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Blueprint sheet · Sunday night

KC at SEA

Sun 8:20 PM ET · Lumen Field

This is the best possible lineup in hindsight, not a contest result.

held 4/4 means the pattern held in each of the 2022 to 2025 seasons. + holdout means it also held in 2026 weeks 1 to 6. mixed means it did not hold every season. thin means a small sample.

Total 42.5 · SEA −2.5 · Average · Coin flip

Stored DraftKings line as of Oct 20, 10:19 PM ET. Not a live refresh.

Game shapes

Each chance is the market, from the stored spread and total. It is not a player projection.

  1. SEA by 10 or more, over · 14%

    Most perfect lineups went 4-2 toward Seattle; the captain was a Seahawk 83% of the time.

    Both quarterbacks 58%. One quarterback 39%. Kicker 26%. Defense 26%.

  2. SEA by 10 or more, under · 14%

    Most perfect lineups split 4-2; the captain was a Seahawk 87% of the time.

    Both quarterbacks 25%. One quarterback 67%. Kicker 42%. Defense 61%.

  3. SEA by fewer than 10, over · 14%

    Most perfect lineups split 3-3; the captain was a Seahawk 64% of the time.

    Both quarterbacks 69%. One quarterback 30%. Kicker 33%. Defense 9%.

  4. SEA by fewer than 10, under · 14%

    Most perfect lineups split 4-2; the captain was a Seahawk 63% of the time.

    Both quarterbacks 45%. One quarterback 45%. Kicker 45%. Defense 27%.

  5. KC by fewer than 10, over · 12%

    Most perfect lineups split 3-3; the captain was a Chief 62% of the time.

    Both quarterbacks 76%. One quarterback 23%. Kicker 23%. Defense 9%.

  6. KC by fewer than 10, under · 12%

    Most perfect lineups split 3-3; the captain was a Chief 51% of the time.

    Both quarterbacks 55%. One quarterback 39%. Kicker 40%. Defense 26%.

  7. KC by 10 or more, over · 8%

    Most perfect lineups went 4-2 toward Kansas City; the captain was a Chief 85% of the time.

    Both quarterbacks 56%. One quarterback 42%. Kicker 40%. Defense 20%.

  8. KC by 10 or more, under · 8%

    Most perfect lineups went 4-2 toward Kansas City; the captain was a Chief 81% of the time.

    Both quarterbacks 26%. One quarterback 69%. Kicker 35%. Defense 70%.

Other outcomes: 4%

  1. Perfect lineups follow the team that wins; favorites win more often.

    held 4/4 + holdoutn=1,087

  2. Defenses made 26% of these lineups, between grinds (39%) and shootouts (15%). That order held every season.

    held 4/4 + holdoutn=580 average games

  3. Quarterback and his top receiver moved together, r=0.45. It held every season.

    held 4/4 + holdoutn=1,160 average pairs

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