RECAP · GOLF · 2026-07-25

3M Open — Round 3

Jackson Koivun leads at -20 through 3. Where our pre-event reads stand — original lines, live prices, and a clear status on every one. Nothing's graded until Sunday.

Arcline Analytics

00 · THE READ

// 3M OPEN · THROUGH ROUND 3

8 tracked, 3 clearly live, 2 in range, 2 fading, 1 done.

Jackson Koivun sits on top at -20. The board below is the honest state of every read we made before the week — what we got, where they are, and what the bet implies now. None of it is graded; a tournament bet isn't decided until the trophy is.

01 · THE ROUND

// THE THIRD ROUND

Round performance, separate from the bet — who moved and what moved them.

> STRONGJackson Koivun (1, -20) — went low for a 61 in the third round. Approach carried it (approach +3.75).

> STRONGMichael Brennan (T4, -16) — went low for a 63 in the third round. Approach carried it (approach +2.03).

> STRONGDavis Thompson (T9, -14) — went low for a 63 in the third round. The putter carried it (putting +1.87).

> SOFTMaverick McNealy (T59, -4) — left it out there with a 72 in the third round. Off the tee let him down (off-the-tee -2.77).

> SOFTKeith Mitchell (T28, -9) — left it out there with a 67 in the third round. The putter let him down (putting -3.19).

02 · THE CUT

THE CUT7 of the 8 names we tracked pre-event are through to the weekend. The casualties are logged in the board below.

03 · STATUS BOARD

// EVERY READ · ORIGINAL LINE → STATUS

Pre-event fair price, current position, live implied price, status. Live finish probabilities update through the weekend.

Player	Pre-event (fair)	Now	Implied now	Status
Scottie Scheffler	outright +361 · T10 -314	T9 (-14)	win 6.0% · T10 80%	LIVE
Kurt Kitayama	outright +2930 · T10 +270	T21 (-10)	win 0.0% · T10 13%	IN RANGE
Maverick McNealy	outright +3256 · T10 +255	T59 (-4)	win 0.0% · T10 0%	FADING
Hideki Matsuyama	outright +3731 · T10 +280	T13 (-13)	win 0.8% · T10 50%	LIVE
Sungjae Im	outright +4551 · T10 +432	CUT (-1)	win 0.0% · T10 0%	DEAD
Tom Kim	outright +4639 · T10 +358	T28 (-9)	win 0.0% · T10 6%	IN RANGE
Jackson Koivun	outright +4754 · T10 +359	1 (-20)	win 55.0% · T10 98%	LIVE
Jake Knapp	outright +5191 · T10 +426	T45 (-7)	win 0.0% · T10 1%	FADING

> LIVEScottie Scheffler — pre-event outright +361 (21.7%), T20 -714 (88%). Through 3 rounds: T9, -14. The short game carried it (around-the-green +2.3). The case is intact — within reach with the in-play model now at 6.0% to win, against a pre-event fair price of +361.

> FADINGMaverick McNealy — pre-event outright +3256 (3.0%), T20 +123 (45%). Through 3 rounds: T59, -4. Off the tee let him down (off-the-tee -2.77). Mathematically alive, practically a long way back — the path needs several spots over the weekend with the board this tight.

> DEADSungjae Im — pre-event outright +4551 (2.1%), T20 +212 (32%). Through 3 rounds: CUT, -1. Done for the week — the outright and the weekend placements are off the board.

04 · ROUND 4 LOOKAHEAD

// ROUND 4 · WHERE THE VALUE SITS

Not graded lines — the names where the in-play model and the leaderboard disagree most, the spots worth a weekend position.

Emiliano Grillo (T2) — the in-play model now rates him higher than the board does, top-ten 87%
Jackson Koivun (1) — the in-play model now rates him higher than the board does, top-ten 98%
Ben Kohles (T2) — the in-play model now rates him higher than the board does, top-ten 89%
Chandler Phillips (T4) — the in-play model now rates him higher than the board does, top-ten 70%

99 · THE CLOSE

The weekend case is intact.

Every line above gets its final grade on Sunday, win or lose, in the same font. Until then it's a status, not a scorecard.

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