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MLB · RUN ENVIRONMENT MODEL · 2026-07-17

MLB.

Every game on the slate journaled pre-pitch — model win probability against the market close, totals against the physics of the park, and a DK hitter pool priced off the same run.

GAMES14 pricedEDGES0 publishedHITTERS8 pricedBEST AIR1.49x HR
Tonight's BoardDFS Pool
BEST AIR TONIGHT · WSH @ OAK9:40 PM ET
HR factor1.49x
Runs factor1.20x
Model total14.1
TEMP
87°F
WIND
13 mph out to CF
LINE
10.0
Sutter Health Park. Physics, not vibes — temperature, wind vector, and park geometry priced into every total.
FROM THE DESK

The latest reads.

ALL READS →
MLBRECAPJUL 17
Francisco Alvarez Went Supernova on a Night We Said Nothing
No pick cleared our bar on July 16 — a disciplined pass, not a miss. Then Francisco Alvarez went out and hit two home runs anyway. The DFS slate had a story to tell, even if the betting card didn't.
READ →
MLBRECAPJUL 15
Vargas Steals the All-Star Show on a Night We Sat Out
The model found nothing worth betting on the All-Star slate — a disciplined pass, not a miss. Meanwhile, Miguel Vargas reminded everyone why the Mid-Summer Classic still produces moments worth watching.
READ →
MLBRECAPJUL 13
Wheeler Went Off. The Totals Did Not Cooperate.
Zack Wheeler dropped a 35-point masterpiece, Alex Bregman reminded everyone who he is, and our unders had a rough afternoon in Cincinnati. The full honest grade, right here.
READ →
TONIGHT'S BOARD

Model vs market, game by game.

GAMEMARKETMODEL / MKTEDGECONFSTATUS
TEX @ ATL · 7:15 PMTexas Rangers ML38.0% / 35.2%+2.8ppLOWBELOW FLOOR
DET @ LAA · 9:38 PMDetroit Tigers ML51.8% / 50.0%+1.8ppLOWBELOW FLOOR
MIN @ CHC · 8:05 PMChicago Cubs ML57.3% / 55.6%+1.6ppLOWBELOW FLOOR
CIN @ COL · 8:40 PMCincinnati Reds ML50.4% / 48.9%+1.5ppLOWBELOW FLOOR
STL @ ARI · 9:40 PMArizona Diamondbacks ML50.5% / 49.0%+1.5ppLOWBELOW FLOOR
CHW @ TOR · 7:15 PMChicago White Sox ML46.1% / 44.8%+1.3ppLOWBELOW FLOOR
MIA @ MIL · 7:40 PMMilwaukee Brewers ML58.5% / 57.3%+1.2ppLOWBELOW FLOOR
WSH @ OAK · 9:40 PMWashington Nationals ML50.9% / 49.8%+1.1ppLOWBELOW FLOOR
BAL @ HOU · 8:10 PMHouston Astros ML51.1% / 50.2%+0.9ppLOWBELOW FLOOR
SD @ KC · 8:10 PMSan Diego Padres ML51.3% / 50.9%+0.4ppLOWBELOW FLOOR
TB @ BOS · 1:35 PMBoston Red Sox ML53.6% / 53.3%+0.3ppLOWBELOW FLOOR
PIT @ CLE · 7:10 PMPittsburgh Pirates ML46.4% / 46.1%+0.3ppLOWBELOW FLOOR
LAD @ NYY · 7:05 PMNew York Yankees ML48.8% / 48.6%+0.2ppLOWBELOW FLOOR
SF @ SEA · 10:10 PMSeattle Mariners ML58.1% / 57.9%+0.2ppLOWBELOW FLOOR
Model / market are the blend and the de-vig consensus the journal grades against. Below-floor games stay visible — that's the point.
STACK BOARD

Which offenses tonight.

#STACKTOP-5 BLOCKTOP-5 PROJHR AIRTEAM WIN%PRICED
01CHC vs MINCrow-Armstrong · Busch · Suzuki · Happ · Swanson63.41.45x57.3%9 hitters
02WSH vs OAKWood · Mead · Crews · Lile · Abrams59.81.49x50.9%9 hitters
03CIN vs COLStewart · Suarez · Bleday · Marte · Cruz55.01.22x50.4%9 hitters
04COL vs CINGoodman · Rumfield · McCarthy · Moniak · Carrigg54.61.22x49.6%9 hitters
05MIN vs CHCClemens · Buxton · Lee · Larnach · Bell51.61.45x42.7%9 hitters
06BAL vs HOUHenderson · Alonso · Ward · Basallo · Cowser51.51.40x48.9%9 hitters
07NYY vs LADRice · Bellinger · Jr. · Dominguez · Caballero51.21.22x48.8%9 hitters
08HOU vs BALAlvarez · Paredes · Altuve · Pena · Walker50.61.40x51.1%9 hitters
09LAD vs NYYOhtani · Freeman · Muncy · Tucker · Pages50.41.22x51.2%9 hitters
10ATL vs TEXOlson · Baldwin · Albies · II · Smith48.51.25x62%9 hitters
Top-5 block = the team's five best projected hitters from tonight's run. HR AIR is the park-weather home-run factor — it lands closer to first pitch. Win% is the journaled blend. Correlation is the point: runs cluster, and a stack buys the whole rally.
DFS · TONIGHT'S POOL

The hitters the model wants.

#HITTERTEAMPROJSALARYVALUE
01Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC15.0$6.3k
2.4
02Michael BuschCHC13.3$3.8k
3.5
03James WoodWSH12.8$6.6k
1.9
04Yordan AlvarezHOU12.3$6.4k
1.9
05Seiya SuzukiCHC12.2$4.3k
2.8
06Curtis MeadWSH12.2$4.6k
2.6
07Ian HappCHC11.9$4.1k
2.9
08Shohei OhtaniLAD11.9$6.7k
1.8
AIR BOARD · HR FACTOR
WSH @ OAK1.49x
MIN @ CHC1.45x
BAL @ HOU1.40x
SD @ KC1.38x
TB @ BOS1.31x
OPEN THE STACK OPTIMIZER →
RECENT GRADED · MLB

The record, misses included.

HIT RATE
—
GRADED
0
The MLB journal is in its validation window — every game is graded pre-pitch, and the public record starts the day the sample clears the bar.
MLB RESEARCH

The reasoning behind the board.

THE STANDARDALWAYS ON
What counts as a pick — the edge floor, in writing
Methodology
MODEL vs MARKETEVERY SLATE
The full MLB board — every game journaled pre-pitch
Live tool
PARK & WEATHERUPDATED HOURLY
Air density, wind vectors, and park factors by game
Live tool

Every park priced. Weather and all.

Model win probabilities, physics-based totals, and a DK pool from one nightly run — journaled before first pitch, graded after the last out.

Tonight's BoardDFS Pool