Fifteen games on a Tuesday, and the slate was unkind. The moneyline board went 0-1. The totals board went 0-2. Nothing was particularly close in the wrong direction — the under we tracked in Texas at Seattle got demolished by 15 combined runs, and the over we tracked in Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee fell one run short of the line at 7. When you go 0-3 across your graded leans, you want at least one of them to be a near-miss you can live with. Tuesday did not offer that luxury.

The saving grace was on the DFS side, where a couple of projections landed well enough to matter in lineups that trusted them. That does not offset a bad betting night, but it is worth separating the two conversations.

No money was formally staked on Tuesday — card_graded is null, meaning nothing made the card. What follows is the lean board: tracked edges with no units attached. We grade them here because the record is the record, and pretending the misses did not happen would not serve anyone.

The Leans

• BOS ML vs. LAA — Lean (5.9 pp edge). LAA 6, BOS 1. LOSS. The Angels were not supposed to win by five. Reid Detmers would go on to throw six scoreless innings on the same night, which tells you something about how the Angels' pitching staff is performing right now — just not in a way that helped the Boston side of this bet. The edge cleared our 5-point threshold, so it earned a tracked lean. The result was a clean loss.
• CHC @ MIL Over 7.5 — Lean. Final: CHC 3, MIL 4, 7 total runs. LOSS. One run shy. Jackson Chourio went 4-for-5 with a home run and two RBI for Milwaukee and still the game landed under the number, which is the kind of thing that happens when pitching holds on both sides of a low-scoring game. The over needed more and did not get it.
• TEX @ SEA Under 8 — Lean. Final: TEX 10, SEA 5, 15 total runs. LOSS. This one was not close. Fifteen runs against an 8-run line is a blowout in the wrong direction. The Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners combined for seven more runs than the total, and the under was cooked well before the late innings. When a game finishes nearly double your line, there is not much to analyze in the outcome itself — the environment just ran hot.

Three tracked leans, three losses. The lean board holds those results the same way it would hold wins.

Four hundred fifty-eight players scored on the DFS slate. We matched 223 of them to projections. Here is how the notable names broke down.

Top Scorers

• Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees — 36.0 DK pts ($11,200 salary). Line: 7.0 IP, 10 K, 1 ER. Our projection: 22.43. He outperformed the projection by nearly 14 points, which is a significant gap, but this was the right player in the right spot — we had him as the highest-projected arm on the slate among named plays, and he rewarded the trust. Seven innings and ten strikeouts at that salary is exactly the kind of upside that justifies the price.
• Reid Detmers, Los Angeles Angels — 33.7 DK pts (salary unavailable). Line: 6.0 IP, 9 K, 0 ER. Our projection: 18.01. Detmers delivered a shutdown performance — six innings, nine strikeouts, nothing across the plate — in a game where the Angels won 6-1. Fifteen-plus points above projection. His salary is not in the brief, so we cannot speak to the value calculation, but the performance was one of the best pitching lines of the day.
• Jackson Chourio, Milwaukee Brewers — 29.0 DK pts ($5,600 salary). Line: 4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI. Our projection: 8.46. The biggest positive delta by ratio on the slate among named players. We projected him at 8.46 and he put up 29, going nearly 4-for-5 with a home run. At $5,600 he was one of the more accessible bats on the board, and this was a case where a hitter simply had a big game against the grain of what the projection suggested. Hard to call it a hit when the projection was that far off, but the player delivered.
• Bubba Chandler, Pittsburgh Pirates — 27.1 DK pts ($6,500 salary). Line: 6.0 IP, 8 K, 2 ER. Our projection: 13.41. Solid value at that salary — roughly 14 points above projection. Six innings and eight strikeouts is a quality start by any measure.
• Juan Soto, New York Mets — 27.0 DK pts (salary unavailable). Line: 2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI. Our projection: unavailable. No projection on file for Soto. He was one of the five highest scorers on the slate and we cannot speak to where we had him because the data is not there.

Where We Were Right

Schlittler, Detmers, and Chourio are the documented best calls. Schlittler and Detmers were both projected as strong arms and delivered well above expectation. Chourio was the outlier — a hitter we had well below his actual output who still ended up being a best call by raw DK points, which reflects the ceiling of the performance rather than the accuracy of the projection.

Where We Missed

• Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians — Projected 15.9, scored -2.4. Line: 4.3 IP, 1 K, 5 ER. He did not get through five innings, struck out one batter, and allowed five runs. That is a negative DK score and a significant miss from a 15-point projection. Any lineup built around Bibee took a real hit.
• Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins — Projected 15.15, scored -9.4. Line: 4.3 IP, 1 K, 7 ER. The worst outcome on the miss list. Seven earned runs and a negative score close to 10 points — any roster that included Alcantara was likely out of contention by the middle innings. The projection assumed a meaningfully better performance than what arrived.
• Brandon Young, Baltimore Orioles — Projected 14.34, scored -6.3. Line: 3.7 IP, 2 K, 6 ER. Young did not make it through four innings and allowed six runs. Another significant negative score against a mid-teens projection.

All three misses were starting pitchers who came out early with high earned-run totals. That is a pattern worth noting — not a cause, but a useful reminder that pitching projections carry real downside when the command is not there.

Tuesday's totals were a useful, if uncomfortable, reminder that the distribution of run environments on a 15-game slate is wide. The under in Texas-Seattle was not a close loss — it was a 15-run game against an 8-run line. When a game lands that far from the projection, it is worth asking whether something in the game environment changed that was not visible pregame, rather than treating it as pure variance. We will check the game data before drawing conclusions about the model's assumptions.

On the pitching side, Bibee, Alcantara, and Young each delivered early exits with elevated run totals. Three starting pitchers in the same direction on the same night is not a trend, but DFS pitching exposure is a concentration risk that showed up clearly. When multiple projection-heavy starters go negative, the damage compounds quickly across lineups.

The other side of that coin is Schlittler and Detmers, who both far exceeded projection in the same session. Pitching variance runs both ways. The honest read is that Tuesday was a rough night on the card-adjacent side and a mixed night on DFS, with the high-projection arms splitting sharply between excellent and damaging. We carry the 0-3 lean record into Wednesday without adjustment to position.