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CADDIE COURSE DNA • MASTERS 2026
Augusta National: What the Data Actually Demands
Arcline Analytics Research • April 9, 2026 • 18 min read
Augusta National's predictability score of 0.484 means salary rank explains nearly half of all DFS scoring variance at the Masters. No other major comes close. The U.S. Open scores 0.31, the PGA Championship 0.28. Augusta rewards favorites—the highest-owned player has averaged a 4th place finish over the last six years. Three of the last six Masters winners were the single most popular DFS pick in the field.
Approach play is king at Augusta. The Sub-Air greens at 13+ on the Stimpmeter demand precision iron play—and with drought conditions creating firm, fast surfaces this week, approaches that land short or long will run off into collection areas. Five of the last six Masters winners gained strokes on approach. Off-the-tee and putting share equal weight at 28% each—Augusta's fairways are generous but its greens are not.
Historical scoring average vs. par for each hole at Augusta National. Derived from Masters tournament scoring data.
Scoring averages from historical Masters data. Skill demands derived from CADDIE's Course DNA model at Augusta.
The 4 holes where the Masters is won and lost.
Amen Corner is where the Masters is decided. Holes 11, 12, and 13 combine for a net scoring average of +0.15—meaning the field loses strokes here despite hole 13 being the highest eagle-rate hole on the course. The pressure of the water on 11, the wind on 12, and the creek on 13 creates a gauntlet that separates contenders from also-rans.
Augusta's four par 5s combine for a net scoring average of -1.40 per round. Players who score -2.0 or better on par 5s gain a massive advantage. The par 5s are where lineups are built—target players with elite par 5 scoring and the length to reach in two.
Six-year winner profile from the Masters. Salary, DraftKings points, and ownership data.
| Year | Winner | Salary | DK Pts | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Dustin Johnson | $10,000 | 142.0 | 34.0% |
| 2021 | Hideki Matsuyama | $8,300 | 118.0 | 7.8% |
| 2022 | Scottie Scheffler | $11,000 | 108.0 | 9.5% |
| 2023 | Jon Rahm | $10,800 | 112.5 | 15.6% |
| 2024 | Scottie Scheffler | $12,100 | 119.0 | 31.9% |
| 2025 | Rory McIlroy | $11,100 | 128.5 | 26.8% |
3 of the last 6 Masters winners were the most popular DFS pick in the field. The highest-owned player at Augusta averages a 4th place finish. Augusta is the only major where chalk wins.
Per @KevinRothWx: Thursday brings roughly 10mph sustained winds with gusts to 15–20mph in the early morning. Manageable conditions overall, but the drought-induced firm greens will make approach play even more demanding than usual.
Players where CADDIE's projection exceeds the market-implied probability by the widest margin. These aren't longshots for the sake of contrarianism—they're players whose skill profiles align with Augusta's demand weights, have relevant course history, and carry projected ownership far below their edge scores justify. LIVE PIPELINE
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