Fifteen games on a Sunday, no moneyline action staked, one totals lean tracked on the board — and that lean finished comfortably. The Toronto Blue Jays and Kansas City Royals combined for seven runs against a 9.5 total, which is the kind of clean result that doesn't need a lot of narrative. The pitching dominated, the bats quieted, the number held.

The overall record on the day: 0-0 on moneylines, 1-0 on totals. A quiet betting slate with a tidy outcome on the one side we tracked.

No money was down Sunday. Nothing made the card — no moneyline or totals play cleared our bar for a staked position, and we didn't manufacture one. That's a real outcome, not a gap in the record.

The Leans

One tracked edge on the board: TOR @ KC, Under 9.5. Final score was Toronto 1, Kansas City 6 — seven combined runs, well inside the number. The lean graded WIN. No money attached, but it's logged and it counted the right way.

Sunday's DFS slate scored 472 players, with 224 matched back to our projections. The range between best and worst outcomes was about as wide as it gets in a single day.

Top Scorers

• Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): 38.2 DK points — 8.0 IP, 9 strikeouts, 0 earned runs. Our projection was 26.57. That's a 43-percent beat, and it was earned through the kind of outing where a starter simply doesn't give you a reason to pull him.
• Payton Tolle (Boston Red Sox): 37.1 DK points — 6.0 IP, 12 strikeouts, 1 earned run, at a $9,900 salary. Our projection was 18.25. Tolle more than doubled the number. Twelve punchouts in six innings is a performance that pushes any projection model to its ceiling.
• Jake Burger (Texas Rangers): 34 DK points — 2-for-4, 2 home runs, 3 RBI. Our projection was 6.26. We did not see that coming, and we won't pretend otherwise.
• Elly De La Cruz (Cincinnati Reds): 29 DK points — 2-for-4, 1 home run, 4 RBI. Our projection was 7.68.
• Heriberto Hernandez (Miami Marlins): 28 DK points — 2-for-4, 1 home run, 2 RBI, 1 stolen base, at a $4,300 salary. Our projection was 6.46. At that price, the upside was always there; the outcome delivered on it.

Where We Hit

Woo and Tolle are the honest best-call story of the day. Both were projected as strong plays — 26.57 and 18.25 respectively — and both cleared those projections by a significant margin. When a model points you toward a starting pitcher and he goes eight scoreless with nine strikeouts, the process held up even if the result exceeded the number. Burger's 34-point day against a 6.26 projection is in the best-calls list too, and the gap there is harder to take credit for — the model identified upside, but not at that magnitude.

Where We Missed

Three pitchers went the wrong direction, and two of them went badly wrong.

• Ian Seymour (Tampa Bay Rays): projected 17.01, finished at 1.1 DK points — 3.0 IP, 2 strikeouts, 3 earned runs. A short, damaged outing against a projection built for length and efficiency.
• MacKenzie Gore (Texas Rangers): projected 14.94, finished at -7.3 DK points — 3.0 IP, 1 strikeout, 5 earned runs. Negative DraftKings points means the earned runs wiped out everything else. That's a brutal line to absorb.
• Justin Wrobleski (Los Angeles Dodgers): projected 14.53, finished at 5.4 DK points — 3.0 IP, 6 strikeouts, 4 earned runs. The strikeout rate was there; the run prevention was not.

All three were projected in the 15-to-17 range — solid mid-tier SP plays — and all three were pulled before the fifth inning with earned run totals that erased the upside. The miss pattern here is consistent: short outings from starters we expected to go deeper.

The totals lean graded cleanly, and the discipline of keeping nothing on the card when nothing cleared the bar is its own result. One-and-zero on tracked totals is a good day by any measure.

On the DFS side, Sunday was a good reminder of how bifurcated pitcher outcomes can be in a single slate. Woo and Tolle were excellent; Seymour, Gore, and Wrobleski were early exits. The projection model identified all five as viable plays — the difference between them was execution and run prevention, two things no model fully controls for. Burger and De La Cruz are the kind of hitter explosions that are nearly impossible to project at scale, and Hernandez at $4,300 is exactly the profile where salary efficiency creates room for upside when a player delivers.

The honest forward-looking note: when three starting pitchers in a comparable projection range all fail to complete five innings on the same day, it's worth checking whether there's a shared structural factor — opposing lineups, recent workload, weather — or whether Sunday was noise. We'll look at the game-level data before drawing conclusions either way.