RECAPGOLF · Aug 1, 2026 · 3 MIN · Arcline Analytics

Rocket Classic — Round 3

Davis Riley leads at -15 through 3. Where our pre-event reads stand — original lines, live prices, and a clear status on every one. Nothing's graded until Sunday.

00 · THE READ

// ROCKET CLASSIC · THROUGH ROUND 3

8 tracked, 5 clearly live, 0 in range, 0 fading, 3 done.

Davis Riley sits on top at -15. The board below is the honest state of every read we made before the week — what we got, where they are, and what the bet implies now. None of it is graded; a tournament bet isn't decided until the trophy is.

01 · THE ROUND

// THE THIRD ROUND

Round performance, separate from the bet — who moved and what moved them.

> STRONGRasmus Hojgaard (T3, -12) — went low for a 61 in the third round. The putter carried it (putting +3.8).

> STRONGDavis Riley (1, -15) — went low for a 63 in the third round. The putter carried it (putting +3.35).

> STRONGMichael Brennan (2, -14) — went low for a 64 in the third round. The putter carried it (putting +2.59).

> SOFTJ.J. Spaun (T48, -6) — left it out there with a 70 in the third round. The putter let him down (putting -2.39).

> SOFTPatrick Cantlay (T11, -10) — left it out there with a 70 in the third round. The putter let him down (putting -2.46).

02 · THE CUT

THE CUT5 of the 8 names we tracked pre-event are through to the weekend. The casualties are logged in the board below.

03 · STATUS BOARD

// EVERY READ · ORIGINAL LINE → STATUS

Pre-event fair price, current position, live implied price, status. Live finish probabilities update through the weekend.

Player	Pre-event (fair)	Now	Implied now	Status
Cameron Young	outright +1371 · T10 +165	T3 (-12)	win 14.4% · T10 78%	LIVE
Xander Schauffele	outright +2157 · T10 +191	T7 (-11)	win 6.0% · T10 64%	LIVE
Chris Gotterup	outright +2375 · T10 +242	CUT (+1)	win 0.0% · T10 0%	DEAD
Si Woo Kim	outright +2799 · T10 +233	T11 (-10)	win 2.2% · T10 46%	LIVE
Michael Thorbjornsen	outright +3211 · T10 +402	T7 (-11)	win 4.5% · T10 58%	LIVE
Wyndham Clark	outright +3290 · T10 +310	CUT (+5)	win 0.0% · T10 0%	DEAD
Jake Knapp	outright +3434 · T10 +353	CUT (-2)	win 0.0% · T10 0%	DEAD
Patrick Cantlay	outright +3884 · T10 +271	T11 (-10)	win 1.9% · T10 44%	LIVE

> LIVECameron Young — pre-event outright +1371 (6.8%), T20 -119 (54%). Through 3 rounds: T3, -12. Approach carried it (approach +1.08). The case is intact — right in it with the in-play model now at 14.4% to win, against a pre-event fair price of +1371.

> DEADChris Gotterup — pre-event outright +2375 (4.0%), T20 +121 (45%). Through 3 rounds: CUT, +1. Done for the week — the outright and the weekend placements are off the board.

> DEADWyndham Clark — pre-event outright +3290 (2.9%), T20 +153 (40%). Through 3 rounds: CUT, +5. Done for the week — the outright and the weekend placements are off the board.

04 · ROUND 4 LOOKAHEAD

// ROUND 4 · WHERE THE VALUE SITS

Not graded lines — the names where the in-play model and the leaderboard disagree most, the spots worth a weekend position.

Davis Riley (1) — the in-play model now rates him higher than the board does, top-ten 82%
Michael Brennan (2) — the in-play model now rates him higher than the board does, top-ten 84%
Chris Kirk (T3) — the in-play model now rates him higher than the board does, top-ten 65%
Rasmus Hojgaard (T3) — the in-play model now rates him higher than the board does, top-ten 58%

99 · THE CLOSE

The weekend case is intact.

Every line above gets its final grade on Sunday, win or lose, in the same font. Until then it's a status, not a scorecard.

Written by Arcline AnalyticsSee today's card →