Spread vs book
UnmodeledBook DAL −4.5Final
DAL at PHI
DAL38
atPHI21
Pre-tip projection DAL 23.8, PHI 21.4.
Total vs book
Total: model 0.7 over bookBook 44.5 · Model 45.2Plays
61DAL 64 · PHI 61DAL
Dak Prescott
PHI
Tanner McKee
Model gap — unmodeled news, not a play
TotalBook O/U 44.5 -110Model 45.2Total: model 0.7 over book
100 draws from a normal distribution around the model margin, SD 13.5. PHI margin −2.4. Book −4.5.
Final DAL. Model side was DAL. No call is saved.
No sportsbook prop line is posted, so the player range has no line marker.
23.8–21.4. DAL 23.8, PHI 21.4: a 2.4-point DAL margin and a 45.2 total.
DAL 64 plays at a 58% pass rate. PHI 61 plays at a 56% pass rate.
DAL win probability is 57%. DraftKings line as of Oct 20, 10:19 PM ET (PHI +4.5, total 44.5), the spread model vs book difference is PHI +2.1 and the total model vs book difference is Over +0.7.
QB adjustment: PHI subtracts 5.87 from the Week 1 starter baseline (Jalen Hurts, start probability 0%; projected Tanner McKee 100%).
Model gap — unmodeled news, not a play Not in the point model: Lane Johnson (PHI OT, Out); Landon Dickerson (PHI G, Injured Reserve).
DAL
Dak Prescott QB11.911.9
CeeDee Lamb WR12.512.5
Javonte Williams RB17.017.0
Sam Howell QB0.60.6
Tyler Goodson RB2.32.3
George Pickens WR11.511.5
Jake Ferguson TE3.83.8
Ryan Flournoy WR7.27.2
Brevyn Spann-Ford TE2.42.4Full table
iThe American price that matches our probability, before a book adds juice. | iThe low and high marks. About 80% of the simulations land between them. | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javonte Williams RB | 19.0 | 79 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 11 | 71% | -247 | 17.0 | ||||
| CeeDee Lamb WR | 0.3 | 1 | 10.1 | 6.3 | 68 | 26% | +285 | 12.5 | ||||
| Dak Prescott QB | 33.9 | 218 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 2.3 | 8 | 7% | +1307 | 11.9 | |||
| George Pickens WR | 0.0 | 0 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 68 | 30% | +236 | 11.5 | ||||
| Ryan Flournoy WR | 0.0 | 0 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 38 | 24% | +314 | 7.2 | ||||
| Jake Ferguson TE | 0.0 | 0 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 18 | 16% | +513 | 3.8 | ||||
| Brevyn Spann-Ford TE | 0.0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 14 | 9% | +1070 | 2.4 | ||||
| Tyler Goodson RB | 3.5 | 12 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 6 | 14% | +630 | 2.3 | ||||
| Sam Howell QB | 1.8 | 12 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1 | 1% | +9894 | 0.6 |
PHI
Dallas Goedert TE8.28.2
Saquon Barkley RB4.14.1
DeVonta Smith WR8.48.4
Dameon Pierce RB11.211.2
Dontayvion Wicks WR6.46.4
Tanner McKee QB10.910.9
Darius Cooper WR3.83.8
Makai Lemon WR6.16.1
Cole Payton QB0.60.6Full table
iThe American price that matches our probability, before a book adds juice. | iThe low and high marks. About 80% of the simulations land between them. | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce RB | 15.8 | 48 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 15 | 52% | -106 | 11.2 | ||||
| Tanner McKee QB | 30.2 | 181 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 9 | 7% | +1239 | 10.9 | |||
| DeVonta Smith WR | 0.0 | 0 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 48 | 26% | +280 | 8.4 | ||||
| Dallas Goedert TE | 0.0 | 0 | 5.3 | 3.8 | 39 | 30% | +237 | 8.2 | ||||
| Dontayvion Wicks WR | 0.0 | 0 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 37 | 17% | +493 | 6.4 | ||||
| Makai Lemon WR | 0.0 | 0 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 33 | 16% | +509 | 6.1 | ||||
| Saquon BarkleyQ RB | 7.0 | 32 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 5 | 21% | +365 | 4.1 | ||||
| Darius Cooper WR | 0.0 | 0 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 25 | 20% | +402 | 3.8 | ||||
| Cole Payton QB | 1.6 | 12 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 2 | 1% | +7809 | 0.6 |
Injury report
Injury report updated Oct 20, 10:19 PM ET.
- PHI Lane Johnson OT · Out · Personal
- PHI Eli Stowers TE · Injured Reserve · Quadriceps (Not Specified)
- PHI Grant Calcaterra TE · Injured Reserve · Back (Not Specified)
- PHI Jakorian Bennett CB · Injured Reserve · Knee (Not Specified)
- PHI Jalen Hurts QB · Injured Reserve · Calf (Not Specified)
- PHI Landon Dickerson G · Injured Reserve · Knee (Not Specified)
- DAL Dee Winters LB · Doubtful · Achilles (Strain)
- DAL Cobie Durant CB · Questionable · Hamstring (Strain)
- DAL DeMarvion Overshown LB · Questionable · Hamstring (Strain)
- DAL Drew Shelton OT · Questionable · Hamstring (Not Specified)
- DAL KaVontae Turpin WR · Questionable · Ribs (Not Specified)
- PHI AJ Epenesa DE · Questionable · Back (Not Specified)
- PHI Jalyx Hunt LB · Questionable · Ankle (Not Specified)
- PHI Michael Carter II CB · Questionable · Abdomen (Not Specified)
- PHI Nolan Smith Jr. LB · Questionable · Concussion (Concussion)
- PHI Saquon Barkley RB · Questionable · Hamstring (Not Specified)