Everyone in a survivor pool gets each team once. That makes the weekly question two-sided: how likely is this team to win this week — and how much is it worth to still have them later? This page answers the first half with the season sim's weekly win probabilities, and keeps the second half attached as the caveat it is. Informational, always.
That's the math, not a recommendation: the sim says the Jacksonville Jaguarsare the biggest favorite of Week 1. Whether they're the right survivor entry depends on what they're worth in Weeks 2 through 18 — and on how much of your pool burns the same ticket.
| WEEK | BIGGEST FAVORITES |
|---|---|
| Week 2 | Seattle Seahawks 81.2% · Los Angeles Rams 79.1% · Los Angeles Chargers 77.1% |
| Week 3 | Detroit Lions 79.3% · San Francisco 49ers 75.9% · Seattle Seahawks 74.9% |
| Week 4 | Baltimore Ravens 79.8% · Chicago Bears 76.2% · Seattle Seahawks 74.9% |
| WEEK | BIGGEST FAVORITE | SIM WIN % |
|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 74.0% |
| Week 2 | Seattle Seahawks | 81.2% |
| Week 3 | Detroit Lions | 79.3% |
| Week 4 | Baltimore Ravens | 79.8% |
| Week 5 | New England Patriots | 84.2% |
| Week 6 | New England Patriots | 83.3% |
| Week 7 | Los Angeles Rams | 78.8% |
| Week 8 | Seattle Seahawks | 73.9% |
| Week 9 | Seattle Seahawks | 86.4% |
| Week 10 | Seattle Seahawks | 85.3% |
| Week 11 | Denver Broncos | 85.1% |
| Week 12 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 81.2% |
| Week 13 | Seattle Seahawks | 81.4% |
| Week 14 | Seattle Seahawks | 84.2% |
| Week 15 | Denver Broncos | 80.1% |
| Week 16 | New England Patriots | 76.8% |
| Week 17 | Seattle Seahawks | 78.0% |
| Week 18 | Houston Texans | 84.4% |
Every percentage is the share of the 10,000simulations in which that team won that week's game — priors frozen at preseason values, so these drift from reality as the season actually happens. A week where a team doesn't appear is its bye.
You get each team once. Spending the season's biggest favorite in September means not having them in December, when the pool is thin and the slate is short. The chalk-of-every-week table above is the other half of the decision: a team that tops Week 1 and three later weeks is worth more unspent than a team that tops Week 1 and never appears again.
In a big pool, surviving with the crowd is worth less than surviving alone. When most entries burn the same favorite, an upset eliminates half your competition for free — which can make the second-biggest favorite the better allocation even at a lower win probability. That trade-off is pool math, and it isn't on this page yet.
An informational primer over the season sim — the same walk-forward Elo priors as the win-total board, validated out-of-sample on win totals. It is not pick language, and it is not a graded product. The full allocation table — win probability, future value, and pool-size weighting in one place — ships with the weekly engine.
All 32 teams with the mean, the 10th-to-90th percentile band, and division and playoff odds — simulated end to end off the same preseason Elo priors behind this page.