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Blueprint sheet · Thursday night

NE at CHI

Thu 8:15 PM ET · Soldier Field

This is the best possible lineup in hindsight, not a contest result.

held 4/4 means the pattern held in each of the 2022 to 2025 seasons. + holdout means it also held in 2026 weeks 1 to 6. mixed means it did not hold every season. thin means a small sample.

Total 50.5 · CHI −3.0 · Shootout · Coin flip

Stored DraftKings line as of Oct 20, 10:19 PM ET. Not a live refresh.

Game shapes

Each chance is the market, from the stored spread and total. It is not a player projection.

  1. CHI by 10 or more, over · 15%

    Most perfect lineups went 4-2 toward Chicago; the captain was a Bear 83% of the time.

    Both quarterbacks 58%. One quarterback 39%. Kicker 26%. Defense 26%.

  2. CHI by 10 or more, under · 15%

    Most perfect lineups split 4-2; the captain was a Bear 87% of the time.

    Both quarterbacks 25%. One quarterback 67%. Kicker 42%. Defense 61%.

  3. CHI by fewer than 10, over · 14%

    Most perfect lineups split 3-3; the captain was a Bear 64% of the time.

    Both quarterbacks 69%. One quarterback 30%. Kicker 33%. Defense 9%.

  4. CHI by fewer than 10, under · 14%

    Most perfect lineups split 4-2; the captain was a Bear 63% of the time.

    Both quarterbacks 45%. One quarterback 45%. Kicker 45%. Defense 27%.

  5. NE by fewer than 10, over · 12%

    Most perfect lineups split 3-3; the captain was a Patriot 62% of the time.

    Both quarterbacks 76%. One quarterback 23%. Kicker 23%. Defense 9%.

  6. NE by fewer than 10, under · 12%

    Most perfect lineups split 3-3; the captain was a Patriot 51% of the time.

    Both quarterbacks 55%. One quarterback 39%. Kicker 40%. Defense 26%.

  7. NE by 10 or more, over · 8%

    Most perfect lineups went 4-2 toward New England; the captain was a Patriot 85% of the time.

    Both quarterbacks 56%. One quarterback 42%. Kicker 40%. Defense 20%.

  8. NE by 10 or more, under · 8%

    Most perfect lineups went 4-2 toward New England; the captain was a Patriot 81% of the time.

    Both quarterbacks 26%. One quarterback 69%. Kicker 35%. Defense 70%.

Other outcomes: 2%

  1. Perfect lineups follow the team that wins; favorites win more often.

    held 4/4 + holdoutn=1,087

  2. Defenses made 15% of shootout lineups, versus 39% in grinds. That order held every season.

    held 4/4 + holdoutn=140 shootout games

  3. Quarterback and his top receiver moved together, r=0.32. It held every season.

    held 4/4 + holdoutn=280 shootout pairs

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