Spread vs book
UnmodeledBook KC +2.5Final
KC at SEA
KC3
atSEA20
Pre-tip projection KC 20.3, SEA 22.3.
Total vs book
Total: model 0.1 over bookBook 42.5 · Model 42.6Plays
61KC 62 · SEA 61KC
Patrick Mahomes
SEA
Sam Darnold
Model gap — unmodeled news, not a play
TotalBook O/U 42.5 -110Model 42.6Total: model 0.1 over book
100 draws from a normal distribution around the model margin, SD 13.5. SEA margin +2.0. Book +2.5.
Final SEA. Model side was SEA. No call is saved.
No sportsbook prop line is posted, so the player range has no line marker.
20.3–22.3. KC 20.3, SEA 22.3: a 2.0-point SEA margin and a 42.6 total.
KC 62 plays at a 59% pass rate. SEA 61 plays at a 55% pass rate.
SEA win probability is 56%. DraftKings line as of Oct 20, 10:19 PM ET (SEA -2.5, total 42.5), the spread model vs book difference is KC +0.5 and the total model vs book difference is Over +0.1.
Model gap — unmodeled news, not a play Not in the point model: Anthony Bradford (SEA G, Injured Reserve).
KC
Travis Kelce TE9.19.1
Patrick Mahomes QB14.814.8
Noah Gray TE4.54.5
Justin Fields QB0.40.4
Kenneth Walker III RB21.221.2
Rashee Rice WR4.24.2
Xavier Worthy WR10.110.1
Jalen Royals WR3.43.4
Emmett Johnson RB3.83.8Full table
iThe American price that matches our probability, before a book adds juice. | iThe low and high marks. About 80% of the simulations land between them. | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenneth Walker III RB | 19.4 | 103 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 23 | 68% | -209 | 21.2 | ||||
| Patrick Mahomes QB | 32.4 | 234 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 14 | 11% | +805 | 14.8 | |||
| Xavier Worthy WR | 0.0 | 0 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 57 | 21% | +386 | 10.1 | ||||
| Travis Kelce TE | 0.0 | 0 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 48 | 26% | +280 | 9.1 | ||||
| Noah Gray TE | 0.0 | 0 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 26 | 11% | +845 | 4.5 | ||||
| Rashee RiceQ WR | 0.0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 23 | 14% | +615 | 4.2 | ||||
| Emmett Johnson RB | 3.1 | 11 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 15 | 16% | +515 | 3.8 | ||||
| Jalen Royals WR | 0.0 | 0 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 18 | 13% | +642 | 3.4 | ||||
| Justin Fields QB | 1.7 | 10 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1 | 1% | +13954 | 0.4 |
SEA
Cooper Kupp WR6.26.2
Sam Darnold QB11.211.2
Drew Lock QB0.50.5
Rashid Shaheed WR6.36.3
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR15.815.8
Emanuel Wilson RB10.710.7
George Holani RB4.14.1
AJ Barner TE5.05.0
Tory Horton WR2.32.3Full table
iThe American price that matches our probability, before a book adds juice. | iThe low and high marks. About 80% of the simulations land between them. | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR | 0.3 | 2 | 9.5 | 6.8 | 89 | 38% | +162 | 15.8 | ||||
| Sam Darnold QB | 29.6 | 199 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 7 | 5% | +2016 | 11.2 | |||
| Emanuel Wilson RB | 17.7 | 62 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 11 | 45% | +120 | 10.7 | ||||
| Rashid Shaheed WR | 0.8 | 4 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 34 | 16% | +523 | 6.3 | ||||
| Cooper Kupp WR | 0.0 | 0 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 34 | 16% | +517 | 6.2 | ||||
| AJ Barner TE | 0.0 | 0 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 26 | 18% | +457 | 5.0 | ||||
| George Holani RB | 5.2 | 18 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 11 | 26% | +285 | 4.1 | ||||
| Tory Horton WR | 0.0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 13 | 15% | +584 | 2.3 | ||||
| Drew Lock QB | 1.6 | 10 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 1 | 1% | +13739 | 0.5 |
Injury report
Injury report updated Oct 20, 10:19 PM ET.
- SEA Elijah Arroyo TE · Out · Shoulder (Not Specified)
- SEA Zach Charbonnet RB · Out · Knee - ACL (Surgery)
- KC Cooper McDonald LB · Injured Reserve · Knee (Not Specified)
- KC Tyquan Thornton WR · Injured Reserve · Ankle (Surgery)
- SEA Anthony Bradford G · Injured Reserve · Knee (Not Specified)
- SEA Jadarian Price RB · Injured Reserve · Chest (Not Specified)
- KC Jaylon Moore OT · Questionable · Concussion (Concussion)
- KC Josh Simmons OT · Questionable · Back (Not Specified)
- KC Rashee Rice WR · Questionable · Hamstring (Not Specified)
- SEA Chazz Surratt LB · Questionable · Calf (Not Specified)
- SEA Drake Thomas LB · Questionable · Ankle (Not Specified)