Every team's season, replayed 10,000 times off preseason Elo priors built walk-forward from every result since 1999. What you get: the mean, the honest band around it, and each team's division and playoff odds. What you don't get: a market column — there's no market anchor on this board yet, and we'd rather show the gap than fill it.
Projected win totals beat both naive baselines (prior-year wins and flat .500) out-of-sample. Lower is better — the ruler is how far the projection missed actual win totals, out of sample.
| TEAM | PROJ WINS | P10–P90 BAND | DIVISION | PLAYOFFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01Seattle Seahawks | 12.3 | 10–15 | 71.8% | 96.9% |
| 02Houston Texans | 11.1 | 9–14 | 66.8% | 89.8% |
| 03Denver Broncos | 11.0 | 9–13 | 75.7% | 89.7% |
| 04Los Angeles Rams | 10.7 | 8–13 | 20.5% | 83.8% |
| 05Buffalo Bills | 10.6 | 8–13 | 58.9% | 85.5% |
| 06Philadelphia Eagles | 10.4 | 8–13 | 78.7% | 85.2% |
| 07New England Patriots | 10.3 | 8–13 | 37.9% | 79.5% |
| 08Detroit Lions | 10.3 | 8–13 | 47.4% | 75.8% |
| 09Jacksonville Jaguars | 10.1 | 8–13 | 28.1% | 74.6% |
| 10Baltimore Ravens | 10.0 | 8–13 | 56.9% | 73.9% |
| 11Minnesota Vikings | 9.8 | 7–12 | 30.2% | 64.0% |
| 12San Francisco 49ers | 9.5 | 7–12 | 7.6% | 61.3% |
| 13Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.9 | 6–11 | 23.5% | 47.0% |
| 14Green Bay Packers | 8.9 | 6–11 | 13.2% | 42.8% |
| 15Los Angeles Chargers | 8.6 | 6–11 | 14.0% | 42.9% |
| 16Chicago Bears | 8.6 | 6–11 | 9.2% | 34.4% |
| 17Cincinnati Bengals | 8.5 | 6–11 | 14.9% | 34.5% |
| 18Kansas City Chiefs | 8.3 | 6–11 | 10.1% | 32.2% |
| 19Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8.3 | 6–11 | 43.7% | 47.2% |
| 20Atlanta Falcons | 8.0 | 5–11 | 30.3% | 35.3% |
| 21Indianapolis Colts | 7.8 | 5–10 | 4.8% | 22.3% |
| 22New Orleans Saints | 7.6 | 5–10 | 19.4% | 23.9% |
| 23Washington Commanders | 7.3 | 5–10 | 9.5% | 17.0% |
| 24Dallas Cowboys | 7.2 | 5–10 | 7.9% | 14.3% |
| 25Cleveland Browns | 7.2 | 5–10 | 4.7% | 12.6% |
| 26Miami Dolphins | 7.0 | 5–10 | 2.9% | 11.8% |
| 27New York Giants | 6.5 | 4–9 | 3.9% | 7.2% |
| 28Carolina Panthers | 6.4 | 4–9 | 6.7% | 9.0% |
| 29Arizona Cardinals | 5.5 | 3–8 | 0.1% | 1.8% |
| 30Tennessee Titans | 5.2 | 3–8 | 0.3% | 1.5% |
| 31New York Jets | 5.1 | 3–7 | 0.3% | 1.3% |
| 32Las Vegas Raiders | 4.8 | 3–7 | 0.3% | 0.9% |
PROJ WINS is the mean across the 10,000 simulations; the band is the 10th-to-90th percentile of the same distribution — the range a season lands in four times out of five, not a promise. DIVISION and PLAYOFFS are the share of simulations won. These are priors, not picks: no market anchor yet, and ratings are frozen at their preseason values until in-season re-rating ships.
Preseason Elo built from every result since 1999 (regressed one-third toward league average each offseason), home field estimated from the last ten completed seasons. 10,000 seeded simulations of the regular season with ratings frozen at preseason priors. Validated out-of-sample: every season in the window replayed from priors only and compared to actual win totals.
Projected win totals beat both naive baselines (prior-year wins and flat .500) out-of-sample.
Every season in the window was replayed from priors only and scored against actual win totals. Beating two naive baselines makes the board worth reading; it does not make any single number a bet — there is no market column on this page because we haven't earned one.
The sim also prices every week of every team's season. The survivor primer turns that into the biggest favorite of each week — informational, with the future-value caveat attached.