Journaled pre-pitch.
Every game on the slate: the model's number, the de-vig market consensus, and the blend the journal actually grades. Written before first pitch, never edited after.
Probabilities are the home side's; FAIR is the no-vig American price the blend implies — if the book is paying more than FAIR on the side we like, that's the trade. Validation: 939 of 30 games graded — the model earns its public record at 30, not before.
Starter lines are the model's expected innings, strikeouts, and earned runs against this lineup. λ is each side's expected runs from the run-expectancy model — the model's team total. ▲/▼ marks the platoon read against the named starter.
EDGE BASIS · PUBLISHED BLEND VS DE-VIG MARKET MEDIAN; MATERIAL AT >=55% PUBLISHED SIDE CONFIDENCE AND >=5PP EDGE (PRE-REGISTERED, BOTH LEGS REQUIRED) · JOURNALED TIMES ARE WRITE-ONCE