RECAP · GOLF · 2026-06-13

RBC Canadian Open — Round 2

Ben James leads at -10 through 2. Where our pre-event reads stand — original lines, live prices, and a clear status on every one. Nothing's graded until Sunday.

Arcline Analytics

00 · THE READ

// RBC CANADIAN OPEN · THROUGH ROUND 2

8 tracked, 2 clearly live, 2 in range, 3 fading, 1 done.

Ben James sits on top at -10. The board below is the honest state of every read we made before the week — what we got, where they are, and what the bet implies now. None of it is graded; a tournament bet isn't decided until the trophy is.

01 · THE ROUND

// THE SECOND ROUND

Round performance, separate from the bet — who moved and what moved them.

> STRONGBud Cauley (T7, -8) — went low for a 63 in the second round. Approach carried it (approach +2.54).

> STRONGBen James (1, -10) — went low for a 63 in the second round. The putter carried it (putting +2.43).

> STRONGKeith Mitchell (T2, -9) — went low for a 64 in the second round. Approach carried it (approach +3.97).

> SOFTAlex Noren (T135, +5) — left it out there with a 75 in the second round. Approach let him down (approach -3.29).

> SOFTNicolai Hojgaard (T112, +2) — left it out there with a 73 in the second round. Approach let him down (approach -2.68).

02 · THE CUT

THE CUT7 of the 8 names we tracked pre-event are through to the weekend. The casualties are logged in the board below.

03 · STATUS BOARD

// EVERY READ · ORIGINAL LINE → STATUS

Pre-event fair price, current position, live implied price, status. Live finish probabilities update through the weekend.

Player	Pre-event (fair)	Now	Implied now	Status
Tommy Fleetwood	outright +1686 · T10 +142	T7 (-8)	win 11.5% · T10 65%	LIVE
Matt Fitzpatrick	outright +2074 · T10 +178	T28 (-5)	win 2.0% · T10 31%	IN RANGE
Sam Burns	outright +2253 · T10 +213	T2 (-9)	win 14.0% · T10 68%	LIVE
Kristoffer Reitan	outright +2445 · T10 +278	T61 (-2)	win 0.1% · T10 7%	FADING
Justin Rose	outright +2859 · T10 +306	T112 (+2)	win 0.0% · T10 0%	DEAD
Collin Morikawa	outright +3115 · T10 +260	T28 (-5)	win 1.1% · T10 23%	IN RANGE
Wyndham Clark	outright +3147 · T10 +285	T38 (-4)	win 0.5% · T10 15%	FADING
Michael Thorbjornsen	outright +3631 · T10 +431	T46 (-3)	win 0.2% · T10 7%	FADING

> LIVETommy Fleetwood — pre-event outright +1686 (5.6%), T20 -154 (61%). Through 2 rounds: T7, -8. Approach carried it (approach +2.82). The case is intact — within reach with the in-play model now at 11.5% to win, against a pre-event fair price of +1686.

> FADINGKristoffer Reitan — pre-event outright +2445 (3.9%), T20 +147 (41%). Through 2 rounds: T61, -2. Approach let him down (approach -0.89). Mathematically alive, practically a long way back — the path needs several spots over the weekend with the board this tight.

> DEADJustin Rose — pre-event outright +2859 (3.4%), T20 +160 (38%). Through 2 rounds: T112, +2. The short game let him down (around-the-green -1.33). Done for the week — the outright and the weekend placements are off the board.

04 · ROUND 3 LOOKAHEAD

// ROUND 3 · WHERE THE VALUE SITS

Not graded lines — the names where the in-play model and the leaderboard disagree most, the spots worth a weekend position.

Ben James (1) — the in-play model now rates him higher than the board does, top-ten 61%
Haotong Li (T2) — the in-play model now rates him higher than the board does, top-ten 48%
Keith Mitchell (T2) — the in-play model now rates him higher than the board does, top-ten 54%
Sam Burns (T2) — the in-play model now rates him higher than the board does, top-ten 68%

99 · THE CLOSE

The weekend case is intact.

Every line above gets its final grade on Sunday, win or lose, in the same font. Until then it's a status, not a scorecard.

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