PICKS FRAMEWORK · GOLF · 2026-05-20

2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson — ARCLINE DFS & Betting Guide

The Arcline golf model's cash targets, GPP leverage plays, and $150 betting card for the 2026 CJ Cup Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas.

Arcline Analytics

00 · OVERVIEW

ARCLINE ENGINE ONLINE◆ ARCLINE ONLINE◆EVENT CJ_CUP_BYRON_NELSON◆FIELD 147◆MODEL_UPDATED 2026-05-20

// PICKS_FRAMEWORK · CJ_CUP_BYRON_NELSON · STANDARD · CUT_TOP_65

CJ CUP BYRON NELSON.

Par 71. Wide fairways. Birdie season opens in McKinney.

MCKINNEY_TXMAY_21–24PAR_71 · 7,385Y6TH_YEAR_AT_CRAIG_RANCHBYRON_NELSON_TROPHY

147

FIELD

147-player field \u00B7 Cut top 65 + ties after 36 holes

155+

SCHEFFLER_ODDS

Defending champion, DK Sportsbook favorite

CUT_FORMAT

Top 65 + ties \u00B7 4-round stroke play

150$

BANKROLL

Seven tickets \u00B7 edge-sized \u00B7 $150 deployed

// POWERED_BY_THE_ARCLINE_ENGINE

01 · COURSE FIT PROFILE

// 01.1ARCLINE · COURSE FIT WEIGHTING

ARCLINE_EST

Derived from TPC Craig Ranch’s birdie-friendly Weiskopf design, five years of course history (2021–2025), and comp-course analysis (John Deere Classic, TPC Louisiana, TPC Four Seasons Las Colinas). Every Arcline projection for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson is filtered through this weighting before salary and ownership adjustments are applied.

NODE_01SG:APP

MID_IRON

Primary separator. Large receptive greens reward iron precision. Three of five winners finished top-13 in SG:APP.

30%

NODE_02SG:PUTT

BENTGRASS

Bentgrass greens demand consistent putting volume. Four of five winners excelled with the putter.

25%

NODE_03PAR4

PAR4_SCORING

Six par-4s over 450 yards. Four of five winners finished top-5 in par-4 scoring for the week.

20%

NODE_04SG:OTT

DISTANCE

Wide fairways reward aggressive tee shots. Distance creates birdie looks. Scheffler gained +12.1 SG:APP in 2025.

15%

NODE_05SG:ARG

SCRAMBLING

83 bunkers and water on eight holes guarantee scrambling situations. Short game separates late in the week.

10%

// 01.2WINNING ARCHETYPE · FIELD FILTER

> IRON_ELITEMid-iron precision into large bentgrass greens is the primary statistical separator. Three of five winners finished top-13 in SG:APP.

> BIRDIE_MACHINEScoring conditions demand volume. Winning scores range from -23 to -31. Players who can’t make consecutive birdies won’t contend.

> BENTGRASS_PUTTERFour of five winners had strong putting weeks. Consistency on bentgrass over 72 holes separates the field.

> PAR4_SCORERSix par-4s over 450 yards define the round. The winners exploit these holes rather than survive them.

> DRIVING_AGGRESSIVEWide fairways reward tee-to-green distance. This is not a course where accuracy off the tee constricts strategy.

02 · WEATHER INTELLIGENCE

// 02.1TPC CRAIG RANCH · WEATHER FORECAST

KEVIN_ROTH

Significant weather disruption expected at TPC Craig Ranch. Rain delays and storm threats all four rounds.

Thursday

R1 · STORM_RISK

Dry morning with light 5mph winds... the winds don't budge much, but the rain chances climb dramatically in the afternoon. Good chance of a storm delay, decent chance they can't finish the round.

Friday

R2 · CALM

Dry. Winds are calm in the morning, light in the afternoon (max 5-10mph). All in all, a much better day for golf.

Saturday

R3 · STORM_RISK

Rain and storm chances return, possible delay at any point. Winds gradually build through the day, highest in the afternoon, but likely topping out around 10mph sustained with stronger gusts.

Sunday

R4 · STORM_RISK

Another day with a chance of rain and storms. Winds, again, are not the issue here, topping out around 5-10mph sustained.

// OVERALL_READ

I don’t see a strong weather advantage to be had here, mostly due to the chaos that potential rain delays brings to the mix. Winds though are mostly light and manageable, so I would just play the golfers you like and see how the rain works out as the tournament goes along.

— @KEVINROTHWX

03 · HISTORICAL SG DECOMPOSITION

// 03.1TPC CRAIG RANCH WINNER HISTORY

PGA_TOUR_ARCHIVE

YEAR	EVENT	WINNER	SCORE	APP NOTE
2025	CJ CUP BYRON NELSON	Scottie Scheffler	-31	+12.1 SG:APP — historic approach dominance
2024	AT&T BYRON NELSON	Taylor Pendrith	-23	Top-5 SG:APP for the week
2023	AT&T BYRON NELSON	Jason Day	-23	Strong approach + bentgrass putting
2022	AT&T BYRON NELSON	K.H. Lee	-26	Second in par-4 efficiency
2021	AT&T BYRON NELSON	K.H. Lee	-25	Led field in par-4 scoring

> PATTERNIron play and putting are the twin pillars of TPC Craig Ranch. Scottie Scheffler’s 2025 performance (+12.1 SG:APP) is the statistical benchmark. Three of five winners finished top-13 in both SG:APP and SG:PUTT. Par-4 scoring has separated the winner from the field in four of five editions. Winning scores cluster between -23 and -26 — except when Scheffler is in the field.

// 03.2KEY HOLES · TPC CRAIG RANCH

PAR_71 · 7,385Y

HOLE_12

P4 · 492Y

Longest par-4 — former par-5

Former par-5 converted to the longest par-4 on the course. Demands two committed iron strikes. Separates the field in par-4 scoring.

HOLE_16

P4 · 455Y

Water in play — bogey risk

Water in play. Approach requires precise mid-iron to a well-guarded green. Bogey risk compounds on moving day.

HOLE_18

P5 · 550Y

Championship closer — eagle possible

Closing par-5. Reachable in two for most of the field. Eagle and birdie are legitimate Sunday outcomes. Renovation added bunker complexity.

HOLE_05

P4 · 445Y

Birdie window — early runway

Back-to-back scoring opportunities early in the round (#5/#6). Players who convert here gain the runway to manage the harder stretch.

04 · CASH TARGETS

// 04.0CASH GAME · 4 TARGETS

FLOOR_FIRSTCUT_TOP_65

TPC Craig Ranch’s par-71 layout with soft bentgrass greens and wide fairways produces scoring compression in wet conditions. Cash construction prioritizes made-cut certainty and floor — iron-dominant profiles who can exploit the birdie windows and survive the storm-delay chaos. Scheffler anchors with the strongest all-around profile at any price. Kim brings course history and iron precision at mid-value.

// ANCHORScottie Scheffler

DK $$14,800ODDS +155

Defending champion who won here by eight strokes at -31. Field-best SG:APP last year (+12.1). Weaker field than any Signature Event means Scheffler’s edge is amplified. ARCLINE EST win probability ~30%. At +155, the market has him correctly priced as a borderline cinch — which at cash game stakes still makes him the structural anchor. Coming off a putting dip at Aronimink, a return to the bentgrass of Craig Ranch should recalibrate.

> FLOORBest player in the world returning to a course he dominated by a historically absurd margin. Weaker field means a top-10 finish is near-certain if healthy.

> RISK+155 implies 39% win probability. At $14,800, he costs more than any other player by a significant margin. The risk is salary compression — not performance.

// COURSE_FITSi Woo Kim

DK $$9,900ODDS +1300

Dallas resident with deep familiarity at TPC Craig Ranch. Ranks second in this field in tee-to-green SG over the last three months, behind only Scheffler. Top-10 in driving accuracy, SG:OTT, and iron play this season. The former Players Championship winner’s putting will be the separator — if the putter runs hot on bentgrass, the course-fit case is the strongest in the non-Scheffler tier. ARCLINE EST win probability ~7%.

> FLOORSecond-best tee-to-green profile in the field. Course familiarity from Dallas residency. If his putting converts this week, the mid-iron precision creates a realistic contention floor.

> RISKPutting inconsistency is the known ceiling cap. Wide win distribution means he can finish anywhere from T2 to MC depending on the flat stick.

// CASH_PIVOTBrooks Koepka

DK $$9,600ODDS +2200

Five-time major champion coming off a strong tee-to-green week at Aronimink. Ranks third in this field in true SG:T2G. Top-20 in five of his last eight events. At a course that rewards patient iron play and par-4 scoring — both Koepka strengths — his cash floor is higher than the +2200 odds imply. At $9,600 he unlocks strong mid-tier construction.

> FLOORTop-20 in five of last eight. Ball-striking elite profile maps to Craig Ranch’s par-4 demands. +2200 at $9,600 creates legitimate cash floor at a course where par-4 scoring is the primary separator.

> RISKOne start at TPC Craig Ranch competitively. Putting hasn’t been elite this season. If rain delays compress the field and the putter doesn’t cooperate, the floor compresses.

// MID_VALUEJordan Spieth

DK $$9,800ODDS +1600

Texas native who sleeps in his own bed this week. Four starts at TPC Craig Ranch: T9, T2, MC, T4. Ranked second in SG:T2G at Aronimink last week. His iron game has been returning to form throughout 2026, and the wedge game is consistently elite. If the putting that showed up on Thursday at Aronimink carries over to McKinney, the course-familiarity argument is legitimate at +1600.

> FLOORFour starts at Craig Ranch, three strong finishes. Home course familiarity in wet, low-scoring conditions is a known advantage. Ball-striking returning to form gives the floor.

> RISKNo top-10 in any event since the 2025 Memorial. Putting lapses remain frequent despite Thursday flashes. The +1600 price implies more consistency than his 2026 results support.

// CONSTRUCTION_NOTES

Scheffler ($14,800) anchoring cash is structurally sound at 52.6% projected ownership. Kim ($9,900) + Koepka ($9,600) core = $19,500. Fill with Eckroat ($7,500) + Smith ($7,400) + Blanchet ($6,800) from the value tier. SCHEFFLER_OFF: Spieth ($9,800) + Kim ($9,900) at the top, fill with Bezuidenhout ($8,300), Eckroat ($7,500), Smith ($7,400), and one from the $6,800–$7,200 range.

05 · GPP TARGETS

// 05.0GPP · LEVERAGE TARGETS

OWNERSHIP_ADJLEVERAGE_MAX

Scheffler’s $14,800 price tag and 52.6% projected ownership means GPP differentiation lives in the $6,800–$8,300 tier. These five players project above their salary tier at a venue where iron play and putting are the separators — not raw power or name recognition. Jordan Smith ($7,400) carries the slate’s highest value score. Any of them inside the top 20 at sub-$8K salary wins you your GPP contest.

LEV · BEZUIDENHOUT

+6500

$$8,300 · TEXAS_SPECIALIST

LEV · KIM

+5000

$$7,800 · MID_LEVERAGE

LEV · ECKROAT

+4500

$$7,500 · COURSE_HISTORY

LEV · SMITH

+8000

$$7,400 · VALUE_PLAY

LEV · BLANCHET

+15000

$$6,800 · DEEP_VALUE

// TEXAS_SPECIALISTChristiaan Bezuidenhout

DK $$8,300ODDS +6500

Has gained the most strokes on Texas courses outside of Scheffler over the last 36 rounds. Eight top-25 finishes in his last 10 Texas starts across Valero, Houston, Charles Schwab, and Byron Nelson. Colonial — the closest model to TPC Craig Ranch — is where his profile projects strongest. The Arcline golf model projects 74.1 points at $8,300 with just 9.6% ownership. At +6500, the Texas-specialist thesis is entirely unpriced.

> FLOORTexas specialist with proven course-type fit across every comparable Texas venue. The strongest regional-fit case in the field after Scheffler, Kim, and Spieth. 9.6% ownership creates real differentiation.

> RISKHas not won a PGA Tour event outright. If the ceiling requires a conversion moment he hasn’t produced, the GPP floor relies entirely on a top-20.

// MID_LEVERAGETom Kim

DK $$7,800ODDS +5000

The Arcline golf model projects 73.4 points at $7,800 — strong value ratio at 0.44. The 23-year-old’s iron game has been consistently elite this season, and the bentgrass putting surface at Craig Ranch suits his stroke. At +5000 and 11.3% projected ownership, the leverage ratio is legitimate. Two wins on Tour already, including a signature-event pedigree. His ball-striking translates to any birdie-volume setup.

> FLOOR73.4 projected points at $7,800 creates real salary relief. Iron precision translates directly to Craig Ranch’s mid-iron demands. Two-time Tour winner with big-stage experience.

> RISK11.3% ownership is elevated for this salary tier. If the field chalks him up further, the leverage compresses. Putting can be streaky week to week.

// COURSE_HISTORYAustin Eckroat

DK $$7,500ODDS +4500

Runner-up at TPC Craig Ranch in 2024, one shot behind Jason Day. Shot an 8-under 63 — one stroke shy of his career low — that week. Ranks fifth in this field in SG per round at this venue. The Arcline golf model projects 70.5 points at $7,500 with 13.1% ownership. Coming into the week with three consecutive top-20 finishes as his iron game and short game have returned to form.

> FLOORT2 at Craig Ranch in 2024. Fifth in field by course SG per round. At $7,500, the course-history case is the strongest outside the top tier.

> RISKMissed the cut here in 2025. 13.1% ownership is high for a $7,500 salary — the market knows the course-history story. Driving accuracy not fully back to prior elite levels.

// VALUE_PLAYJordan Smith

DK $$7,400ODDS +8000

The highest value score on the slate at 0.67 per the Arcline golf model's model. Projects 75.5 points at $7,400 — that is $9K-tier production at a $7,400 price. At +8000 and just 8.2% projected ownership, Smith’s leverage ratio is the best in the mid-tier. European Tour pedigree brings bentgrass comfort. Iron play from 150–200 yards has been consistently strong this season.

> FLOORHighest value score on the board. 75.5 projected points at $7,400 unlocks premium construction everywhere else. 8.2% ownership creates genuine GPP differentiation.

> RISKLimited PGA Tour course history in Texas. The value score is model-derived, not course-proven at Craig Ranch specifically. If the wind disrupts his European-style ball flight, the projection compresses.

// DEEP_VALUEChandler Blanchet

DK $$6,800ODDS +15000

The sub-$7,000 contrarian play with real projection backing. The Arcline golf model projects 65.0 points at $6,800 with just 5.4% ownership. At +15000, any made-cut performance with a hot putting round creates GPP-winning differentiation at this salary. The wide fairways at Craig Ranch remove the driving accuracy concern that limits him at tighter venues. In rain-softened scoring conditions, Blanchet’s iron game can produce birdie volume.

> FLOORAt $6,800 he unlocks the entire premium tier. 5.4% ownership means real differentiation if he makes the cut and strings together a hot weekend round.

> RISK+15000 for a reason — ceiling is capped. Limited Tour pedigree means the floor is a missed cut. GPP-only play — not a cash target.

// CONSTRUCTION_NOTES

Two builds. (1) SCHEFFLER_ON: Scheffler ($14,800) + Bezuidenhout ($8,300) = $23,100. Fill with Smith ($7,400) + Eckroat ($7,500) + Blanchet ($6,800) + one from $5,200–$5,400 range. (2) SCHEFFLER_OFF: Kim ($9,900) + Tom Kim ($7,800) + Eckroat ($7,500) + Smith ($7,400) + Bezuidenhout ($8,300) + Blanchet ($6,800) = $47,700. Under cap with room to bump. If fading Scheffler, commit fully — don’t half-fade with a 10% exposure.

06 · BETTING CARD

// 06.0$150 BANKROLL · 7 TICKETS

DK_SPORTSBOOK

BANKROLL

$140

TICKETS

AVG_EDGE

+3.9pp

STRONG

4 / 6

> EDGE_RULEEdge = ARCLINE EST probability − DK implied probability, in percentage points. STRONG ≥ +5pp · EDGE ≥ +2pp · THIN ≥ 0pp · MARKET_SIDE < 0. Stake sized by edge magnitude. All the Arcline golf model probabilities marked EST.

// OUTRIGHT_01OUTRIGHTScottie Scheffler

ODDS +155DK_VERIFIED

STAKE

$10

TO_WIN

$16

IMPLIED

39.2%

ARCLINE_EST

30.0%

EDGE

-9.2pp

SIGNAL

MARKET_SIDE

> RATIONALEDefending champion, best player in the world, course where he gained +12.1 SG:APP last year. Market has him juiced relative to true probability — but correctly priced chalk at a home venue with a weak field is still the single most reliable outright available. Tiny stake acknowledges the negative edge. The optionality of a 31-under blitz is worth a small ticket.

// OUTRIGHT_02OUTRIGHTSi Woo Kim

ODDS +1300DK_VERIFIED

STAKE

$15

TO_WIN

$195

IMPLIED

7.1%

ARCLINE_EST

9.0%

EDGE

+1.9pp

SIGNAL

THIN

> RATIONALESecond-best tee-to-green profile in the field behind only Scheffler. Dallas resident with course familiarity. +1300 underweights the iron precision and local knowledge combination. The putting is the separator — if Kim’s flat stick runs hot this week, the ARCLINE EST win probability could reach double digits.

// T10_01TOP 10Jordan Spieth

ODDS +350VERIFY_ON_DK

STAKE

$25

TO_WIN

$88

IMPLIED

22.2%

ARCLINE_EST

30.0%

EDGE

+7.8pp

SIGNAL

STRONG

> RATIONALEFour starts at Craig Ranch, three top-10 or better. Ranked second in SG:T2G at Aronimink last week — ball-striking form is genuinely returning. At a course he’s finished T9, T2, T4, the T10 probability should clear 30% easily. If his putter from Thursday at Aronimink carries to McKinney, the ceiling is a win.

// T10_02TOP 10Brooks Koepka

ODDS +400VERIFY_ON_DK

STAKE

$20

TO_WIN

$80

IMPLIED

20.0%

ARCLINE_EST

27.0%

EDGE

+7.0pp

SIGNAL

STRONG

> RATIONALETop-20 in five of his last eight events. Third in field in true SG:T2G. Second on approach among contenders. At +400 with thin Craig Ranch course history, the market underweights the ball-striking profile at a venue where that is the primary separator. One of the best T10 values on the board relative to implied probability.

// T20_01TOP 20Austin Eckroat

ODDS +220VERIFY_ON_DK

STAKE

$20

TO_WIN

$44

IMPLIED

31.3%

ARCLINE_EST

40.0%

EDGE

+8.8pp

SIGNAL

STRONG

> RATIONALET2 at TPC Craig Ranch in 2024 — the course-history case is proven. Three consecutive top-20s entering the week. At +220 for a T20 at a venue where he’s finished top-5, the implied probability drastically underweights his course fit. Best floor bet on the card.

// T20_02TOP 20Jordan Smith

ODDS +300VERIFY_ON_DK

STAKE

$20

TO_WIN

$60

IMPLIED

25.0%

ARCLINE_EST

32.0%

EDGE

+7.0pp

SIGNAL

STRONG

> RATIONALEHighest value score on the entire slate (0.67). The Arcline golf model projects 75.5 points at $7,400 — $9K-tier production at a sub-$7,500 price. At +300 for a T20, the implied probability underweights his projection quality. European Tour bentgrass pedigree translates directly to Craig Ranch’s 777 Bentgrass surface.

// PARLAY_012-LEG T10Spieth + Eckroat

+800COMBINED_FROM_LEGS

> Jordan SpiethT10+350EST 30.0%

> Austin EckroatT10+400EST 40.0%

STAKE

$30

TO_WIN

$240

IMPLIED

11.1%

ARCLINE_EST

12.0%

EDGE

+0.9pp

SIGNAL

THIN

> RATIONALESpieth brings home-course comfort and returning ball-striking. Eckroat brings proven course history and returning form. Positively correlated — both profiles benefit from the wet, soft scoring conditions that favor iron precision over brute-force distance. Marginally positive the Arcline golf model edge. The $240 return on a $30 ticket justifies the thin edge.

// TICKET_SUMMARY

$10Scheffler outright @ +155 — defending champ, market-side, small ticket$15Si Woo Kim outright @ +1300 — thin positive the Arcline golf model edge, iron precision$25Spieth T10 @ +350 — course history + returning form (VERIFY ON DK)$20Koepka T10 @ +400 — ball-striking elite, five top-20s in last eight (VERIFY ON DK)$20Eckroat T20 @ +220 — T2 at Craig Ranch 2024, three straight top-20s (VERIFY ON DK)$20Smith T20 @ +300 — highest value score on slate, 75.5 proj at $7,400 (VERIFY ON DK)$30Parlay Spieth + Eckroat T10 @ +800 — correlated wet-conditions profiles

TOTAL_DEPLOYED$140 · 93.3%

~$10 held as live reserve for mid-round value.

// DK odds drift before posted tee times — verify before placing. All the Arcline golf model probabilities marked EST are model-derived estimates. Wager responsibly.

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