MLB · MODEL vs MARKET · 2026-08-31
Journaled pre-pitch.
Every game on the slate: the model's number, the de-vig market consensus, and the blend the journal actually grades. Written before first pitch, never edited after.
Probabilities are the home side's; FAIR is the no-vig American price the blend implies — if the book is paying more than FAIR on the side we like, that's the trade. Validation: 570 of 30 games graded — the model earns its public record at 30, not before.
THE MATCHUPS · NAMED STARTERS · MODEL TEAM TOTALS
SF @ ATL6:05 PM ET · Truist Park
SF39.3% · λ 3.62
Anthony Molina RHP
5 IP · 4.5 K · 2.48 ER exp
1 Rafael Devers▲7.4
3 Bryce Eldridge▲6.8
2 Jung Hoo Lee▲6.5
ATL60.7% · λ 4.66
Bryce Elder RHP
6 IP · 4.8 K · 2.13 ER exp
2 Matt Olson▲8.4
3 Ronald Acuna Jr.▼8.3
1 Drake Baldwin▲8.1
5 Michael Harris II▲7.4
MODEL TOTAL 8.7 vs 8.3EDGE ATL +1.6ppHR AIR 1.08x7 MPH CROSSING TO RF
SD @ CIN6:40 PM ET · Great American Ball Park
SD56.4% · λ 4.80
Michael King RHP
6 IP · 6.3 K · 2.54 ER exp
2 Fernando Tatis Jr.▼8.3
1 Manny Machado▼7.6
5 Jackson Merrill▲7.6
4 Jake Cronenworth▲7.3
CIN43.6% · λ 4.05
Brady Singer RHP
6 IP · 4.5 K · 2.74 ER exp
1 Elly De La Cruz▲8.2
2 Sal Stewart▼7.5
3 JJ Bleday▲7.3
MODEL TOTAL 10.3 vs 9.0EDGE CIN +0.9ppHR AIR 1.38x7 MPH OUT TO CF
NYM @ TB6:40 PM ET · Tropicana Field
NYM39.6% · λ 3.83
Robert Stock RHP
5 IP · 3.9 K · 2.17 ER exp
1 Francisco Lindor▲7.7
3 Bo Bichette▲6.9
TB60.4% · λ 4.68
Ian Seymour LHP
5 IP · 5.5 K · 1.99 ER exp
3 Junior Caminero▼8.3
2 Jonathan Aranda▲8.2
1 Yandy Diaz▼8.0
4 Chandler Simpson▲7.4
MODEL TOTAL 8.5 vs 8.0EDGE TB +0.0ppHR AIR 1.00xROOF/DOME — NO WIND
SEA @ BOS6:45 PM ET · Fenway Park
SEA38.4% · λ 3.32
George Kirby RHP
6 IP · 5.6 K · 2.92 ER exp
6 Cal Raleigh▲7.1
2 Julio Rodriguez▲7.1
1 Randy Arozarena▲7.0
BOS61.6% · λ 5.03
Payton Tolle LHP
6 IP · 6.4 K · 1.95 ER exp
3 Wilyer Abreu▲8.0
1 Nick Sogard▲7.1
4 Caleb Durbin▼7.0
2 Ceddanne Rafaela▼6.9
MODEL TOTAL 8.1 vs 8.0EDGE BOS +1.6ppHR AIR 0.87x9 MPH IN FROM CF
MIA @ WSH6:45 PM ET · Nationals Park
MIA51.7% · λ 4.66
Ryan Gusto RHP
5 IP · 4.0 K · 2.23 ER exp
3 Heriberto Hernandez▲8.0
1 Otto Lopez▲7.7
2 Xavier Edwards▲7.6
4 Jakob Marsee▼7.1
WSH48.3% · λ 4.81
Will Dion LHP
5 IP · 4.6 K · 2.50 ER exp
3 CJ Abrams▲8.4
1 Daylen Lile▲7.9
4 Abimelec Ortiz▲7.6
5 Nasim Nunez▲7.2
MODEL TOTAL 10.1 vs 8.5EDGE WSH +0.9ppHR AIR 1.05x5 MPH IN FROM CF
MIL @ CHC7:40 PM ET · Wrigley Field
MIL49.6% · λ 4.65
Kyle Harrison LHP
5 IP · 5.6 K · 2.42 ER exp
4 Jake Bauers▲8.2
3 Brice Turang▲8.0
1 Jackson Chourio▼7.7
6 Christian Yelich▲7.3
CHC50.4% · λ 4.67
Clay Holmes RHP
6 IP · 4.4 K · 2.76 ER exp
1 Pete Crow-Armstrong▼8.3
3 Seiya Suzuki▲8.3
2 Alex Bregman▲7.7
4 Michael Busch▼7.3
MODEL TOTAL 10.1 vs 9.5EDGE MIL +0.6ppHR AIR 1.35x8 MPH OUT TO CF
DET @ MIN7:40 PM ET · Target Field
DET47.5% · λ 4.81
Jackson Jobe RHP
5 IP · 3.9 K · 1.97 ER exp
1 Kevin McGonigle▲8.1
3 Dillon Dingler▼7.3
2 Gleyber Torres▼7.2
5 Spencer Torkelson▼7.2
MIN52.5% · λ 4.03
Taj Bradley RHP
5 IP · 5.7 K · 2.68 ER exp
1 Luke Keaschall▼7.3
2 Josh Bell▲7.2
5 Kody Clemens▲7.2
4 Brooks Lee▲7.1
MODEL TOTAL 10.0 vs 8.5EDGE DET +2.9ppHR AIR 1.26x5 MPH OUT TO CF
OAK @ TEX8:05 PM ET · Globe Life Field
OAK35.2%
Gage Jump LHP
5 IP · 5.5 K · 3.06 ER exp
TEX64.8% · λ 5.44
Jacob deGrom RHP
5 IP · 10.5 K · 2.16 ER exp
1 Wyatt Langford▲8.8
4 Corey Seager▼8.0
5 Jake Burger▲7.5
3 Ezequiel Duran▲7.5
MODEL TOTAL 8.9 vs 7.5EDGE OAK +1.6ppHR AIR 1.00xROOF/DOME — NO WIND
CHW @ HOU8:10 PM ET · Daikin Park
CHW46.5% · λ 4.85
Anthony Kay LHP
5 IP · 4.3 K · 2.47 ER exp
1 Munetaka Murakami▲8.8
5 Colson Montgomery▲8.2
4 Sam Antonacci▲8.2
2 Miguel Vargas▼7.9
HOU53.5% · λ 4.67
Peter Lambert RHP
5 IP · 5.0 K · 2.59 ER exp
4 Jeremy Pena▲8.4
1 Yordan Alvarez▼8.4
2 Isaac Paredes▲8.0
MODEL TOTAL 10.5 vs 8.5EDGE CHW +1.3ppHR AIR 1.25x4 MPH OUT TO CF
BAL @ COL8:40 PM ET · Coors Field
BAL57.1% · λ 5.73
Kyle Bradish RHP
6 IP · 6.6 K · 2.85 ER exp
3 Gunnar Henderson▲9.2
1 Pete Alonso▼9.0
2 Jackson Holliday▲8.1
4 Leody Taveras▲7.8
COL42.9% · λ 4.86
Tanner Gordon RHP
5 IP · 4.6 K · 3.09 ER exp
2 TJ Rumfield7.9
5 Mickey Moniak7.8
1 Jake McCarthy7.6
3 Cole Carrigg7.5
MODEL TOTAL 12.6 vs 11.0EDGE BAL +0.9ppHR AIR 1.10x9 MPH CROSSING TO LF
NYY @ LAA9:38 PM ET · Angel Stadium
NYY58.5% · λ 4.46
Elmer Rodriguez RHP
5 IP · 4.9 K · 1.73 ER exp
2 Ben Rice▲8.4
6 Jazz Chisholm Jr.▲8.1
1 Trent Grisham▲8.1
3 Luis Garcia Jr.▲7.6
LAA41.5% · λ 3.43
Walbert Urena RHP
5 IP · 4.8 K · 2.17 ER exp
2 Zach Neto▼6.9
1 Mike Trout▼6.8
MODEL TOTAL 8.5 vs 8.5EDGE NYY +2.2ppHR AIR 1.27x8 MPH OUT TO CF
PHI @ ARI9:40 PM ET · Chase Field
PHI52.6% · λ 4.66
Aaron Nola RHP
5 IP · 5.2 K · 2.53 ER exp
1 Kyle Schwarber9.2
2 Bryce Harper8.6
3 Trea Turner7.8
4 Bryson Stott7.5
ARI47.4% · λ 4.50
Eduardo Rodriguez LHP
6 IP · 5.3 K · 3.02 ER exp
1 Corbin Carroll▲9.2
2 Geraldo Perdomo▲8.2
4 Gabriel Moreno▼7.4
3 Tim Tawa▼7.0
MODEL TOTAL 9.6 vs 8.5EDGE ARI +0.6ppHR AIR 1.03x5 MPH IN FROM CF
Starter lines are the model's expected innings, strikeouts, and earned runs against this lineup. λ is each side's expected runs from the run-expectancy model — the model's team total. ▲/▼ marks the platoon read against the named starter.
EDGE BASIS · PUBLISHED BLEND VS DE-VIG MARKET MEDIAN; MATERIAL AT >=55% PUBLISHED SIDE CONFIDENCE AND >=5PP EDGE (PRE-REGISTERED, BOTH LEGS REQUIRED) · JOURNALED TIMES ARE WRITE-ONCE