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Golf · Bermuda Championship

Port Royal Is a Pitch-and-Putt Until the Wind Says Otherwise

Winning scores at Port Royal have ranged from −24 to −12 on the same 6,828 yards. The weekend forecast says wind. Here's where the course gives and where it takes.

OVERVIEW

Butterfield Bermuda Championship · Oct 22–25, 2026 · Port Royal Golf Course, Southampton · Par 71 · 6,828 yds · Purse $6M

On the scorecard, Port Royal looks like a course the PGA TOUR should eat alive. It was the shortest course on the 2025 TOUR schedule: 6,828 yards, par 71, three par 5s, and no par 4 longer than 458 yards.

Then you check the winning scores, and they tell you this isn't a course story. It's a weather story.

Year Winner Score
2025 Adam Schenk −12 (272)
2024 Rafael Campos −19 (265)
2023 Camilo Villegas −24 (260)
2022 Seamus Power −19 (265)
2021 Lucas Herbert −15 (269)
2020 Brian Gay −15 (269)
2019 Brendon Todd −24 (260)

That's a 12-shot swing between the lowest and highest winning scores on the same 6,828 yards. Same Robert Trent Jones layout, same Bermudagrass greens. What changes is how hard the Atlantic is blowing.

Last November it blew hard. Final-round winds were sustained at 25–35 mph with gusts to 45, and the TOUR moved tee times up to avoid the worst of it. Schenk closed with an even-par 71, making one birdie and four par saves, and won by a shot in his 243rd TOUR start. Even par won the day. That's Port Royal when it bites.

Port Royal Golf Course

6,828 yards · par 71 · Southampton Parish

Tee times are not published, so there is no wind chart by tee time.

  • Sony Open in HawaiiWaialae Country Club · 7,044 yards · par 70
  • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmPebble Beach Golf Links · 6,972 yards · par 72
  • The RSM ClassicSea Island Golf Club (Seaside Course) · 7,005 yards · par 70
  • Sony Open in HawaiiWaialae Country Club · 7,044 yards · par 70
  • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AmPebble Beach Golf Links · 6,989 yards · par 72

THE THESIS: THERE ARE TWO PORT ROYALS

Calm Port Royal is a wedge-and-putter shootout. Short par 4s, gettable par 5s, and winners as low as −24.

Windy Port Royal is a survival test. The wind is the defense, and the closing stretch from 13 to 18 decides the week.

Matchups

Ben James 54.9%Séamus Power 40.5% · tie 4.6%
Zac Blair 49.4%Ben Kohles 46.0% · tie 4.6%

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST

As of Tuesday, Oct 20, the major weather models (ECMWF, GFS and ICON, via Open-Meteo) all have the wind building into the weekend:

Round Day Daily peak sustained wind Daily peak gusts
R1 Thu, Oct 22 12–23 mph (models disagree) 16–24 mph
R2 Fri, Oct 23 17–25 mph 24–28 mph
R3 Sat, Oct 24 26–29 mph 28–41 mph
R4 Sun, Oct 25 29–39 mph 41–55 mph

These are model forecasts two to five days out, and they will move. If they hold, the weekend looks closer to last year's final round than to a −24 shootout.

Outright and top 20

Model probabilities. In 85-event testing they did not beat the betting market, so treat them as research.

PlayerWinMarketTop 20MarketBest price
Ben James6.0%5.7%49.5%48.8%+1240 Pinnacle
Séamus Power3.2%2.2%39.4%33.5%+4750 Betcris
Zac Blair3.0%1.7%39.0%30.3%+4739 Pinnacle
Ben Kohles2.9%2.1%37.1%33.5%+4000 Betonline
Kevin Roy2.7%2.4%33.7%33.6%+3450 Betcris
Andrew Novak2.1%2.5%30.3%35.0%+3050 Betcris
Max McGreevy2.1%1.6%32.2%28.0%+5481 Pinnacle
Davis Thompson1.9%1.8%29.5%29.6%+4000 Betmgm

WHERE IT'S WON: THE SCORING HOLES

The 2025 hole data is useful here because it was a hard week. Any hole that still gave up birdies in that wind is a hole you have to cash in on. (Figures below are from our hole-by-hole data for the full 2025 field, all four rounds.)

  • No. 7 (par 5, 517 yds). The second-easiest hole on the course last year: about a 36% birdie-or-better rate and a 4.82 scoring average.
  • No. 17 (par 5, 507 yds). The easiest hole on the course (4.51 average, 57% birdie or better). It's also the last real birdie chance before 18, which makes it a pressure hole on Sunday. Schenk's 6-foot birdie try spun out here in the final round.
  • No. 2 (par 5, 553 yds). The longest hole on the course still averaged under par (4.93).
  • Nos. 5, 10 and 11. These par 4s all played under par. No. 11 is 443 yards and still averaged 3.83.

Put it together: the par 5s and the shorter par 4s are where you make your score. The field will birdie them. Contenders have to birdie them and then not give the shots back.

WHERE IT'S LOST: THE CLOSING STRETCH

No. 15 (par 4, 412 yds), the hardest hole of 2025. It averaged 4.45, nearly half a shot over par, with about 40% of the field making bogey or worse. It isn't long. It played hardest anyway. On Sunday the leader dropped a shot here when a 6-footer for par didn't fall.

No. 16 (par 3, 235 yds), the signature hole. The green sits right up against the ocean. In 2025 about 32% of the field made bogey or worse there, with just 8.6% birdies and a 3.30 average, second-hardest overall. Even the winner hit onto the side of a hill and had to chip to 3 feet to save par.

No. 18 (par 4, 410 yds). About 27% bogey or worse. Schenk's winning par came after his approach went just over the green and he putted through the fringe off a tight lie.

Don't overlook the other long par 3s, either. No. 8 (213 yds) and No. 13 (235 yds) ranked fourth and third in difficulty, with 27–29% of the field making bogey or worse and birdie rates of 5–8%.

Add it up. Port Royal's long par 3s are a tax. Three of the four par 3s sit among the four hardest holes, and they play 213–235 yards to wind-exposed targets. Lose a shot to the field on each of them and you've given back the par-5 birdies.

WHAT THE COURSE REWARDS

  1. Long-iron and hybrid approach. Three of the four par 3s play 213–235 yards, so proximity from 200+ yards matters here.
  2. Flight control in wind. Lower, flatter trajectories hold up better when it blows.
  3. Scrambling. In wind, everyone misses greens. Schenk's final round was four par saves and one birdie.
  4. Wedge scoring when it's calm. If the wind lays down, the birdie-makers inside 150 yards take over.
  5. Short putts in wind. Schenk holed nervy 6- to 8-footers on 12 and 14 on Sunday to stay in front.

THE FIELD

The field is 120 players. Adam Schenk defends, and five past champions are back: Brendon Todd (2019), Seamus Power (2022), Camilo Villegas (2023), Rafael Campos (2024) and Schenk (2025). Ben James, No. 1 in the 2026 PGA TOUR University ranking, arrives with three top-five finishes in his last three starts. Austin Lemieux, son of Mario Lemieux, makes his TOUR debut after a 66 in the open qualifier.

One more note for Thursday: all seven past champions were three or more shots back after the first round.

THE ARCLINE READ

Port Royal isn't a bomber's course, and it isn't just a putting contest either. It's a par-3-and-wind course that hands everyone birdies on the par 5s, so the week is decided by who loses the fewest shots on 8, 13, 15, 16 and 18.

If the forecast holds and the weekend blows, expect a winning score closer to 2025 than to 2023, and favor ball-strikers who can scramble. If it calms down, expect a shootout and favor the birdie-makers.

This story reflects the information and prices available at the publication time shown above.

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