MLB · MODEL vs MARKET · 2026-07-16

Journaled pre-pitch.

Every game on the slate: the model's number, the de-vig market consensus, and the blend the journal actually grades. Written before first pitch, never edited after.

GAME	FIRST PITCH	MODEL	MARKET	BLEND	FAIR (AWAY / HOME)	BOOKS	EDGE	JOURNALED
NYM @ PHI	7:00 PM ET	62.5%	54.3%	57.1%	+133 / -133	6	PHI +2.9pp	12:09 AM ET

Probabilities are the home side's; FAIR is the no-vig American price the blend implies — if the book is paying more than FAIR on the side we like, that's the trade. Validation: 149 of 30 games graded — the model earns its public record at 30, not before.

THE MATCHUPS · NAMED STARTERS · MODEL TEAM TOTALS

NYM @ PHI7:00 PM ET · Citizens Bank Park

NYM42.9% · λ 4.69

Christian Scott RHP

5 IP · 5.0 K · 2.50 ER exp

2 Juan Soto▲12.3

4 Francisco Lindor▲10.4

1 A.J. Ewing▲9.5

PHI57.1% · λ 5.83

Aaron Nola RHP

5 IP · 4.7 K · 2.03 ER exp

2 Kyle Schwarber▲13.6

3 Bryce Harper▲12.0

4 Brandon Marsh▲11.6

1 Trea Turner▼10.4

MODEL TOTAL 10.6 vs 9.5EDGE PHI +2.9ppHR AIR 1.35x10 MPH OUT TO CF

Starter lines are the model's expected innings, strikeouts, and earned runs against this lineup. λ is each side's expected runs from the same simulation — the model's team total. ▲/▼ marks the platoon read against the named starter.

EDGE BASIS · PUBLISHED BLEND VS DE-VIG MARKET MEDIAN; MATERIAL AT 5PP (PRE-REGISTERED) · JOURNALED TIMES ARE WRITE-ONCE