Every play we ever published · Nothing deleted

The Record

Two tiers, both public. The Cardis where the money actually goes — a fixed budget per sport, allocated to our strongest edges by quarter-Kelly staking, journaled before results exist and graded in public. Stakes publish in units — 1u is 1% of that sport's budget; the dollar sizes stay internal. The Board is every edge that cleared our floors — leans we track and grade as calibration evidence, with no money attached. The rules are in The Standard.

Right now: our MLB probabilities trail the sportsbooks slightly (0.6790 vs 0.6788 — lower is better). Every number below, wins and whiffs, is published as-is.

THE CARD · WHERE THE MONEY ACTUALLY GOES

Card plays graded

0.0%

Card win rate

FORMING · n=4

−54.5u

Units won / lost

FORMING · n=4

—

ROI · money staked

FORMING · n=4

Plays deleted

THIS WEEK'S ALLOCATION · JOURNALED, NOT YET SETTLED7.0u STAKED

EVENT	THE PLAY	MODEL	BOOK	EDGE	STAKE
FedEx St. Jude Championship	Scheffler, Scottie · top 20 (-400)	85.6%	76.7%	+8.9pp	7u

SETTLED CARD PLAYS · GRADED IN UNITS (1u = 1% OF BUDGET)54.5u STAKED ALL-TIME

DATE	EVENT	THE PLAY	STAKE	PRICE	RESULT	P&L
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	MacIntyre, Robert · top 20	16u	+2200	Finished 28	−100%
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Matsuyama, Hideki · top 20	16u	+240	Finished T21	−100%
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Schauffele, Xander · top 10	12.5u	+500	Finished T14	−100%
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Cantlay, Patrick · top 10	10u	+850	Finished T21	−100%

THE BOARD · LEANS, NOT PLAYS

Every edge that cleared our floors, tracked and graded — this is the calibration evidence the Card is drawn from. No money is allocated to board rows. Board history predates the Card (August 2026): those rows were flat-stake tracking, and they stay published exactly as graded.

DATESPORTMARKETPRICEMODELBOOKRESULT

Aug 30GLFXander Schauffele Top 5 34%TOUR Championship—34%6%LOSS

Aug 30GLFRory McIlroy Top 5 38%TOUR Championship—38%11%WIN

Aug 30GLFPatrick Cantlay Top 5 23%TOUR Championship—23%3%LOSS

Aug 30GLFHideki Matsuyama Top 5 20%TOUR Championship—20%2%LOSS

Aug 30GLFTommy Fleetwood Top 5 25%TOUR Championship—25%10%LOSS

Aug 30GLFSi Woo Kim Top 5 19%TOUR Championship—19%5%LOSS

Aug 30GLFWyndham Clark Top 5 20%TOUR Championship—20%10%LOSS

Aug 30GLFAlex Fitzpatrick Top 5 9%TOUR Championship—9%4%WIN

Aug 30GLFRussell Henley Top 5 18%TOUR Championship—18%13%WIN

Aug 30GLFXander Schauffele Top 10 58%TOUR Championship—58%19%LOSS

Aug 30GLFPatrick Cantlay Top 10 47%TOUR Championship—47%13%LOSS

Aug 30GLFHideki Matsuyama Top 10 39%TOUR Championship—39%6%LOSS

Aug 30GLFRory McIlroy Top 10 61%TOUR Championship—61%28%WIN

Aug 30GLFSi Woo Kim Top 10 40%TOUR Championship—40%17%LOSS

Aug 30GLFKristoffer Reitan Top 10 25%TOUR Championship—25%4%LOSS

Aug 30GLFTommy Fleetwood Top 10 48%TOUR Championship—48%28%LOSS

Aug 30GLFWyndham Clark Top 10 39%TOUR Championship—39%29%LOSS

Aug 30GLFAlex Fitzpatrick Top 10 22%TOUR Championship—22%15%WIN

Aug 30GLFRobert MacIntyre Top 20 65%TOUR Championship—65%6%LOSS

Aug 30GLFHideki Matsuyama Top 20 74%TOUR Championship—74%33%LOSS

Aug 30GLFKristoffer Reitan Top 20 55%TOUR Championship—55%25%LOSS

Aug 30GLFPatrick Cantlay Top 20 82%TOUR Championship—82%54%LOSS

Aug 30GLFXander Schauffele Top 20 87%TOUR Championship—87%62%WIN

Aug 30GLFSi Woo Kim Top 20 78%TOUR Championship—78%61%WIN

Aug 30GLFRory McIlroy Top 20 88%TOUR Championship—88%75%WIN

Aug 30GLFTommy Fleetwood Top 20 82%TOUR Championship—82%75%WIN

Aug 30MLBUnder 8BOS @ NYY———LOSS

Aug 30MLBUnder 9HOU @ NYM———LOSS

Aug 29MLBUnder 8BOS @ NYY———WIN

Aug 29MLBOver 7.5MIA @ WSH———WIN

Aug 29MLBOver 9.5BAL @ OAK———LOSS

Aug 29MLBOver 7.5ARI @ SF———WIN

Aug 15MLBUnder 9.5STL @ CHC———LOSS

Aug 15MLBOver 7.5COL @ SF———WIN

Aug 15MLBUnder 9.5MIA @ CIN———LOSS

Aug 15MLBUnder 9ARI @ ATL———LOSS

Aug 15MLBOver 9.5TEX @ OAK———LOSS

Aug 14MLBOver 7.5COL @ SF———LOSS

Aug 13MLBOver 8.5CHC @ WSH———LOSS

Aug 12MLBOver 9.5TB @ OAK———WIN

Aug 12MLBOver 9.5CHC @ WSH———WIN

Aug 12MLBUnder 8.5SEA @ NYY———LOSS

Aug 12MLBUnder 9CIN @ CHW———WIN

Aug 11MLBUnder 8SEA @ NYY———WIN

Aug 11MLBUnder 9TEX @ LAA———WIN

Aug 10GLFJustin Thomas Top 5 15%Wyndham Championship—15%3%LOSS

Aug 10GLFJackson Koivun Top 5 16%Wyndham Championship—16%5%LOSS

Aug 10GLFSungjae Im Top 5 11%Wyndham Championship—11%2%LOSS

Aug 10GLFBen Kohles Top 5 7%Wyndham Championship—7%2%LOSS

Aug 10GLFJackson Suber Top 5 7%Wyndham Championship—7%2%LOSS

Xander Schauffele Top 5 34%

TOUR Championship

LOSS

GLFAug 3034% / 6%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK34% / 6%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+28.4 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished T14

Rory McIlroy Top 5 38%

TOUR Championship

WIN

GLFAug 3038% / 11%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK38% / 11%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+27.0 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished T4

Patrick Cantlay Top 5 23%

TOUR Championship

LOSS

GLFAug 3023% / 3%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK23% / 3%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+19.8 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished T21

Hideki Matsuyama Top 5 20%

TOUR Championship

LOSS

GLFAug 3020% / 2%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK20% / 2%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+18.3 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished T21

Tommy Fleetwood Top 5 25%

TOUR Championship

LOSS

GLFAug 3025% / 10%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK25% / 10%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+15.3 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished T11

Si Woo Kim Top 5 19%

TOUR Championship

LOSS

GLFAug 3019% / 5%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK19% / 5%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+14.4 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished T14

Wyndham Clark Top 5 20%

TOUR Championship

LOSS

GLFAug 3020% / 10%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK20% / 10%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+10.5 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished T21

Alex Fitzpatrick Top 5 9%

TOUR Championship

WIN

GLFAug 309% / 4%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK9% / 4%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+5.1 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished T4

Russell Henley Top 5 18%

TOUR Championship

WIN

GLFAug 3018% / 13%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK18% / 13%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+5.0 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished T4

Xander Schauffele Top 10 58%

TOUR Championship

LOSS

GLFAug 3058% / 19%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK58% / 19%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+39.3 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished T14

Patrick Cantlay Top 10 47%

TOUR Championship

LOSS

GLFAug 3047% / 13%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK47% / 13%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+33.8 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished T21

Hideki Matsuyama Top 10 39%

TOUR Championship

LOSS

GLFAug 3039% / 6%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK39% / 6%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+33.2 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished T21

Rory McIlroy Top 10 61%

TOUR Championship

WIN

GLFAug 3061% / 28%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK61% / 28%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+32.6 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished T4

Si Woo Kim Top 10 40%

TOUR Championship

LOSS

GLFAug 3040% / 17%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK40% / 17%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+22.8 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished T14

Kristoffer Reitan Top 10 25%

TOUR Championship

LOSS

GLFAug 3025% / 4%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK25% / 4%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+21.5 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished 25

Tommy Fleetwood Top 10 48%

TOUR Championship

LOSS

GLFAug 3048% / 28%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK48% / 28%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+20.5 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished T11

Wyndham Clark Top 10 39%

TOUR Championship

LOSS

GLFAug 3039% / 29%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK39% / 29%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+10.4 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished T21

Alex Fitzpatrick Top 10 22%

TOUR Championship

WIN

GLFAug 3022% / 15%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK22% / 15%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+6.7 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished T4

Robert MacIntyre Top 20 65%

TOUR Championship

LOSS

GLFAug 3065% / 6%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK65% / 6%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+59.4 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished 28

Hideki Matsuyama Top 20 74%

TOUR Championship

LOSS

GLFAug 3074% / 33%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK74% / 33%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+41.3 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished T21

Kristoffer Reitan Top 20 55%

TOUR Championship

LOSS

GLFAug 3055% / 25%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK55% / 25%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+30.3 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished 25

Patrick Cantlay Top 20 82%

TOUR Championship

LOSS

GLFAug 3082% / 54%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK82% / 54%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+28.1 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished T21

Xander Schauffele Top 20 87%

TOUR Championship

WIN

GLFAug 3087% / 62%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK87% / 62%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+25.4 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished T14

Si Woo Kim Top 20 78%

TOUR Championship

WIN

GLFAug 3078% / 61%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK78% / 61%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+17.0 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished T14

Rory McIlroy Top 20 88%

TOUR Championship

WIN

GLFAug 3088% / 75%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK88% / 75%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+13.3 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished T4

Tommy Fleetwood Top 20 82%

TOUR Championship

WIN

GLFAug 3082% / 75%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK82% / 75%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+7.2 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished T11

Under 8

BOS @ NYY

LOSS

MLBAug 30— / —

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK— / —

EDGE AT PUBLISH—

RESULTFinal 16-1

Under 9

HOU @ NYM

LOSS

MLBAug 30— / —

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK— / —

EDGE AT PUBLISH—

RESULTFinal 3-6

Under 8

BOS @ NYY

WIN

MLBAug 29— / —

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK— / —

EDGE AT PUBLISH—

RESULTFinal 0-6

Over 7.5

MIA @ WSH

WIN

MLBAug 29— / —

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK— / —

EDGE AT PUBLISH—

RESULTFinal 5-4

Over 9.5

BAL @ OAK

LOSS

MLBAug 29— / —

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK— / —

EDGE AT PUBLISH—

RESULTFinal 3-5

Over 7.5

ARI @ SF

WIN

MLBAug 29— / —

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK— / —

EDGE AT PUBLISH—

RESULTFinal 7-2

Under 9.5

STL @ CHC

LOSS

MLBAug 15— / —

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK— / —

EDGE AT PUBLISH—

RESULTFinal 4-8

Over 7.5

COL @ SF

WIN

MLBAug 15— / —

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK— / —

EDGE AT PUBLISH—

RESULTFinal 7-1

Under 9.5

MIA @ CIN

LOSS

MLBAug 15— / —

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK— / —

EDGE AT PUBLISH—

RESULTFinal 4-8

Under 9

ARI @ ATL

LOSS

MLBAug 15— / —

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK— / —

EDGE AT PUBLISH—

RESULTFinal 3-10

Over 9.5

TEX @ OAK

LOSS

MLBAug 15— / —

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK— / —

EDGE AT PUBLISH—

RESULTFinal 3-5

Over 7.5

COL @ SF

LOSS

MLBAug 14— / —

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK— / —

EDGE AT PUBLISH—

RESULTFinal 2-5

Over 8.5

CHC @ WSH

LOSS

MLBAug 13— / —

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK— / —

EDGE AT PUBLISH—

RESULTFinal 7-0

Over 9.5

TB @ OAK

WIN

MLBAug 12— / —

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK— / —

EDGE AT PUBLISH—

RESULTFinal 4-8

Over 9.5

CHC @ WSH

WIN

MLBAug 12— / —

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK— / —

EDGE AT PUBLISH—

RESULTFinal 6-12

Under 8.5

SEA @ NYY

LOSS

MLBAug 12— / —

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK— / —

EDGE AT PUBLISH—

RESULTFinal 10-5

Under 9

CIN @ CHW

WIN

MLBAug 12— / —

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK— / —

EDGE AT PUBLISH—

RESULTFinal 5-0

Under 8

SEA @ NYY

WIN

MLBAug 11— / —

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK— / —

EDGE AT PUBLISH—

RESULTFinal 4-1

Under 9

TEX @ LAA

WIN

MLBAug 11— / —

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK— / —

EDGE AT PUBLISH—

RESULTFinal 3-2

Justin Thomas Top 5 15%

Wyndham Championship

LOSS

GLFAug 1015% / 3%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK15% / 3%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+12.5 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished T14

Jackson Koivun Top 5 16%

Wyndham Championship

LOSS

GLFAug 1016% / 5%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK16% / 5%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+10.7 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished T29

Sungjae Im Top 5 11%

Wyndham Championship

LOSS

GLFAug 1011% / 2%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK11% / 2%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+8.8 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished T14

Ben Kohles Top 5 7%

Wyndham Championship

LOSS

GLFAug 107% / 2%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK7% / 2%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+5.5 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished T29

Jackson Suber Top 5 7%

Wyndham Championship

LOSS

GLFAug 107% / 2%

PRICE—

MODEL / THE BOOK7% / 2%

EDGE AT PUBLISH+5.4 pts vs the book

RESULTFinished T22

SHOWING 50 OF 50 GRADED LEANS · NOTHING DELETED, NOTHING RESTATED
THE ARCHIVED RECEIPTS CARRY NO JOURNALED PRICE — PRICE, CLV, AND UNITS FOR THE CURRENT ERA ARE KEPT PICK-BY-PICK ON THE NUMBERS →

GOLF · TOUR CHAMPIONSHIP · THU

Every golf projection: timestamped before lock, graded once official numbers post.

Walk-forward benchmark: model fit on data through 2024, then scored on 45 events in 2025 and 22 events in 2026 against real DraftKings totals.

WALK-FORWARD BENCHMARK · FIT ≤2024 · 45 EVENTS 2025 / 22 EVENTS 2026 · VS REAL DK TOTALS

walk-forward = tested on games it had never seen

average projection miss — lower is better

.18

Proj MAE 2025 (DK pts) · vs. public baseline 21.22

average projection miss — lower is better

.52

Proj MAE 2026 (DK pts) · vs. public baseline 20.72

.6%

Cash win rate 2026 (double-up · 90% payout)*

average return per dollar entered, in simulation

.3%

Cash ROI 2026 (double-up · 90% payout)*

Cash win rate 2025 / 2026 · 90% payout*48.9% / 63.6%

Cash ROI 2025 / 2026 · 90% payout*−2.2% / +27.3%

Ownership MAE 2025 / 20262.23pp / 2.53pp

* GPP settled on an 85%-payout top-heavy template curve (1st prize to rank 1 only); cash on a ~90%-payout double-up. Opponent field sampled from real ownership; heavy-tailed sample.

THE PICKS — GOLF

DATE	GAME	THE CALL	RESULT	GRADE
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Jackson Koivun Top 5 14% · +11.9pp	Finished T31	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Hideki Matsuyama Top 5 13% · +11.2pp	Finished T5	HIT
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Jacob Bridgeman Top 5 9% · +7.9pp	Finished T26	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Corey Conners Top 5 8% · +6.6pp	Finished T20	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Ryan Gerard Top 5 12% · +6.6pp	Finished T8	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Keegan Bradley Top 5 9% · +6.5pp	Finished T15	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Russell Henley Top 5 13% · +6.4pp	Finished T20	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Sungjae Im Top 5 7% · +5.4pp	Finished T15	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	J.J. Spaun Top 10 25% · +22.8pp	Finished T50	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Hideki Matsuyama Top 10 23% · +18.2pp	Finished T5	HIT
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Jackson Koivun Top 10 24% · +17.1pp	Finished T31	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Jacob Bridgeman Top 10 17% · +12.8pp	Finished T26	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Max Greyserman Top 10 13% · +11.3pp	Finished T50	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Corey Conners Top 10 15% · +11.2pp	Finished T20	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Keegan Bradley Top 10 17% · +8.9pp	Finished T15	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Jordan Spieth Top 10 10% · +8.7pp	Finished T31	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Russell Henley Top 10 25% · +8.3pp	Finished T20	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Sungjae Im Top 10 14% · +7.9pp	Finished T15	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Ryan Gerard Top 10 21% · +6.4pp	Finished T8	HIT
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Davis Thompson Top 10 15% · +6.3pp	Finished T8	HIT
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	J.J. Spaun Top 20 42% · +30.7pp	Finished T50	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Nicolai Hojgaard Top 20 34% · +29.5pp	Finished T61	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Hideki Matsuyama Top 20 40% · +23.6pp	Finished T5	HIT
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Jackson Koivun Top 20 39% · +19.8pp	Finished T31	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Jackson Suber Top 20 22% · +19.7pp	Finished T50	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Beau Hossler Top 20 19% · +18.2pp	Finished T45	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Tony Finau Top 20 21% · +17.9pp	Finished T71	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Nick Taylor Top 20 19% · +17.5pp	Finished T61	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Max Greyserman Top 20 23% · +16.9pp	Finished T50	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Jacob Bridgeman Top 20 30% · +16pp	Finished T26	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Christiaan Bezuidenhout Top 20 19% · +15.5pp	Finished T45	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Corey Conners Top 20 28% · +14.5pp	Finished T20	HIT
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Jordan Spieth Top 20 21% · +13.5pp	Finished T31	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Keegan Bradley Top 20 31% · +8.5pp	Finished T15	HIT
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Sungjae Im Top 20 27% · +7.6pp	Finished T15	HIT
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Davis Thompson Top 20 28% · +6.9pp	Finished T8	HIT
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Russell Henley Top 20 43% · +6.9pp	Finished T20	HIT
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Patrick Fishburn Top 20 11% · +6pp	Finished T50	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Karl Vilips Top 20 10% · +5.8pp	Finished T65	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Ben Kohles Top 20 18% · +5.4pp	Finished T26	MISS
Aug 3	Rocket Classic	Johnny Keefer Top 20 18% · +5.2pp	Finished 60	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Justin Thomas Top 5 15% · +12.5pp	Finished T14	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Jackson Koivun Top 5 16% · +10.7pp	Finished T29	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Sungjae Im Top 5 11% · +8.8pp	Finished T14	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Ben Kohles Top 5 7% · +5.5pp	Finished T29	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Jackson Suber Top 5 7% · +5.4pp	Finished T22	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Hideki Matsuyama Top 5 16% · +5.3pp	Finished T7	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Aaron Rai Top 10 23% · +21.9pp	Finished T29	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Doug Ghim Top 10 19% · +14.2pp	Finished T19	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Justin Thomas Top 10 25% · +13pp	Finished T14	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Bud Cauley Top 10 15% · +12.8pp	Finished T54	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Michael Kim Top 10 12% · +10.5pp	Finished T54	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Sungjae Im Top 10 19% · +10.1pp	Finished T14	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Eric Cole Top 10 14% · +9.4pp	Finished T29	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Christiaan Bezuidenhout Top 10 11% · +7.9pp	Finished T38	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Jackson Koivun Top 10 27% · +7.6pp	Finished T29	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Andrew Novak Top 10 11% · +7.6pp	Finished T7	HIT
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Thorbjorn Olesen Top 10 7% · +5.7pp	Finished T61	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	John Parry Top 10 7% · +5.7pp	Finished T38	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Ben Kohles Top 10 14% · +5.3pp	Finished T29	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Cameron Young Top 20 56% · +54.1pp	Finished T61	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Alex Fitzpatrick Top 20 36% · +33.5pp	Finished T61	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Maverick McNealy Top 20 35% · +32.8pp	Finished T25	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Aaron Rai Top 20 38% · +30.8pp	Finished T29	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Keegan Bradley Top 20 33% · +29pp	Finished T49	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Keith Mitchell Top 20 27% · +25.2pp	Finished T38	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Brooks Koepka Top 20 25% · +22.5pp	Finished T67	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Nick Taylor Top 20 24% · +22.5pp	Finished T72	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Matt McCarty Top 20 23% · +20.3pp	Finished T29	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Chris Kirk Top 20 20% · +18.2pp	Finished T72	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Max Greyserman Top 20 19% · +17.7pp	Finished T77	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Bud Cauley Top 20 28% · +16.9pp	Finished T54	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Marco Penge Top 20 16% · +15.3pp	Finished T38	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Ricky Castillo Top 20 20% · +14.9pp	Finished T49	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Andrew Putnam Top 20 19% · +14.9pp	Finished T54	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Mackenzie Hughes Top 20 16% · +14.2pp	Finished T29	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Lee Hodges Top 20 18% · +13.3pp	Finished T72	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Doug Ghim Top 20 35% · +13.3pp	Finished T19	HIT
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Tony Finau Top 20 15% · +13pp	Finished T61	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Michael Kim Top 20 23% · +12.5pp	Finished T54	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Kristoffer Ventura Top 20 18% · +12.4pp	Finished T54	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Rasmus Hojgaard Top 20 13% · +12.1pp	Finished T49	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Matti Schmid Top 20 13% · +11.1pp	Finished T72	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Taylor Pendrith Top 20 10% · +9.2pp	Finished T38	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Thorbjorn Olesen Top 20 16% · +7.7pp	Finished T61	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	John Parry Top 20 15% · +7pp	Finished T38	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Tom Hoge Top 20 11% · +6.8pp	Finished T29	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Eric Cole Top 20 26% · +6.2pp	Finished T29	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Christiaan Bezuidenhout Top 20 24% · +6.2pp	Finished T38	MISS
Aug 10	Wyndham Championship	Austin Smotherman Top 20 12% · +5.1pp	Finished T67	MISS
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Xander Schauffele Top 5 34% · +28.4pp	Finished T14	MISS
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Rory McIlroy Top 5 38% · +27pp	Finished T4	HIT
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Patrick Cantlay Top 5 23% · +19.8pp	Finished T21	MISS
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Hideki Matsuyama Top 5 20% · +18.3pp	Finished T21	MISS
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Tommy Fleetwood Top 5 25% · +15.3pp	Finished T11	MISS
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Si Woo Kim Top 5 19% · +14.4pp	Finished T14	MISS
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Wyndham Clark Top 5 20% · +10.5pp	Finished T21	MISS
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Alex Fitzpatrick Top 5 9% · +5.1pp	Finished T4	HIT
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Russell Henley Top 5 18% · +5pp	Finished T4	HIT
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Xander Schauffele Top 10 58% · +39.3pp	Finished T14	MISS
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Patrick Cantlay Top 10 47% · +33.8pp	Finished T21	MISS
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Hideki Matsuyama Top 10 39% · +33.2pp	Finished T21	MISS
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Rory McIlroy Top 10 61% · +32.6pp	Finished T4	HIT
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Si Woo Kim Top 10 40% · +22.8pp	Finished T14	MISS
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Kristoffer Reitan Top 10 25% · +21.5pp	Finished 25	MISS
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Tommy Fleetwood Top 10 48% · +20.5pp	Finished T11	MISS
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Wyndham Clark Top 10 39% · +10.4pp	Finished T21	MISS
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Alex Fitzpatrick Top 10 22% · +6.7pp	Finished T4	HIT
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Robert MacIntyre Top 20 65% · +59.4pp	Finished 28	MISS
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Hideki Matsuyama Top 20 74% · +41.3pp	Finished T21	MISS
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Kristoffer Reitan Top 20 55% · +30.3pp	Finished 25	MISS
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Patrick Cantlay Top 20 82% · +28.1pp	Finished T21	MISS
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Xander Schauffele Top 20 87% · +25.4pp	Finished T14	HIT
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Si Woo Kim Top 20 78% · +17pp	Finished T14	HIT
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Rory McIlroy Top 20 88% · +13.3pp	Finished T4	HIT
Aug 30	TOUR Championship	Tommy Fleetwood Top 20 82% · +7.2pp	Finished T11	HIT

Golf picks follow the same rule as soccer: an outright or placement is committed only when the model materially beats the book, and only on a real market — never a longshot the books price at the floor. How we define a pick → The Standard. Misses show in red, same weight as hits.

MLB · MLB · REGULAR SEASON

Every MLB game priced pre-pitch; the picks record starts with the first material edge.

Live validation, every graded game journaled before first pitch: n=570 games. Log-loss — model 0.6790, published blend 0.6777, market 0.6788. The published blend is ahead of the market so far.

LIVE VALIDATION · N=570 GRADED GAMES · JOURNALED PRE-PITCH

how wrong our probabilities were — lower is better

0.6790

Log-loss — model (lower is better)

how wrong our probabilities were — lower is better

0.6777

Log-loss — published blend

how wrong our probabilities were — lower is better

0.6788

Log-loss — market

real games the model was tested on

570

Games journaled pre-pitch and graded

Log-loss — model (lower is better)0.6790

Log-loss — published blend0.6777

Log-loss — market0.6788

Every priced game counts here — calibration is the whole board, not just the picks.

THE PICKS — MLB

DATE	GAME	THE CALL	RESULT	GRADE
Jul 3	STL @ CHC	Under 10.5 · model 9.4 · +14.3pp	Final 1-17	MISS
Jul 3	NYM @ ATL	Under 9.5 · model 8.6 · +13.4pp	Final 5-3	HIT
Jul 3	SF @ COL	Under 11 · model 10.2 · +14.6pp	Final 15-3	MISS
Jul 3	MIA @ OAK	Under 10.5 · model 9.7 · +12pp	Final 5-12	MISS
Jul 4	MIN @ NYY	Under 10 · model 9.7 · +11.6pp	Final 4-11	MISS
Jul 4	SF @ COL	Under 11.5 · model 10.4 · +13.2pp	Final 4-6	HIT
Jul 4	MIA @ OAK	Under 11 · model 9.7 · +18.8pp	Final 2-7	HIT
Jul 4	MIL @ ARI	Under 9 · model 8.7 · +12.2pp	Final 4-3	HIT
Jul 5	NYM @ ATL	Under 9 · model 8.7 · +11.9pp	Final 9-10	MISS
Jul 5	DET @ TEX	Under 8 · model 7.9 · +10.6pp	Final 3-6	MISS
Jul 5	SF @ COL	Under 13 · model 10.4 · +25pp	Final 7-6	PUSH
Jul 5	MIL @ ARI	Under 9 · model 8.7 · +11.8pp	Final 2-3	HIT
Jul 5	SD @ LAD	Under 9.5 · model 8.6 · +12.8pp	Final 2-5	HIT
Jul 7	TOR @ SF	Over 7.5 · model 9.4 · +10.3pp	Final 3-9	HIT
Jul 9	BOS @ CHW	Under 9 · model 8.3 · +15.3pp	Final 1-2	HIT
Jul 9	PHI @ CIN	Under 9.5 · model 8.9 · +10.6pp	Final 0-1	HIT
Jul 9	ARI @ SD	Under 9 · model 8.5 · +14.2pp	Final 1-3	HIT
Jul 9	COL @ SF	Over 8.25 · model 11.4 · +15.6pp	Final 8-2	HIT
Jul 10	PHI @ DET	Under 9 · model 8.1 · +17.3pp	Final 10-2	MISS
Jul 10	SEA @ TB	Under 8 · model 7.4 · +16pp	Final 7-2	MISS
Jul 10	COL @ SF	Over 8.5 · model 10.8 · +12.1pp	Final 3-4	MISS
Jul 11	CHC @ CIN	Under 10 · model 8.9 · +17.7pp	Final 3-5	HIT
Jul 11	TOR @ SD	Under 8 · model 7.7 · +13.1pp	Final 8-7	MISS
Jul 12	CHC @ CIN	Under 9.5 · model 8.9 · +10.3pp	Final 4-8	MISS
Jul 12	CLE @ MIA	Under 8 · model 7.9 · +11pp	Final 2-5	HIT
Jul 12	COL @ SF	Over 8.5 · model 11.2 · +14.2pp	Final 3-1	MISS
Jul 17	TB @ BOS	Under 8.5 · model 7.7 · +13pp	Final 10-0	MISS
Jul 17	LAD @ NYY	Under 9 · model 8.8 · +11.5pp	Final 1-2	HIT
Jul 17	TB @ BOS	Under 8.5 · model 7.7 · +13pp	Final 5-3	HIT
Jul 17	MIN @ CHC	Under 10.5 · model 9.7 · +12pp	Final 2-5	HIT
Jul 17	SD @ KC	Under 10 · model 8.6 · +20.5pp	Final 7-6	MISS
Jul 17	CIN @ COL	Under 12 · model 11.2 · +14.2pp	Final 2-7	HIT
Jul 18	CIN @ COL	Under 13 · model 11.1 · +20.3pp	Final 10-3	PUSH
Jul 18	TB @ BOS	Under 9.5 · model 7.7 · +20.6pp	Final 7-6	MISS
Jul 18	TEX @ ATL	Under 9 · model 8.4 · +14.4pp	Final 6-7	MISS
Jul 18	SD @ KC	Under 11 · model 8.7 · +26.1pp	Final 6-1	HIT
Jul 18	STL @ ARI	Under 9 · model 8.7 · +11.9pp	Final 5-3	HIT
Jul 19	TB @ BOS	Under 8.5 · model 7.8 · +11.7pp	Final 6-1	HIT
Jul 19	TEX @ ATL	Under 9 · model 8.6 · +13.4pp	Final 8-5	MISS
Jul 19	SD @ KC	Under 10 · model 8.6 · +20pp	Final 2-19	MISS
Jul 19	MIN @ CHC	Over 7.5 · model 9.6 · +11.6pp	Final 10-1	HIT
Jul 19	DET @ LAA	Under 9 · model 8.5 · +13.9pp	Final 3-2	HIT
Jul 19	STL @ ARI	Under 9 · model 8.7 · +12pp	Final 8-7	MISS
Jul 19	LAD @ NYY	Over 7.5 · model 9.4 · +10.6pp	Final 2-1	MISS
Jul 20	SD @ ATL	Under 9 · model 8.4 · +14.5pp	Final 3-2	HIT
Jul 20	SF @ KC	Under 10.5 · model 9.2 · +15.8pp	Final 4-3	HIT
Jul 20	DET @ CHC	Under 11.5 · model 8.2 · +29.4pp	Final 6-8	MISS
Jul 21	SD @ ATL	Under 9 · model 8.3 · +15.4pp	Final 3-8	MISS
Jul 21	MIA @ HOU	Under 9 · model 8.8 · +11.2pp	Final 5-3	HIT
Jul 22	BAL @ BOS	Under 9 · model 8.2 · +16.7pp	Final 6-3	PUSH
Jul 22	CIN @ SEA	Under 8 · model 7.4 · +16pp	Final 3-5	PUSH
Jul 22	STL @ LAA	Under 9 · model 8.9 · +10.8pp	Final 0-1	HIT
Jul 22	LAD @ PHI	Under 9.5 · model 8.8 · +11.7pp	Final 5-9	MISS
Jul 22	BAL @ BOS	Under 9 · model 8.2 · +16.7pp	Final 1-5	HIT
Jul 26	TOR @ BOS	Under 8 · model 7.3 · +16.6pp	Final 6-1	HIT
Jul 26	KC @ DET	Under 9.25 · model 8.6 · +13.1pp	Final 4-5	HIT
Jul 26	LAD @ NYM	Under 9.5 · model 8.9 · +10.6pp	Final 8-3	MISS
Jul 26	COL @ MIL	Over 7.5 · model 9.8 · +13.6pp	Final 11-2	HIT
Jul 27	SEA @ TEX	Under 8 · model 7.5 · +14.8pp	Final 7-3	MISS
Jul 27	CHC @ STL	Under 9.5 · model 8.7 · +11.8pp	Final 3-7	MISS
Jul 27	BOS @ OAK	Over 9.5 · model 12.3 · +13.5pp	Final 2-4	MISS
Jul 28	CLE @ CIN	Under 9 · model 8 · +18.2pp	Final 5-6	MISS
Jul 28	BAL @ DET	Under 9.25 · model 8.4 · +14.4pp	Final 14-0	MISS
Jul 28	CLE @ CIN	Under 9 · model 8 · +18.4pp	Final 2-0	HIT
Jul 28	SEA @ LAD	Under 9.5 · model 8.7 · +11.4pp	Final 6-7	MISS
Jul 29	CLE @ CIN	Under 9 · model 7.9 · +17.9pp	Final 1-6	HIT
Jul 29	ATL @ NYM	Over 7.5 · model 9.3 · +11.6pp	Final 0-1	MISS
Jul 29	BOS @ OAK	Under 10.5 · model 10.1 · +10.1pp	Final 2-4	HIT
Jul 29	SEA @ LAD	Under 9.25 · model 8.7 · +12.2pp	Final 4-2	HIT
Jul 31	NYY @ CHC	Under 9 · model 8.5 · +15.1pp	Final 0-2	HIT
Aug 1	MIA @ NYM	Under 9 · model 8.8 · +10.4pp	Final 2-6	HIT
Aug 1	NYY @ CHC	Over 6.5 · model 8.3 · +13.7pp	Final 5-2	HIT
Aug 2	STL @ TOR	Under 9 · model 8.4 · +14.8pp	Final 1-5	HIT
Aug 2	NYY @ CHC	Over 6.5 · model 8.3 · +10.7pp	Final 1-2	MISS
Aug 2	MIL @ LAA	Over 7.5 · model 10 · +13pp	Final 3-0	MISS
Aug 3	TOR @ HOU	Under 9 · model 8.8 · +13.5pp	Final 1-3	HIT
Aug 4	CHW @ BOS	Under 9 · model 8.2 · +16.8pp	Final 14-2	MISS
Aug 4	MIA @ ATL	Under 9 · model 8.6 · +15.1pp	Final 4-2	HIT
Aug 4	DET @ SEA	Under 8.25 · model 7.2 · +17.2pp	Final 0-8	HIT
Aug 5	LAD @ CHC	Under 9.5 · model 8.7 · +10.9pp	Final 7-6	MISS
Aug 5	DET @ SEA	Under 8 · model 7.5 · +14.4pp	Final 4-2	HIT
Aug 6	LAA @ BAL	Under 9.5 · model 8.9 · +11.8pp	Final 1-4	HIT
Aug 6	CHW @ BOS	Under 9 · model 8.3 · +16.3pp	Final 12-11	MISS
Aug 6	MIA @ ATL	Under 9 · model 8.5 · +14.3pp	Final 11-3	MISS
Aug 8	TOR @ PHI	Under 9.5 · model 8.8 · +12.4pp	Final 5-7	MISS
Aug 8	TB @ SEA	Under 7 · model 7.2 · +11.1pp	Final 2-3	HIT
Aug 9	OAK @ BOS	Under 10.5 · model 9.9 · +12.6pp	Final 3-4	HIT
Aug 9	CHC @ KC	Under 10 · model 9.6 · +13.7pp	Final 2-10	MISS
Aug 9	TB @ SEA	Under 7.5 · model 7 · +12.1pp	Final 1-4	HIT
Aug 10	PHI @ STL	Under 9 · model 8.3 · +15.2pp	Final 5-6	MISS
Aug 10	COL @ ARI	Over 8.5 · model 11 · +11.9pp	Final 9-0	HIT
Aug 10	KC @ LAD	Over 7.5 · model 9.7 · +12.9pp	Final 6-5	HIT
Aug 11	SEA @ NYY	Under 8 · model 7.6 · +13.4pp	Final 4-1	HIT
Aug 11	TEX @ LAA	Under 9 · model 8.4 · +15.7pp	Final 3-2	HIT
Aug 12	TB @ OAK	Over 9.5 · model 12.3 · +15.7pp	Final 4-8	HIT
Aug 12	CHC @ WSH	Over 9.5 · model 11.8 · +11.7pp	Final 6-12	HIT
Aug 12	SEA @ NYY	Under 8.5 · model 8.1 · +11.3pp	Final 10-5	MISS
Aug 12	CIN @ CHW	Under 9 · model 8.7 · +12.3pp	Final 5-0	HIT
Aug 13	CHC @ WSH	Over 8.5 · model 10.9 · +11.6pp	Final 7-0	MISS
Aug 14	COL @ SF	Over 7.5 · model 10.5 · +16.8pp	Final 2-5	MISS
Aug 15	STL @ CHC	Under 9.5 · model 8.5 · +12.4pp	Final 4-8	MISS
Aug 15	COL @ SF	Over 7.5 · model 9.9 · +13.7pp	Final 7-1	HIT
Aug 15	MIA @ CIN	Under 9.5 · model 8.6 · +13.1pp	Final 4-8	MISS
Aug 15	ARI @ ATL	Under 9 · model 8.7 · +13.5pp	Final 3-10	MISS
Aug 15	TEX @ OAK	Over 9.5 · model 12.4 · +16.1pp	Final 3-5	MISS
Aug 29	BOS @ NYY	Under 8 · model 7.7 · +11.9pp	Final 0-6	HIT
Aug 29	MIA @ WSH	Over 7.5 · model 9.7 · +11.5pp	Final 5-4	HIT
Aug 29	BAL @ OAK	Over 9.5 · model 12.9 · +16.4pp	Final 3-5	MISS
Aug 29	ARI @ SF	Over 7.5 · model 9.7 · +12.7pp	Final 7-2	HIT
Aug 30	BOS @ NYY	Under 8 · model 7.7 · +12.1pp	Final 16-1	MISS
Aug 30	HOU @ NYM	Under 9 · model 8.9 · +10.3pp	Final 3-6	PUSH

A moneyline pick requires BOTH legs: published side confidence ≥55% AND ≥5pp edge over the de-vigged market. Totals are not graded yet — over/under prices are not journaled, so there is no honest market basis to grade against. Misses show in red, same weight as hits.

THE OTHER VERTICALS

WNBA

No graded picks yet — the record starts with the first qualifying edge.

UFC

No graded picks yet — the record starts with the first qualifying edge.

NFL

GM verdicts carry falsifiers and review dates — they grade as each review comes due.

NCAAF

Board live with tracked leans — and a $100 Saturday Card allocation starting Week 1, graded in dollars like every sport.