Arcline Blueprint
This is the best possible lineup in hindsight, not a contest result.
1,087 games, 2022–2025. 93 games from 2026 are the holdout.
held 4/4 means the pattern held in each of the 2022 to 2025 seasons. + holdout means it also held in 2026 weeks 1 to 6. mixed means it did not hold every season. thin means a small sample.
Perfect lineups follow the team that wins; favorites win more often.
held 4/4 + holdoutn=1,087
The favorite was the captain, by the size of the spread.
Favorite at captain, 2022–2025. Spread Rate Games All spreads 62% 1,087 Coin flip 54% 436 Regular 63% 375 Big favorite 72% 276 In coin flips the favorite was not the captain every season.
Most perfect lineups split 4-2: 45%. It held every season.
held 4/4 + holdoutn=1,087
The most common perfect shape may also be the most common build in contests, which we can't measure.
Perfect-lineup shape by the final margin, 2022–2025. Final margin 5-1 4-2 3-3 Games Margin of 10 or more 32% 45% 23% 470 Margin under 10 5% 44% 51% 614 Kickers and defenses both show up more in grinds than shootouts, and it held every season.
held 4/4 + holdoutn=1,087
GrindAverageShootoutDefenseKicker Favorite quarterbacks were captain 20% of the time. Underdog quarterbacks, 6%. It held every season.
held 4/4 + holdoutn=651
Quarterback and his top receiver moved together, r=0.46. It held every season.
held 4/4 + holdoutn=2,174 pairs
More findings
A kicker or a defense was the captain in 4% of perfect lineups.
held 4/4 + holdoutn=1,087
2022 3% · 2023 6% · 2024 4% · 2025 3% · 2026 4%
When a quarterback was captain, his own kicker was in the lineup 14% of the time.
held 4/4 + holdoutn=276
2022 5% · 2023 17% · 2024 17% · 2025 18% · 2026 9%
When a quarterback was in the lineup, a wideout or tight end from his team was in it 85% of the time.
held 4/4 + holdoutn=1,031
2022 86% · 2023 88% · 2024 80% · 2025 86% · 2026 77%
When a defense was in the lineup, three or more skill players from the other team were in it 25% of the time.
held 4/4 + holdoutn=317
2022 31% · 2023 21% · 2024 25% · 2025 23% · 2026 20%
Both quarterbacks were in 65% of perfect lineups when the game went over the total.
held 4/4 + holdoutn=530
2022 58% · 2023 70% · 2024 68% · 2025 65% · 2026 81%
When the game stayed under the total, one quarterback was more common than two, 53% to 39%.
held 4/4 + holdoutn=549
2022 48% to 46% · 2023 52% to 38% · 2024 56% to 35% · 2025 55% to 38% · 2026 52% to 46%
Both quarterbacks were in 68% of shootout perfect lineups.
held 4/4 + holdoutn=140
2022 74% · 2023 82% · 2024 54% · 2025 67% · 2026 89%
With a quarterback in the lineup, the other quarterback was there 55% of the time. Two pass catchers from the other team, without their quarterback, were in 8% of them.
held 4/4 + holdoutn=1,031
2022 54% to 7% · 2023 56% to 7% · 2024 55% to 12% · 2025 54% to 6% · 2026 64% to 2%
When the final margin was under 10, five players from the team that won were in 4% of perfect lineups.
held 4/4 + holdoutn=614
2022 6% · 2023 5% · 2024 4% · 2025 3% · 2026 2%
Wideouts led overall, 35% of perfect lineups. Not every season.
mixedn=1,087
2022 wideout · 2023 wideout · 2024 running back · 2025 running back
The other team's defense moved against the quarterback, r=-0.41. It held every season.
held 4/4 + holdoutn=2,174 pairs
Kicker and defense moved together, r=0.25. It held every season.
held 4/4 + holdoutn=2,148 pairs
By season
| Season | Games | QB | RB | WR | TE | K | DST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 271 | 23% | 29% | 39% | 6% | 1% | 3% |
| 2023 | 272 | 22% | 26% | 41% | 5% | 1% | 5% |
| 2024 | 272 | 28% | 32% | 31% | 6% | 2% | 2% |
| 2025 | 272 | 29% | 34% | 29% | 5% | 1% | 2% |
| 2026 | 93 | 24% | 28% | 35% | 9% | 1% | 3% |
| QB | RB1 | RB2 | WR1 | WR2 | WR3 | TE1 | DST | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | — | 0.082360 | 0.082330 | 0.462360 | 0.412359 | 0.292287 | 0.332346 | -0.072360 | 0.052334 |
| RB1 | 0.082360 | — | 0.022330 | 0.032360 | -0.042359 | -0.062287 | -0.012346 | 0.062360 | 0.142334 |
| RB2 | 0.082330 | 0.022330 | — | 0.012330 | -0.052329 | -0.012257 | -0.022316 | 0.042330 | 0.042304 |
| WR1 | 0.462360 | 0.032360 | 0.012330 | — | 0.222359 | 0.082287 | 0.002346 | -0.042360 | 0.092334 |
| WR2 | 0.412359 | -0.042359 | -0.052329 | 0.222359 | — | 0.212287 | -0.042345 | -0.052359 | 0.022333 |
| WR3 | 0.292287 | -0.062287 | -0.012257 | 0.082287 | 0.212287 | — | -0.062274 | -0.062287 | 0.032261 |
| TE1 | 0.332346 | -0.012346 | -0.022316 | 0.002346 | -0.042345 | -0.062274 | — | -0.092346 | 0.012322 |
| DST | -0.072360 | 0.062360 | 0.042330 | -0.042360 | -0.052359 | -0.062287 | -0.092346 | — | 0.242334 |
| K | 0.052334 | 0.142334 | 0.042304 | 0.092334 | 0.022333 | 0.032261 | 0.012322 | 0.242334 | — |
| QB | RB1 | RB2 | WR1 | WR2 | WR3 | TE1 | DST | K | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | 0.191180 | 0.072360 | 0.002330 | 0.112360 | 0.112359 | 0.092287 | 0.082346 | -0.422360 | -0.052334 |
| RB1 | 0.072360 | -0.111180 | -0.062330 | 0.012360 | -0.012359 | 0.062287 | 0.042346 | -0.302360 | -0.102334 |
| RB2 | 0.002330 | -0.062330 | -0.051150 | 0.022330 | 0.012329 | -0.012258 | -0.042316 | -0.162330 | -0.072304 |
| WR1 | 0.112360 | 0.012360 | 0.022330 | 0.081180 | 0.092359 | 0.092287 | 0.052346 | -0.212360 | -0.012334 |
| WR2 | 0.112359 | -0.012359 | 0.012329 | 0.092359 | 0.081179 | 0.072286 | 0.052345 | -0.132359 | -0.012333 |
| WR3 | 0.092287 | 0.062287 | -0.012258 | 0.092287 | 0.072286 | 0.081109 | 0.032273 | -0.112287 | 0.022262 |
| TE1 | 0.082346 | 0.042346 | -0.042316 | 0.052346 | 0.052345 | 0.032273 | 0.041166 | -0.092346 | -0.012320 |
| DST | -0.422360 | -0.302360 | -0.162330 | -0.212360 | -0.132359 | -0.112287 | -0.092346 | -0.271180 | -0.322334 |
| K | -0.052334 | -0.102334 | -0.072304 | -0.012334 | -0.012333 | 0.022262 | -0.012320 | -0.322334 | -0.121154 |
How we measured this
This is the best possible lineup in hindsight, not a contest result. One captain at 1.5× and five flex spots. Both teams are required. Kickers and defenses are in the pool. No salary cap.
Regular-season games with a final score, 2022 through 2026 Week 6. 2022–2025 are the descriptive sample. 2026 weeks 1–6 are the holdout and were not used to set the builder seeds.
Grind is a total of 42 or under, average is 42.5 to 48.5, and shootout is 49 or higher. Coin flip is a spread of 3 or under, regular is 3.5 to 6.5, and big is 7 or higher.
In the historical lines, a positive number means the home team was favored. On these Week 7 sheets, a negative number means the home team is favored. The cut points are the same either way.
Builder seeds are how often a position appeared with that captain, divided by how often it appeared with a different captain. Near 1 stays 1. Others are limited to 0.70–1.40. They do not change the projected median.
Average score, as a check on the counting: skill 7.9, kicker 8.3, defense 6.3.
- nflverse publishes scores and closing lines, not DraftKings salaries.
- DraftKings does not publish a historical Showdown salary archive.
- The public rotoguru dump (donlaur/NFL-Historical-Fantasy-Points) stops in 2019 and is not 2022-2026 Showdown.
- tidyDK's public contest samples are from 2020, not this window.
- STAT-API and FTN Data sell salary histories and do not allow this site to republish them.