PICKS FRAMEWORK · GOLF · 2026-05-13

2026 PGA Championship — ARCLINE DFS & Betting Guide

The Arcline golf model's cash targets, GPP leverage plays, and $150 betting card for the 108th PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club. Mid-iron elite, bentgrass putters, and the case for Cameron Young at +1500.

Arcline Analytics

00 · OVERVIEW

ARCLINE ENGINE ONLINE◆ ARCLINE ONLINE◆EVENT PGA_CHAMPIONSHIP◆FIELD 156◆MODEL_UPDATED 2026-05-13

// PICKS_FRAMEWORK · PGA_CHAMPIONSHIP · MAJOR · CUT_TOP_70

PGA CHAMPIONSHIP.

Par 70. 180 bunkers. Ross’s masterpiece doesn’t negotiate.

NEWTOWN_SQUARE_PAMAY_14–17PAR_70 · 7,394Y108TH_PGA_CHAMPIONSHIPWANAMAKER_TROPHY

156

FIELD

156-player field · Cut top 70 + ties after 36 holes

345+

SCHEFFLER_ODDS

DK Sportsbook defending champion

CUT_FORMAT

Top 70 + ties · 4-round stroke play

150$

BANKROLL

Seven tickets · edge-sized · $150 deployed

// POWERED_BY_THE_ARCLINE_ENGINE

01 · COURSE FIT PROFILE

// 01.1ARCLINE · COURSE FIT WEIGHTING

ARCLINE_EST

Derived from Aronimink’s architectural demands, the 2018 BMW Championship SG decomposition, and comp-course analysis (East Lake, Riviera, Winged Foot). Every Arcline projection for the PGA Championship is filtered through this weighting before salary and ownership adjustments are applied.

NODE_01SG:APP

MID_IRON_150–200Y

Primary separator. Mid-iron precision into crowned/canted Ross greens.

35%

NODE_02SG:PUTT

BENTGRASS_PUTTING

Green size creates lag-putt volume. 7.2 strokes gained putting won 2018 BMW here.

22%

NODE_03SG:ARG

BENTGRASS_COLLARS

180 bunkers guarantee scrambling situations every round.

18%

NODE_04SG:OTT

POSITION_SHAPE

Shape control over distance. 30-yd avg landing areas. Left-miss punished.

15%

NODE_05PAR4

PAR4_SCORING

12 par-4s compose the backbone. Birdie rate on the five accessible ones separates.

10%

// 01.2WINNING ARCHETYPE · FIELD FILTER

> MID_IRON_ELITE150–200 yard approach precision into quadrant-divided greens. The twelve par-4s demand controlled mid-iron, not wedge proximity.

> BENTGRASS_PUTTERNo chronic weakness. Volume of lag putts compounds across 72 holes. 7.2 strokes gained putting won the 2018 BMW here.

> SHAPE_CONTROLLERNot a bomber’s week. Position over distance. Left-miss is structural bogey risk at multiple holes.

> SCRAMBLERRoss collection areas + 180 bunkers = mandatory short-game volume every round. Sand save percentage matters.

> COURSE_MANAGERPar 70 scoring baseline. Patience on danger holes (#4, #11, #17). Exploit the five birdie holes (#5, #6, #9, #13, #16).

02 · WEATHER INTELLIGENCE

// 02.1ARONIMINK · WEATHER FORECAST

KEVIN_ROTH

Minimal weather concerns for the PGA Championship in Newtown PA.

Thursday

R1 · WIND_10–15MPH

We have a brief chance for an early morning shower, but it's dry beyond that. Winds are fairly steady in the 10-15mph range. We might be a bit closer to 10mph in the morning and 15mph by the afternoon, but it's close.

Friday

R2 · WIND_10MPH

Another somewhat "steady" day in winds, hovering around 10mph for most of the day. There is a noteworthy drop off in the very late afternoon, so some of the latest golfers could get a little bump on the back nine with lighter winds.

Saturday

R3 · WIND_5–10MPH

A more typical weather pattern, with lighter 5mph winds in the morning, climbing to 10mph in the afternoon.

Sunday

R4 · SHOWER_RISK

A chance for some showers with manageable winds. Peak winds should occur in the early afternoon, but only reach 10mph or so even at their highest, then taper off again in the later afternoon.

// OVERALL_READ

I don’t see a huge edge to be had here. If you can happen to find an early Thursday golfer who also is on the tee very late on Friday I suppose that would be an ideal scenario, but even then I think the difference is fairly slim.

— @KEVINROTHWX

03 · HISTORICAL SG DECOMPOSITION

// 03.1ARONIMINK WINNER SG DECOMPOSITION

ARCLINE_EST

YEAR	EVENT	WINNER	SCORE	OTT	APP	ARG	PUTT	T2G
2018	BMW CHAMPIONSHIP	Keegan Bradley	-13	EST	EST	EST	1st (7.2)	EST

> PATTERNBentgrass putting was the statistical signature of the 2018 winner — Keegan Bradley gained 7.2 strokes putting at Aronimink. Mid-iron precision into Ross’s crowned greens is the approach demand no other Tour venue replicates. This is not an OTT-dominant setup — it is the closest thing to a pure iron-and-putter test in professional golf.

// 03.2KEY HOLES · ARONIMINK

PAR_70 · 7,394Y

HOLE_04

P4 · 607Y

Longest par-4 in major history

607-yard par-4 demands two committed, controlled strikes. No shortcut. Scorecard-defining number.

HOLE_11

P4 · 410Y

Rollback green — composure test

Short uphill approach but excessive backspin sends ball 50 yards back down fairway. Patience over aggression.

HOLE_16

P5 · 555Y

Back-9 birdie window

Best scoring opportunity on the back nine. Reachable in two but wide shallow green demands high trajectory to hold.

HOLE_17

P3 · 229Y

Water left — tournament decider

Pond runs entire left side. Front-right pin over a bunker is the most exciting hole location in the setup.

HOLE_18

P4 · 490Y

Championship closer

Uphill approach into large tiered green. Internal complexity creates chaos on Sunday afternoon. Wanamaker decided here.

04 · CASH TARGETS

// 04.0CASH GAME · 4 TARGETS

FLOOR_FIRSTCUT_TOP_70

Aronimink’s par-70 layout with 12 par-4s and only two par-5s compresses scoring. Cut is top 70 + ties. Cash construction prioritizes made-cut certainty and floor — approach-dominant profiles who can survive the danger holes and convert the birdie windows. Scheffler anchors the top with the strongest all-around profile. Young is the course-fit mirror. Fitzpatrick brings precision leverage. Fleetwood fills the bentgrass-comfort slot at mid-value.

// ANCHORScottie Scheffler

DK $$13,900ODDS +345

Defending PGA champion. Won last year by 5 strokes. Field-best world ranking. Elite approach play, disciplined course management, bentgrass comfort — the full Aronimink profile. ARCLINE EST win probability ~22%. The market has him correctly priced at +345 — but correctly priced at world #1 entering a major where no one has course-history advantage is still the strongest single position available.

> FLOORBest player in the world entering a major at a course that rewards his profile — elite approach play, disciplined course management, bentgrass comfort. No Aronimink history for anyone neutralizes the history gap that typically separates chalk.

> RISK+345 is heavily juiced chalk. Ownership projects very high. No Aronimink course history for any player in the field — history adjustment effectively zero across the board.

// COURSE_FITCameron Young

DK $$10,200ODDS +1500

The mid-iron elite profile this course was built for. Leads the field in proximity from 150–200 yards — the primary statistical separator at Aronimink. Strong bentgrass putting history. Par-5 conversion rate among field's best — critical at a par-70 with only two par-5 scoring holes. ARCLINE EST win probability ~8%.

> FLOORApproach profile maps exactly to what Aronimink demands. At +1500, the market underweights his course-fit advantage relative to the field's short-game profiles.

> RISKNo Aronimink history. Major pressure on Sunday at a course that punishes composure lapses. The 11th and 17th holes specifically test the mental game.

// CASH_PIVOTMatt Fitzpatrick

DK $$10,000ODDS +1950

2022 U.S. Open champion at Brookline — a similarly demanding par-4-heavy, bentgrass layout requiring precision over power. SG:APP among the field's best. Strong scrambler. Course management profile fits Aronimink's patience-over-aggression mandate.

> FLOORThird or fourth tier ownership at a course his skill set fits better than the salary/chalk suggests. Leverage ratio among top salaries should be strong.

> RISKDriving distance below the field's upper tier. On a par-70 with 12 par-4s, his positional approach advantage must be perfect to compensate.

// MID_VALUETommy Fleetwood

DK $$9,700ODDS +2600

Five top-10s in 2026. Northeast parkland bentgrass comfort. Approach play elite. Still seeking first major but running the profile that Aronimink rewards — mid-iron precision and bentgrass surface comfort are his two best traits, and both are primary signals at this venue.

> FLOOR+2600 undervalues his recent form. Mid-iron precision and bentgrass surface comfort are his two best traits — both are primary signals at this venue.

> RISKClutch putting under Sunday major pressure has historically been his separator. If the lag putts at Aronimink's speed don't convert, approach quality can't fully compensate.

// CONSTRUCTION_NOTES

Scheffler ($13,900) anchoring cash is structurally sound but chalk-heavy at 33.5% projected ownership. Young ($10,200) + Fitzpatrick ($10,000) core = $20,200, unlocking the best leverage ratio in the top tier. Fill with bentgrass putters from the $6,100–$7,700 range — Hojgaard ($6,500), Scott ($7,500), and Spaun ($7,700) all project above their salary tier.

05 · GPP TARGETS

// 05.0GPP · LEVERAGE TARGETS

OWNERSHIP_ADJLEVERAGE_MAX

GPP construction lives in the mid-tier. Scheffler ($13,900) and the $9K+ names will be heavily owned — differentiation comes from the $6,100–$7,700 range where course-fit advantages are unpriced by the market. Five targets, all under $8K, including Detry at $6,100 as the deep value unlock. Build around these names or pair them with a single premium anchor. All projections via the Arcline golf model.

LEV · HOJGAARD

EST

+11000 · LEVERAGE_MAX

LEV · SCOTT

EST

+6400 · APPROACH_ELITE

LEV · SPAUN

EST

+10000 · MID_LEVERAGE

LEV · BRADLEY

EST

+12500 · COURSE_HISTORY

LEV · DETRY

EST

+16500 · DEEP_VALUE

// LEVERAGE_MAXNicolai Hojgaard

DK $$6,500ODDS +11000

The highest value score on the entire DraftKings slate (1.00 (consensus)). The Arcline golf model projects 60.8 points at $6,500 — that is $9K-tier production at a $6,500 price. At +11000 and 13.7% projected ownership, Hojgaard’s leverage ratio is strong relative to his projection floor. The approach profile fits Aronimink: controlled trajectory, bentgrass comfort from European Tour parkland, and the iron precision Ross’s greens demand.

> FLOORHighest value score on the board. 60.8 projected points at $6,500 unlocks premium construction everywhere else. 13.7% ownership is elevated but the projection justifies the exposure.

> RISKNo Aronimink or comparable U.S. bentgrass parkland history. The value score is model-derived, not course-proven. If the crowned greens punish his approach angles, the projection compresses.

// APPROACH_ELITEAdam Scott

DK $$7,500ODDS +6400

Leads the entire Tour field in SG: Approach entering this week. At a course where mid-iron precision from 150–200 yards is the primary separator, Scott’s iron profile is the best fit in the entire field by the single most important metric. The Arcline golf model projects 60.5 points at $7,500 with 9.7% ownership. Bentgrass comfort from years of Tour Championship and Northeast parkland play. At +6400 and sub-10% ownership, the leverage ratio is elite.

> FLOORTour leader in SG:APP at a venue where the Arcline golf model assigns 35% weight to approach play. That’s the entire thesis. Sub-10% ownership creates a massive leverage window.

> RISKAge-related decline in driving distance compresses his par-5 conversion ceiling. On a par-70 with only two par-5s, the par-5 penalty is muted — but the 607-yard 4th hole demands two full strikes he may not have.

// MID_LEVERAGEJ.J. Spaun

DK $$7,700ODDS +10000

The Arcline golf model projects 59.2 points at $7,700 with 11.0% ownership. Spaun’s profile is built on approach accuracy and course management — the two skills Aronimink weights highest after raw mid-iron proximity. At +10000, any top-20 finish returns massive GPP value. The par-70 layout compresses scoring enough that a patient, accurate player can grind into contention without elite power.

> FLOOR59.2 projected points at $7,700. Approach accuracy and course management profile maps to what Aronimink demands. 11% ownership is fair for the projection quality.

> RISK+10000 for a reason — ceiling is limited. Putting must run hot for four rounds on Aronimink’s bentgrass to convert the approach accuracy into scoring.

// COURSE_HISTORYKeegan Bradley

DK $$7,400ODDS +12500

Won the 2018 BMW Championship at Aronimink in a playoff over Justin Rose. The only player in the field with a victory on this property. Gained 7.2 strokes putting that week — the statistical signature of the venue. The Arcline golf model projects 55.1 points at $7,400 with 6.5% ownership. At +12500 and sub-7% ownership, the course-history edge is entirely unpriced by the market. Bentgrass comfort is proven, not modeled.

> FLOORThe only Aronimink winner in the field. 7.2 strokes gained putting on these specific greens. Course knowledge at a Donald Ross venue matters more than at a generic parkland stop. Sub-7% ownership.

> RISK2018 was eight years ago. Form has been inconsistent. The Arcline golf model projects only 55.1 points — the floor is lower than Scott or Spaun. If the putter that won here in 2018 doesn’t show up, the profile doesn’t project top-20 on talent alone.

// DEEP_VALUEThomas Detry

DK $$6,100ODDS +16500

The sub-$6,500 contrarian play with real projection backing. The Arcline golf model projects 55.0 points at $6,100 — a value score of 0.76, among the highest on the slate. Detry’s iron game is built for precision, not power — the profile Aronimink rewards. European Tour pedigree brings bentgrass comfort. At +16500 and 7.8% projected ownership, any top-30 finish at this salary creates GPP-winning differentiation.

> FLOORAt $6,100 he unlocks the entire premium tier. 55.0 projected points at that price is elite value. 7.8% ownership means real differentiation if he makes the cut and puts together a hot weekend.

> RISK+16500 for a reason — ceiling is capped. Major championship experience is limited. If Aronimink’s par-4 gauntlet overwhelms his iron game under major pressure, the floor drops to a missed cut.

// CONSTRUCTION_NOTES

Two viable builds. (1) SCHEFFLER_ON: Anchor Scheffler ($13,900) + Young ($10,200) = $24,100. Fill with Hojgaard ($6,500) + Detry ($6,100) + Bradley ($7,400) + Scott ($7,500) = $27,500. Total $51,600 — trim one premium or swap Scott for a $6K fill to hit cap. (2) SCHEFFLER_OFF: Young ($10,200) + Fitzpatrick ($10,000) at the top, Scott ($7,500) + Spaun ($7,700) mid, Hojgaard ($6,500) + Detry ($6,100) = $48,000. Under cap with room for a salary bump. Commit fully — never half-fade Scheffler.

06 · BETTING CARD

// 06.0$150 BANKROLL · 7 TICKETS

DK_SPORTSBOOK

BANKROLL

$150

TICKETS

AVG_EDGE

4.75pp

STRONG

3 / 6

> EDGE_RULEEdge = ARCLINE EST probability − DK implied probability, in percentage points. STRONG ≥ +5pp · EDGE ≥ +2pp · THIN ≥ 0pp · MARKET_SIDE < 0. Stake sized by edge magnitude with volatility cap on outrights. All the Arcline golf model probabilities marked EST.

// OUTRIGHT_01OUTRIGHTScottie Scheffler

ODDS +345DK_VERIFIED

STAKE

$15

TO_WIN

$52

IMPLIED

22.5%

ARCLINE_EST

22.0%

EDGE

-0.5pp

SIGNAL

MARKET_SIDE

> RATIONALEDefending champion, best player in the world, course rewards his profile. The market has him correctly priced — but correctly priced at world #1 entering a major where no one has course-history advantage is still the strongest single-ticket outright available. Small stake acknowledges the juice.

// OUTRIGHT_02OUTRIGHTCameron Young

ODDS +1500DK_VERIFIED

STAKE

$15

TO_WIN

$225

IMPLIED

6.3%

ARCLINE_EST

8.0%

EDGE

+1.8pp

SIGNAL

THIN

> RATIONALEThe only verified positive the Arcline golf model edge on the outright board. Mid-iron profile is purpose-built for Aronimink. +1500 underweights his course-fit advantage — the market prices his recent form without adequately adjusting for the specific skill set this course selects for. Leads the field in proximity from 150–200 yards.

// T10_01TOP 10Matt Fitzpatrick

ODDS +350VERIFY_ON_DK

STAKE

$25

TO_WIN

$88

IMPLIED

22.2%

ARCLINE_EST

32.0%

EDGE

+9.8pp

SIGNAL

STRONG

> RATIONALEApproach + scrambling profile. Brookline 2022 comp. Likely third-tier ownership creates real leverage. The Arcline golf model T10 probability ARCLINE EST ~32%. Precision over power at a venue that demands exactly that.

// T10_02TOP 10Tommy Fleetwood

ODDS +350VERIFY_ON_DK

STAKE

$25

TO_WIN

$88

IMPLIED

22.2%

ARCLINE_EST

30.0%

EDGE

+7.8pp

SIGNAL

STRONG

> RATIONALEFive top-10s in 2026. Bentgrass comfort. Approach elite. +2600 outright implies market undervaluing T10 probability. Mid-iron precision and bentgrass surface comfort map directly to Aronimink's primary separators.

// T20_01TOP 20Jon Rahm

ODDS +150VERIFY_ON_DK

STAKE

$20

TO_WIN

$30

IMPLIED

40.0%

ARCLINE_EST

48.0%

EDGE

+8.0pp

SIGNAL

STRONG

> RATIONALEFloor play. Third favorite with approach and major pedigree to make the leaderboard. The Arcline golf model T20 ARCLINE EST ~48%. 2023 Masters champion at a course that rewards patience under pressure.

// T20_02TOP 20Ludvig Aberg

ODDS +175VERIFY_ON_DK

STAKE

$20

TO_WIN

$35

IMPLIED

36.4%

ARCLINE_EST

38.0%

EDGE

+1.6pp

SIGNAL

THIN

> RATIONALEBall-striking elite. Approach profile fits. Sub-20% ownership expected. The Arcline golf model T20 ARCLINE EST ~38%. The power-plus-precision combination Aronimink doesn't punish.

// PARLAY_012-LEG T10Young + Fitzpatrick

+650COMBINED_FROM_LEGS

> Cameron YoungT10+350EST 35.0%

> Matt FitzpatrickT10+350EST 32.0%

STAKE

$30

TO_WIN

$195

IMPLIED

13.3%

ARCLINE_EST

11.2%

EDGE

-2.1pp

SIGNAL

MARKET_SIDE

> RATIONALETwo highest-leverage approach profiles at different salary tiers. Young brings proximity from 150–200 yards (field leader) and par-5 conversion ceiling. Fitzpatrick brings the Brookline pedigree and scrambling floor. Positively correlated at a course where mid-iron precision is the primary separator. If Aronimink plays as a pure iron test, their outcomes are linked.

// TICKET_SUMMARY

$15Scheffler outright @ +345 — defending champion, market-side but strongest profile$15Young outright @ +1500 — only positive the Arcline golf model edge on the outright board$25Fitzpatrick T10 @ +350 — approach + scrambling, Brookline comp (VERIFY ON DK)$25Fleetwood T10 @ +350 — bentgrass comfort, five 2026 top-10s (VERIFY ON DK)$20Rahm T20 @ +150 — floor play, major pedigree (VERIFY ON DK)$20Aberg T20 @ +175 — ball-striking elite, approach profile fits (VERIFY ON DK)$30Parlay Young + Fitzpatrick T10 @ +650 — correlated iron profiles

TOTAL_DEPLOYED$150 · 100.0%

// DK odds drift before posted tee times — verify before placing. All the Arcline golf model probabilities marked EST are model-derived estimates. Wager responsibly.

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