A walk-forward Elo over every result since 2015 — home field estimated from the data — against the cross-book consensus, de-vigged and blended market-over-model. Week 1 kicks off Aug 29: the lines are live now, and the graded record starts with the first game. Until it does, every divergence on this page is informational — noted, not recommended.
| KICKOFF | MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MODEL | MARKET | BLEND | EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:30PM ET | Sacramento State Hornets @ Eastern Michigan Eagles | -8.5 | 53 | 92% | 73% | 81% | +7.4pp INFO |
| 12:00PM ET | North Carolina Tar Heels @ TCU Horned Frogs | -6.5 | 49 | 80% | 69% | 72% | — |
| 3:00PM ET | San Jose State Spartans @ USC Trojans | -35.5 | 58.5 | 85% | 98% | 96% | — |
| 3:30PM ET | NC State Wolfpack @ Virginia Cavaliers | -5.5 | 54.5 | 62% | 63% | 63% | — |
| 5:30PM ET | Jacksonville State Gamecocks @ North Dakota State Bison | -7.5 | 48.5 | 10% | 71% | 49% | — |
| 7:00PM ET | New Mexico State Aggies @ Florida State Seminoles | -30.5 | 53.5 | 73% | 96% | 93% | — |
| 7:00PM ET | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors @ Stanford Cardinal | -4 | 50.5 | 48% | 63% | 59% | — |
| 10:00PM ET | Memphis Tigers @ UNLV Rebels | -5.5 | 59 | 65% | 65% | 65% | — |
| KICKOFF | MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MODEL | MARKET | BLEND | EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:00PM ET | UMass Minutemen @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights | -30.5 | 54.5 | 87% | 97% | 95% | — |
| 7:00PM ET | Akron Zips @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons | -22.5 | 49.5 | 76% | 93% | 90% | — |
| 7:00PM ET | Albany @ Buffalo Bulls | -27.5 | — | 93% | 95% | 94% | — |
| 7:00PM ET | Bethune-Cookman Wildcats @ UCF Knights | — | — | 94% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 7:00PM ET | Merrimack Warriors @ Delaware Blue Hens | -30 | — | 93% | 95% | 95% | — |
| 7:00PM ET | West Georgia Wolves @ Kennesaw State Owls | -24 | — | 94% | 93% | 93% | — |
| 8:00PM ET | Arkansas Pine Bluff Golden Lions @ Missouri Tigers | — | — | 97% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 8:00PM ET | Colorado Buffaloes @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | -7 | 51.5 | 74% | 69% | 71% | — |
| 8:00PM ET | Eastern Illinois Panthers @ Minnesota Golden Gophers | — | — | 96% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 9:00PM ET | Idaho Vandals @ Utah Utes | — | 57.5 | 98% | 98% | 98% | — |
| 9:00PM ET | UAB Blazers @ Illinois Fighting Illini | -27.5 | 56.5 | 82% | 95% | 92% | — |
| KICKOFF | MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MODEL | MARKET | BLEND | EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:30PM ET | San Jose State Spartans @ Eastern Michigan Eagles | -4.5 | 54 | 63% | 63% | 63% | — |
| 7:00PM ET | North Carolina A&T Aggies @ Georgia State Panthers | -27 | — | 88% | 94% | 93% | — |
| 7:00PM ET | Indiana State Sycamores @ Purdue Boilermakers | — | — | 91% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 8:00PM ET | LIU Sharks @ Kansas Jayhawks | — | — | 95% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 8:00PM ET | Toledo Rockets @ Michigan State Spartans | -11.5 | 49.5 | 46% | 77% | 69% | — |
| 8:00PM ET | UTEP Miners @ Oklahoma Sooners | — | — | 89% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 9:00PM ET | Fresno State Bulldogs @ USC Trojans | -23.5 | 51.5 | 72% | 93% | 89% | — |
| 9:00PM ET | Miami Hurricanes @ Stanford Cardinal | +23.5 | 49.5 | 26% | 7% | 11% | — |
| KICKOFF | MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MODEL | MARKET | BLEND | EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00PM ET | Liberty Flames @ James Madison Dukes | -6.5 | 51.5 | 83% | 67% | 73% | +5.5pp INFO |
| 12:00PM ET | East Carolina Pirates @ Alabama Crimson Tide | -27.5 | 54.5 | 74% | 94% | 91% | — |
| 12:00PM ET | North Alabama Lions @ Arkansas Razorbacks | — | — | 94% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 12:00PM ET | Bryant Bulldogs @ Army Black Knights | — | — | 96% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 12:00PM ET | Tarleton State Texans @ Bowling Green Falcons | — | — | 92% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 12:00PM ET | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ West Virginia Mountaineers | -20.5 | 58 | 63% | 91% | 85% | — |
| 12:00PM ET | Oregon State Beavers @ Houston Cougars | -19 | 50.5 | 81% | 89% | 87% | — |
| 12:00PM ET | North Texas Mean Green @ Indiana Hoosiers | — | — | 81% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 12:00PM ET | Lafayette Leopards @ UConn Huskies | — | — | 96% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 12:00PM ET | Miami (OH) RedHawks @ Pittsburgh Panthers | -16.5 | 50.5 | 67% | 85% | 81% | — |
| 12:00PM ET | Ohio Bobcats @ Nebraska Cornhuskers | -23.5 | 47.5 | 50% | 93% | 86% | — |
| 12:00PM ET | New Hampshire Wildcats @ Syracuse Orange | — | — | 93% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 12:30PM ET | Ball State Cardinals @ Ohio State Buckeyes | — | — | 93% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 12:45PM ET | Kent State Golden Flashes @ South Carolina Gamecocks | — | — | 80% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 1:00PM ET | Duquesne Dukes @ Air Force Falcons | — | — | 93% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 1:00PM ET | Southeast Missouri State Redhawks @ Iowa State Cyclones | — | — | 97% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 1:00PM ET | Youngstown St Penguins @ Kentucky Wildcats | — | — | 95% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 2:00PM ET | Rhode Island Rams @ Temple Owls | — | — | 92% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 3:00PM ET | Tennessee State Tigers @ Georgia Bulldogs | — | — | 99% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 3:30PM ET | Maine Black Bears @ Appalachian State Mountaineers | — | — | 93% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 3:30PM ET | Baylor Bears @ Auburn Tigers | -7 | 60.5 | 62% | 71% | 68% | — |
| 3:30PM ET | Boise State Broncos @ Oregon Ducks | -24.5 | 52.5 | 79% | 94% | 91% | — |
| 3:30PM ET | Boston College Eagles @ Cincinnati Bearcats | -7.5 | 54.5 | 69% | 70% | 70% | — |
| 3:30PM ET | Citadel Bulldogs @ Charlotte 49ers | — | — | 87% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 3:30PM ET | Tulane Green Wave @ Duke Blue Devils | -10 | 52.5 | 60% | 78% | 73% | — |
| 3:30PM ET | Fordham Rams @ North Dakota State Bison | — | — | 61% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 3:30PM ET | Furman Paladins @ Tennessee Volunteers | — | — | 97% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 3:30PM ET | Marshall Thundering Herd @ Penn State Nittany Lions | -23.8 | 54.5 | 77% | 92% | 89% | — |
| 3:30PM ET | Towson Tigers @ Navy Midshipmen | — | — | 97% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 3:30PM ET | Texas State Bobcats @ Texas Longhorns | -30.5 | 59.5 | 78% | 96% | 93% | — |
| 3:45PM ET | Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane | +12.5 | 60.5 | 62% | 20% | 30% | — |
| 4:15PM ET | Northern Illinois Huskies @ Iowa Hawkeyes | -30.5 | 45.5 | 86% | 96% | 94% | — |
| 5:00PM ET | Alcorn State Braves @ Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles | -22.5 | — | 92% | 93% | 93% | — |
| 6:00PM ET | Wyoming Cowboys @ Colorado State Rams | -4 | 48.5 | 58% | 62% | 61% | — |
| 6:00PM ET | Norfolk State Spartans @ Old Dominion Monarchs | — | — | 97% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 7:00PM ET | Abilene Christian Wildcats @ Texas Tech Red Raiders | — | — | 98% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 7:00PM ET | Arkansas State Red Wolves @ Memphis Tigers | -10.5 | 55.5 | 70% | 77% | 75% | — |
| 7:00PM ET | Austin Peay Governors @ Vanderbilt Commodores | — | — | 97% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 7:00PM ET | Charleston Southern Buccaneers @ Georgia Southern Eagles | -27.5 | — | 95% | 95% | 95% | — |
| 7:00PM ET | Eastern Kentucky Colonels @ Jacksonville State Gamecocks | — | — | 96% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 7:00PM ET | Florida International Panthers @ South Florida Bulls | -12.5 | 54.5 | 74% | 79% | 78% | — |
| 7:00PM ET | Houston Baptist Huskies @ Rice Owls | — | — | 91% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 7:00PM ET | Idaho State Bengals @ Utah State Aggies | — | — | 94% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 7:00PM ET | Nicholls State Colonels @ Kansas State Wildcats | — | — | 97% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 7:00PM ET | Western Michigan Broncos @ Michigan Wolverines | -26.5 | 47.5 | 70% | 95% | 91% | — |
| 7:00PM ET | Murray State Racers @ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | — | — | 89% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 7:00PM ET | Missouri State Bears @ Texas A&M Aggies | — | — | 87% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 7:00PM ET | Sam Houston State Bearkats @ Troy Trojans | -15.5 | 51.5 | 78% | 86% | 84% | — |
| 7:00PM ET | Southeastern Louisiana Lions @ South Alabama Jaguars | — | — | 93% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 7:30PM ET | Clemson Tigers @ LSU Tigers | -10.5 | 50.5 | 59% | 77% | 72% | — |
| 7:30PM ET | Northwestern State Demons @ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | — | — | 95% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 7:30PM ET | UL Monroe Warhawks @ Mississippi State Bulldogs | -28.5 | 55.5 | 73% | 96% | 92% | — |
| 7:30PM ET | VMI Keydets @ Virginia Tech Hokies | — | — | 93% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 7:45PM ET | Florida Atlantic Owls @ Florida Gators | -26.5 | 58.5 | 75% | 94% | 90% | — |
| 8:00PM ET | Utah Tech Trailblazers @ BYU Cougars | — | — | 98% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 8:00PM ET | Lamar Cardinals @ Louisiana Ragin Cajuns | — | — | 94% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 8:00PM ET | South Dakota State Jackrabbits @ Northwestern Wildcats | — | — | 95% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 9:00PM ET | UNLV Rebels @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | +1.5 | 58.5 | 54% | 48% | 50% | — |
| 9:00PM ET | Mercyhurst Lakers @ New Mexico State Aggies | — | — | 90% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 9:30PM ET | Northern Arizona Lumberjacks @ Arizona Wildcats | — | — | 97% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 9:30PM ET | Portland State Vikings @ San Diego State Aztecs | — | — | 96% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 10:00PM ET | Morgan State Bears @ Arizona State Sun Devils | — | — | 96% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 10:00PM ET | Central Michigan Chippewas @ New Mexico Lobos | -12.5 | 49.5 | 72% | 81% | 78% | — |
| 10:00PM ET | Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils @ Sacramento State Hornets | — | — | 61% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 10:30PM ET | UCLA Bruins @ California Golden Bears | 0 | 54.5 | 64% | 49% | 54% | — |
| 10:30PM ET | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ Nevada Wolf Pack | +3 | 52.5 | 43% | 44% | 43% | — |
| KICKOFF | MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MODEL | MARKET | BLEND | EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4:00PM ET | Washington State Cougars @ Washington Huskies | -21.5 | 50.5 | 72% | 91% | 87% | — |
| 7:30PM ET | Louisville Cardinals @ Ole Miss Rebels | -6.5 | 55.5 | 73% | 69% | 70% | — |
| 7:30PM ET | Wisconsin Badgers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish | -20.5 | 47.5 | 86% | 91% | 90% | — |
| KICKOFF | MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MODEL | MARKET | BLEND | EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:30PM ET | SMU Mustangs @ Florida State Seminoles | +1.5 | 53.5 | 37% | 48% | 44% | — |
| KICKOFF | MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MODEL | MARKET | BLEND | EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8:00PM ET | Missouri Tigers @ Kansas Jayhawks | — | 52 | 48% | 32% | 37% | — |
| KICKOFF | MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MODEL | MARKET | BLEND | EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00PM ET | Arizona State Sun Devils @ Texas A&M Aggies | — | — | 71% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 12:00PM ET | Oklahoma Sooners @ Michigan Wolverines | -2.5 | 45.8 | 60% | 55% | 57% | — |
| 12:00PM ET | Oregon Ducks @ Oklahoma State Cowboys | +18 | 59.5 | 16% | 14% | 14% | — |
| 7:30PM ET | Iowa State Cyclones @ Iowa Hawkeyes | -12.5 | 41.5 | 69% | 83% | 79% | — |
| 7:30PM ET | Ohio State Buckeyes @ Texas Longhorns | -1.5 | 47.5 | 53% | 52% | 52% | — |
| 10:15PM ET | Arkansas Razorbacks @ Utah Utes | -10 | — | 82% | 76% | 78% | — |
| KICKOFF | MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MODEL | MARKET | BLEND | EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:30PM ET | LSU Tigers @ Ole Miss Rebels | -2.5 | 57.5 | 78% | 54% | 62% | +8.1pp INFO |
| 12:00PM ET | Georgia Bulldogs @ Arkansas Razorbacks | — | — | 26% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 3:30PM ET | Florida State Seminoles @ Alabama Crimson Tide | — | — | 82% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 3:30PM ET | SMU Mustangs @ Louisville Cardinals | — | — | 57% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 7:00PM ET | Florida Gators @ Auburn Tigers | — | — | 59% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 8:00PM ET | Houston Cougars @ Texas Tech Red Raiders | — | — | 76% | 0% | 0% | — |
| KICKOFF | MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MODEL | MARKET | BLEND | EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00PM ET | Oklahoma Sooners @ Georgia Bulldogs | — | — | 74% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 12:00PM ET | Texas A&M Aggies @ LSU Tigers | — | — | 51% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 12:00PM ET | Oregon Ducks @ USC Trojans | — | — | 46% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 12:00PM ET | Texas Longhorns @ Tennessee Volunteers | — | — | 47% | 0% | 0% | — |
| KICKOFF | MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MODEL | MARKET | BLEND | EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00PM ET | Miami Hurricanes @ Clemson Tigers | — | — | 45% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 12:00PM ET | Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ North Carolina Tar Heels | — | — | 22% | 0% | 0% | — |
| KICKOFF | MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MODEL | MARKET | BLEND | EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00PM ET | Georgia Bulldogs @ Alabama Crimson Tide | +2.5 | 49.5 | 51% | 44% | 46% | — |
| 12:00PM ET | Oklahoma Sooners @ Texas Longhorns | -6.5 | 48.5 | 70% | 66% | 67% | — |
| 12:00PM ET | USC Trojans @ Penn State Nittany Lions | — | — | 63% | 0% | 0% | — |
| KICKOFF | MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MODEL | MARKET | BLEND | EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00PM ET | Alabama Crimson Tide @ Tennessee Volunteers | — | — | 52% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 12:00PM ET | Auburn Tigers @ Georgia Bulldogs | — | — | 85% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 12:00PM ET | Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ BYU Cougars | — | — | 48% | 0% | 0% | — |
| 12:00PM ET | Ohio State Buckeyes @ Indiana Hoosiers | — | — | 64% | 0% | 0% | — |
| KICKOFF | MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MODEL | MARKET | BLEND | EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:30PM ET | Miami Hurricanes @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish | -6.5 | — | 66% | 67% | 67% | — |
| KICKOFF | MATCHUP | SPREAD | TOTAL | MODEL | MARKET | BLEND | EDGE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00PM ET | Michigan Wolverines @ Ohio State Buckeyes | — | — | 76% | 0% | 0% | — |
Probabilities are home-win. Spread is the home line (negative = home favored). MODEL is the raw Elo, MARKET the de-vigged consensus median across the books carrying the game, BLEND the published number — market-over-model at the weight stated below. EDGE marks where the blend diverges from the consensus beyond the house thresholds (≥55% and ≥5 points); it is informational, never a pick. odds events grid (marquee games only — the full schedule has not posted; Week 0 is not covered yet). Neither feed carries venue data, so the listed home team gets full home field even for neutral-site kickoff games — those rows overstate the home side slightly.
cfb-elo-v0 (informational) — Walk-forward Elo over every result since 2015 (regressed one-third toward the mean each offseason — the fraction was fit out-of-sample, as was the treatment of non-FBS opponents), home field estimated from the data (77 Elo points). Market: cross-book consensus moneylines, de-vigged per book and medianed across ≥3 books, blended 70/30 market-over-model — the blend weight is a market-efficiency prior, not a fitted number. Validated out-of-sample: replaying 2021-2025 from preseason priors only, game logloss 0.5736 beat flat 50/50 (0.6931), home climatology (0.6603) and a no-margin Elo (0.5926); win-total MAE 1.937 beat prior-year wins (2.188) and flat .500 (2.27).
Validated out-of-sample: replaying 2021-2025 from preseason priors only, game logloss 0.5736 beat flat 50/50 (0.6931), home climatology (0.6603) and a no-margin Elo (0.5926); win-total MAE 1.937 beat prior-year wins (2.188) and flat .500 (2.27).
Out-of-sample validation says the probabilities are honest. It does not make any single divergence a pick — that bar is a graded record, and it starts with Week 1.
v0 — informational only: Elo-vs-market observations, no picks. Edges are where the published blend diverges from the consensus beyond the house thresholds (≥55% and ≥5 points); they are noted, not recommended.
Every edge on this page was published before kickoff and will be graded after it — misses included, on the insights ledger, the same way every other vertical earns its record. Until then the board is exactly what it says: informational.