NBA · Methodology
How the numbers are made
Game script
Game score uses 2025-26 ESPN pace and efficiency. Each team's points per possession is the average of its own points per possession and the opponent's points allowed per possession. Game pace is the average of the two pace factors. Player rows are not summed: model minutes run past 240 and per-minute rates are not a team model.
Pace on the card is the average of the two teams' 2025-26 ESPN pace factors, the same pace used in the score.
Market spread and total are the pre-tip lines (home spread, home minus away).
Win probability is omitted. It is not published, and this page does not assume a margin distribution.
Player rows
Player points, rebounds, assists, and threes are model minutes times that player's 2025-26 per-minute rate from ESPN season totals. Official outs are blank. A player with no 2025-26 ESPN minutes is blank.
DraftKings median, p10, and p90 are the Arcline model, built from the 3:00 PM ET official injury report and DK group 154575.
No player prop prices are posted. The props table is the projection only.
What was graded
The DraftKings point forecast was checked before each slate, using only games already played, on 52,549 player-games in 2024-25 and 2025-26. Average miss is 7.684 points, against 7.877 for last-five minutes times career fantasy points per minute. The range covered 80.8% of actual scores. The counting-stat rates and the pace-efficiency score were not part of that test.
Full write-up: model/nba/reports/BACKTEST.md. Injury statuses on the pages are the official 3:00 PM ET report. Season rates are ESPN regular-season 2025-26 totals. StatRankings was checked as a private benchmark and is not republished here.