Four matches today, led by Germany v Curaçao. The slate read, match by match, then the one line that ties it together.
Four matches on the board today. The firmest read is Germany 91% against Curaçao — the model's widest separation on the card. No runaway favourites — the board clusters in the 50–60% band where the edge is in the details, not the badges. The line worth a second look is Ivory Coast v Ecuador: the model has the over at 49% against the books' 32% — more goals than the price wants to pay for.
This is the one to build the day around: xG 2.9–0.5, and the model's separation here is wider than anything else on the slate.
The day in a line: Germany is the call the model trusts most, the totals are where it's picking a fight with the books, and every number above goes on the record the moment the whistles blow — hits and misses alike.