NFL · SEASON SIM · 2026

The win-total board.

Every team's season, simulated 10,000 times off preseason Elo priors — wins mean, the 10th-to-90th percentile band, division and playoff odds. Market total, de-vigged implied, and the sim-vs-market edge join the moment a market win-total feed exists; edges are labeled leans, never picks.

TEAMS32SIMS10,000VALIDATION2015-2026 · MAE 2.222MARKETMODEL-ONLYUPDATED3d ago

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SCORED ON SEASONS IT NEVER SAW

2.222 MAE vs 2.67 / 2.474

Walk-forward over 2015-2026: the sim's win projections against two baselines — last season's wins (2.67) and a flat 8.5 for everyone (2.474). Lower is better. It beat both.

ALL 32 TEAMS

Projected wins, with the band.

MODEL-ONLYNo market win-total feed exists from either market source probed — one odds aggregator and one box-score provider (checked every cycle since 2026-08-11). The board runs model-only; market total, implied, edge, and lean columns publish the day a feed posts. No reconstructed numbers.

SORT

TEAM	WINS	P10–P90 BAND	DIVISION	PLAYOFFS	MARKET TOTAL	MODEL P(OVER)	EDGE · LEAN	ELO PRIOR
San Francisco 49ers SF	11.9	10–14	37.1%	93.4%	—	—	—	1553.2
Minnesota Vikings MIN	11.9	10–14	64.2%	91.4%	—	—	—	1552.9
Seattle Seahawks SEA	11.6	10–13	48.1%	94.5%	—	—	—	1675.8
Buffalo Bills BUF	11.3	9–13	69.5%	93.7%	—	—	—	1610.1
Jacksonville Jaguars JAX	11.3	9–13	77.3%	91.4%	—	—	—	1566.3
Denver Broncos DEN	11.1	9–13	73.0%	93.6%	—	—	—	1613.8
Baltimore Ravens BAL	10.8	9–13	65.2%	83.9%	—	—	—	1547.4
New England Patriots NE	10.5	8–13	30.3%	83.5%	—	—	—	1595
Los Angeles Rams LA	10.3	8–12	14.8%	77.9%	—	—	—	1610.5
Kansas City Chiefs KC	10.2	8–12	26.1%	69.3%	—	—	—	1500.7
Detroit Lions DET	10.0	8–12	26.3%	66.9%	—	—	—	1558.9
Philadelphia Eagles PHI	9.5	7–12	66.8%	71.2%	—	—	—	1571.2
Cincinnati Bengals CIN	9.3	7–11	15.5%	47.1%	—	—	—	1476.3
Pittsburgh Steelers PIT	9.1	7–11	14.7%	48.9%	—	—	—	1512.5
Green Bay Packers GB	9.1	7–11	5.9%	36.0%	—	—	—	1530.7
Chicago Bears CHI	8.8	7–11	3.6%	25.9%	—	—	—	1527
Houston Texans HOU	8.7	7–11	18.9%	48.7%	—	—	—	1603.3
Cleveland Browns CLE	8.1	6–10	4.6%	18.4%	—	—	—	1411.8
Indianapolis Colts IND	7.8	6–10	3.8%	14.0%	—	—	—	1464.1
New York Giants NYG	7.7	5.5–9.5	16.4%	20.7%	—	—	—	1413.8
Atlanta Falcons ATL	7.7	5–10	41.0%	41.4%	—	—	—	1465.2
Dallas Cowboys DAL	7.1	5–9	8.8%	10.4%	—	—	—	1452.4
Carolina Panthers CAR	6.8	5–9	16.3%	16.8%	—	—	—	1420.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers TB	6.8	5–9	29.2%	29.4%	—	—	—	1479.5
Washington Commanders WAS	6.8	4.5–8.5	8.1%	10.0%	—	—	—	1453.6
New Orleans Saints NO	6.4	4–9	13.5%	13.8%	—	—	—	1430.5
Las Vegas Raiders LV	6.4	5–8	0.4%	2.3%	—	—	—	1342.9
Los Angeles Chargers LAC	6.1	4–8	0.5%	4.2%	—	—	—	1525.4
New York Jets NYJ	5.4	4–7	0.1%	0.6%	—	—	—	1352.7
Arizona Cardinals ARI	5.1	3–7	0.0%	0.2%	—	—	—	1385.6
Miami Dolphins MIA	4.8	3–7	0.1%	0.4%	—	—	—	1452.5
Tennessee Titans TEN	3.7	2–6	0.0%	0.1%	—	—	—	1343.8

METHOD · CONSTANTS · CAVEATS

How the board is built.

METHOD

Preseason Elo built from every result since 1999 (regressed one-third toward league average each offseason), home field estimated from the last ten completed seasons. 10,000 seeded simulations of the regular season with ratings frozen at preseason priors. Validated out-of-sample: every season in the window replayed from priors only and compared to actual win totals.

SIMS 10,000 · SEED 20260907 · ELO START 1500 · K 20
MOV ×ln(1+margin) · REGRESSION one-third toward 1500
HFA +31 (home win% 54.4% over 2017-2026 (non-neutral)) · TIEBREAK simulated standings ties broken by Elo — real NFL tiebreakers not modeled

Win distributions from the season sim (10,000 seeded simulations off preseason Elo priors — see the sim feed for constants and validation). Where a market total exists: model P(over) is the share of simulations finishing above the total (pushes excluded), market implied is the two-way book de-vigged by normalization, edge_pp = model − market in percentage points.

VALIDATION RULER · 2015-2026

Season sim2.222 MAE

Prior-year wins2.67 MAE

Flat 8.5 wins2.474 MAE

Projected win totals beat both naive baselines (prior-year wins and flat .500) out-of-sample.

validated

LEANS, NOT PICKS

OVER/UNDER flags are LEANS, posted at |edge| ≥ 3pp against the de-vigged market — never picks. The NFL sides model failed its gate, and no win-total lean becomes bet language until a graded, market-relative record exists. Sizing, when anything ever clears, is in units (1u = 1% of budget), never dollars.

Priors are a starting point, not a pick.

The sim says where teams start, not where they finish — the in-season re-rating reads real games as they're played. Win-total leans stay leans until a graded, market-relative record exists.

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