call is saved.
No sportsbook prop line is posted, so the player range has no line marker.
24.7–25.9. NE 24.7, CHI 25.9: a 1.2-point CHI margin and a 50.6 total.
NE 60 plays at a 56% pass rate. CHI 63 plays at a 56% pass rate.
CHI win probability is 54%. DraftKings line as of Oct 20, 10:19 PM ET (CHI -3.0, total 50.5), the spread model vs book difference is NE +1.8 and the total model vs book difference is Over +0.1.
NE
Hunter Henry TE9.19.1
A.J. Brown WR5.85.8
Rhamondre Stevenson RB10.310.3
Tommy DeVito QB0.50.5
DeMario Douglas WR11.111.1
Drake Maye QB20.320.3
Kyle Williams WR3.73.7
Corey Kiner RB3.23.2
Efton Chism III WR4.94.9
TreVeyon Henderson RB5.35.3
Eli Raridon TE4.34.3Full table
iThe American price that matches our probability, before a book adds juice. | iThe low and high marks. About 80% of the simulations land between them. | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Maye QB | 29.4 | 264 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 4.5 | 22 | 17% | +503 | 20.3 | |||
| DeMario Douglas WR | 0.0 | 0 | 5.9 | 4.2 | 59 | 40% | +149 | 11.1 | ||||
| Rhamondre Stevenson RB | 10.3 | 44 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 21 | 42% | +136 | 10.3 | ||||
| Hunter Henry TE | 0.0 | 0 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 47 | 33% | +203 | 9.1 | ||||
| A.J. BrownQ WR | 0.0 | 0 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 34 | 20% | +401 | 5.8 | ||||
| TreVeyon Henderson RB | 6.5 | 31 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 10 | 24% | +321 | 5.3 | ||||
| Efton Chism III WR | 0.2 | 1 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 30 | 19% | +435 | 4.9 | ||||
| Eli Raridon TE | 0.0 | 0 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 26 | 12% | +713 | 4.3 | ||||
| Kyle Williams WR | 0.0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 26 | 16% | +524 | 3.7 | ||||
| Corey Kiner RB | 4.9 | 27 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 4 | 13% | +659 | 3.2 | ||||
| Tommy DeVito QB | 1.6 | 11 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1 | 1% | +16542 | 0.5 |
CHI
Kalif Raymond WR4.14.1
D'Andre Swift RB12.112.1
Tyson Bagent QB0.40.4
Roschon Johnson RB5.75.7
Caleb Williams QB14.314.3
Rome Odunze WR7.27.2
Colston Loveland TE8.38.3
Kyle Monangai RB3.23.2
Luther Burden III WR10.110.1Full table
iThe American price that matches our probability, before a book adds juice. | iThe low and high marks. About 80% of the simulations land between them. | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams QB | 31.4 | 234 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 3.1 | 13 | 10% | +899 | 14.3 | |||
| D'Andre Swift RB | 11.5 | 46 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 23 | 51% | -103 | 12.1 | ||||
| Luther Burden III WR | 1.1 | 4 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 58 | 22% | +355 | 10.1 | ||||
| Colston Loveland TE | 0.0 | 0 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 43 | 28% | +253 | 8.3 | ||||
| Rome Odunze WR | 0.0 | 0 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 42 | 21% | +374 | 7.2 | ||||
| Roschon Johnson RB | 5.5 | 21 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 18 | 27% | +271 | 5.7 | ||||
| Kalif Raymond WR | 0.2 | 1 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 22 | 13% | +694 | 4.1 | ||||
| Kyle MonangaiQ RB | 6.0 | 27 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 3 | 22% | +364 | 3.2 | ||||
| Tyson Bagent QB | 1.6 | 11 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1 | 1% | +19488 | 0.4 |
Injury report
Injury report updated Oct 20, 10:19 PM ET.
- CHI Anthony Johnson Jr. S · Injured Reserve · Undisclosed
- CHI Dayo Odeyingbo DE · Injured Reserve · Quadriceps (Not Specified)
- NE Marcus Bryant OT · Injured Reserve · Ankle (Not Specified)
- NE Romeo Doubs WR · Injured Reserve · Shoulder (Not Specified)
- CHI Montez Sweat DE · Suspension · Suspension (Not Specified)
- NE Alijah Vera-Tucker G · Doubtful · Hamstring (Not Specified)
- NE Ben Brown C · Doubtful · Knee (Not Specified)
- CHI Jack Sanborn LB · Questionable · Concussion (Concussion)
- CHI Jonah Jackson G · Questionable · Hip (Not Specified)
- CHI Kyle Monangai RB · Questionable · Toe (Sprain)
- CHI T.J. Edwards LB · Questionable · Hamstring (Not Specified)
- NE A.J. Brown WR · Questionable · Ankle (Sprain)
- NE Carlton Davis III CB · Questionable · Neck (Not Specified)
- NE Channing Canada CB · Questionable · Hamstring (Not Specified)
- NE Karon Prunty CB · Questionable · Hamstring (Not Specified)
- NE Morgan Moses OT · Questionable · Foot (Not Specified)