// TPC_CRAIG_RANCH · TOM_WEISKOPF · 2004
33.1974°N · 96.7517°W
// CJ_CUP_BYRON_NELSON · MAY_21–24 · 2026
CRAIG RANCH.
[ BYRON NELSON TROPHY · MCKINNEY TX ]
AETHER ONLINE◆ CADDIE ONLINE◆EVENT CJ_CUP_BYRON_NELSON◆FIELD 147◆MODEL_UPDATED 2026-05-20
// PICKS_FRAMEWORK · CJ_CUP_BYRON_NELSON · STANDARD · CUT_TOP_65
CJ CUP BYRON NELSON.
Par 71. Wide fairways. Birdie season opens in McKinney.
MCKINNEY_TXMAY_21–24PAR_71 · 7,385Y6TH_YEAR_AT_CRAIG_RANCHBYRON_NELSON_TROPHY
0
FIELD
147-player field \u00B7 Cut top 65 + ties after 36 holes
0+
SCHEFFLER_ODDS
Defending champion, DK Sportsbook favorite
0
CUT_FORMAT
Top 65 + ties \u00B7 4-round stroke play
0$
BANKROLL
Seven tickets \u00B7 edge-sized \u00B7 $150 deployed
// POWERED_BY_CADDIE · COURSE_ADJUSTED_DFS_INTELLIGENCE_ENGINE
// 01_COURSE_FIT_PROFILE
Derived from TPC Craig Ranch’s birdie-friendly Weiskopf design, five years of course history (2021–2025), and comp-course analysis (John Deere Classic, TPC Louisiana, TPC Four Seasons Las Colinas). Every CADDIE projection for the CJ Cup Byron Nelson is filtered through this weighting before salary and ownership adjustments are applied.
NODE_01SG:APP
MID_IRON
Primary separator. Large receptive greens reward iron precision. Three of five winners finished top-13 in SG:APP.
30%
NODE_02SG:PUTT
BENTGRASS
Bentgrass greens demand consistent putting volume. Four of five winners excelled with the putter.
25%
NODE_03PAR4
PAR4_SCORING
Six par-4s over 450 yards. Four of five winners finished top-5 in par-4 scoring for the week.
20%
NODE_04SG:OTT
DISTANCE
Wide fairways reward aggressive tee shots. Distance creates birdie looks. Scheffler gained +12.1 SG:APP in 2025.
15%
NODE_05SG:ARG
SCRAMBLING
83 bunkers and water on eight holes guarantee scrambling situations. Short game separates late in the week.
10%
> IRON_ELITEMid-iron precision into large bentgrass greens is the primary statistical separator. Three of five winners finished top-13 in SG:APP.
> BIRDIE_MACHINEScoring conditions demand volume. Winning scores range from -23 to -31. Players who can’t make consecutive birdies won’t contend.
> BENTGRASS_PUTTERFour of five winners had strong putting weeks. Consistency on bentgrass over 72 holes separates the field.
> PAR4_SCORERSix par-4s over 450 yards define the round. The winners exploit these holes rather than survive them.
> DRIVING_AGGRESSIVEWide fairways reward tee-to-green distance. This is not a course where accuracy off the tee constricts strategy.
// 02_WEATHER_INTELLIGENCE
Significant weather disruption expected at TPC Craig Ranch. Rain delays and storm threats all four rounds.
Dry morning with light 5mph winds... the winds don't budge much, but the rain chances climb dramatically in the afternoon. Good chance of a storm delay, decent chance they can't finish the round.
Dry. Winds are calm in the morning, light in the afternoon (max 5-10mph). All in all, a much better day for golf.
Rain and storm chances return, possible delay at any point. Winds gradually build through the day, highest in the afternoon, but likely topping out around 10mph sustained with stronger gusts.
Another day with a chance of rain and storms. Winds, again, are not the issue here, topping out around 5-10mph sustained.
// OVERALL_READ
I don’t see a strong weather advantage to be had here, mostly due to the chaos that potential rain delays brings to the mix. Winds though are mostly light and manageable, so I would just play the golfers you like and see how the rain works out as the tournament goes along.
— @KEVINROTHWX
// 03_HISTORICAL_SG_DECOMPOSITION
| YEAR | EVENT | WINNER | SCORE | APP NOTE |
|---|
| 2025 | CJ CUP BYRON NELSON | Scottie Scheffler | -31 | +12.1 SG:APP — historic approach dominance |
| 2024 | AT&T BYRON NELSON | Taylor Pendrith | -23 | Top-5 SG:APP for the week |
| 2023 | AT&T BYRON NELSON | Jason Day | -23 | Strong approach + bentgrass putting |
| 2022 | AT&T BYRON NELSON | K.H. Lee | -26 | Second in par-4 efficiency |
| 2021 | AT&T BYRON NELSON | K.H. Lee | -25 | Led field in par-4 scoring |
> PATTERNIron play and putting are the twin pillars of TPC Craig Ranch. Scottie Scheffler’s 2025 performance (+12.1 SG:APP) is the statistical benchmark. Three of five winners finished top-13 in both SG:APP and SG:PUTT. Par-4 scoring has separated the winner from the field in four of five editions. Winning scores cluster between -23 and -26 — except when Scheffler is in the field.
HOLE_12
P4 · 492Y
Longest par-4 — former par-5
Former par-5 converted to the longest par-4 on the course. Demands two committed iron strikes. Separates the field in par-4 scoring.
HOLE_16
P4 · 455Y
Water in play — bogey risk
Water in play. Approach requires precise mid-iron to a well-guarded green. Bogey risk compounds on moving day.
HOLE_18
P5 · 550Y
Championship closer — eagle possible
Closing par-5. Reachable in two for most of the field. Eagle and birdie are legitimate Sunday outcomes. Renovation added bunker complexity.
HOLE_05
P4 · 445Y
Birdie window — early runway
Back-to-back scoring opportunities early in the round (#5/#6). Players who convert here gain the runway to manage the harder stretch.
// 04_CASH_TARGETS
TPC Craig Ranch’s par-71 layout with soft bentgrass greens and wide fairways produces scoring compression in wet conditions. Cash construction prioritizes made-cut certainty and floor — iron-dominant profiles who can exploit the birdie windows and survive the storm-delay chaos. Scheffler anchors with the strongest all-around profile at any price. Kim brings course history and iron precision at mid-value.
// ANCHORScottie Scheffler
DK $$14,800ODDS +155
Defending champion who won here by eight strokes at -31. Field-best SG:APP last year (+12.1). Weaker field than any Signature Event means Scheffler’s edge is amplified. CADDIE EST win probability ~30%. At +155, the market has him correctly priced as a borderline cinch — which at cash game stakes still makes him the structural anchor. Coming off a putting dip at Aronimink, a return to the bentgrass of Craig Ranch should recalibrate.
> FLOORBest player in the world returning to a course he dominated by a historically absurd margin. Weaker field means a top-10 finish is near-certain if healthy.
> RISK+155 implies 39% win probability. At $14,800, he costs more than any other player by a significant margin. The risk is salary compression — not performance.
// COURSE_FITSi Woo Kim
DK $$9,900ODDS +1300
Dallas resident with deep familiarity at TPC Craig Ranch. Ranks second in this field in tee-to-green SG over the last three months, behind only Scheffler. Top-10 in driving accuracy, SG:OTT, and iron play this season. The former Players Championship winner’s putting will be the separator — if the putter runs hot on bentgrass, the course-fit case is the strongest in the non-Scheffler tier. CADDIE EST win probability ~7%.
> FLOORSecond-best tee-to-green profile in the field. Course familiarity from Dallas residency. If his putting converts this week, the mid-iron precision creates a realistic contention floor.
> RISKPutting inconsistency is the known ceiling cap. Wide win distribution means he can finish anywhere from T2 to MC depending on the flat stick.
// CASH_PIVOTBrooks Koepka
DK $$9,600ODDS +2200
Five-time major champion coming off a strong tee-to-green week at Aronimink. Ranks third in this field in true SG:T2G. Top-20 in five of his last eight events. At a course that rewards patient iron play and par-4 scoring — both Koepka strengths — his cash floor is higher than the +2200 odds imply. At $9,600 he unlocks strong mid-tier construction.
> FLOORTop-20 in five of last eight. Ball-striking elite profile maps to Craig Ranch’s par-4 demands. +2200 at $9,600 creates legitimate cash floor at a course where par-4 scoring is the primary separator.
> RISKOne start at TPC Craig Ranch competitively. Putting hasn’t been elite this season. If rain delays compress the field and the putter doesn’t cooperate, the floor compresses.
// MID_VALUEJordan Spieth
DK $$9,800ODDS +1600
Texas native who sleeps in his own bed this week. Four starts at TPC Craig Ranch: T9, T2, MC, T4. Ranked second in SG:T2G at Aronimink last week. His iron game has been returning to form throughout 2026, and the wedge game is consistently elite. If the putting that showed up on Thursday at Aronimink carries over to McKinney, the course-familiarity argument is legitimate at +1600.
> FLOORFour starts at Craig Ranch, three strong finishes. Home course familiarity in wet, low-scoring conditions is a known advantage. Ball-striking returning to form gives the floor.
> RISKNo top-10 in any event since the 2025 Memorial. Putting lapses remain frequent despite Thursday flashes. The +1600 price implies more consistency than his 2026 results support.
// CONSTRUCTION_NOTES
Scheffler ($14,800) anchoring cash is structurally sound at 52.6% projected ownership. Kim ($9,900) + Koepka ($9,600) core = $19,500. Fill with Eckroat ($7,500) + Smith ($7,400) + Blanchet ($6,800) from the value tier. SCHEFFLER_OFF: Spieth ($9,800) + Kim ($9,900) at the top, fill with Bezuidenhout ($8,300), Eckroat ($7,500), Smith ($7,400), and one from the $6,800–$7,200 range.
// 05_GPP_TARGETS
Scheffler’s $14,800 price tag and 52.6% projected ownership means GPP differentiation lives in the $6,800–$8,300 tier. These five players project above their salary tier at a venue where iron play and putting are the separators — not raw power or name recognition. Jordan Smith ($7,400) carries the slate’s highest value score. Any of them inside the top 20 at sub-$8K salary wins you your GPP contest.
LEV · BEZUIDENHOUT
+6500
$$8,300 · TEXAS_SPECIALIST
LEV · KIM
+5000
$$7,800 · MID_LEVERAGE
LEV · ECKROAT
+4500
$$7,500 · COURSE_HISTORY
LEV · SMITH
+8000
$$7,400 · VALUE_PLAY
LEV · BLANCHET
+15000
$$6,800 · DEEP_VALUE
// TEXAS_SPECIALISTChristiaan Bezuidenhout
DK $$8,300ODDS +6500
Has gained the most strokes on Texas courses outside of Scheffler over the last 36 rounds. Eight top-25 finishes in his last 10 Texas starts across Valero, Houston, Charles Schwab, and Byron Nelson. Colonial — the closest model to TPC Craig Ranch — is where his profile projects strongest. CADDIE projects 74.1 points at $8,300 with just 9.6% ownership. At +6500, the Texas-specialist thesis is entirely unpriced.
> FLOORTexas specialist with proven course-type fit across every comparable Texas venue. The strongest regional-fit case in the field after Scheffler, Kim, and Spieth. 9.6% ownership creates real differentiation.
> RISKHas not won a PGA Tour event outright. If the ceiling requires a conversion moment he hasn’t produced, the GPP floor relies entirely on a top-20.
// MID_LEVERAGETom Kim
DK $$7,800ODDS +5000
CADDIE projects 73.4 points at $7,800 — strong value ratio at 0.44. The 23-year-old’s iron game has been consistently elite this season, and the bentgrass putting surface at Craig Ranch suits his stroke. At +5000 and 11.3% projected ownership, the leverage ratio is legitimate. Two wins on Tour already, including a signature-event pedigree. His ball-striking translates to any birdie-volume setup.
> FLOOR73.4 projected points at $7,800 creates real salary relief. Iron precision translates directly to Craig Ranch’s mid-iron demands. Two-time Tour winner with big-stage experience.
> RISK11.3% ownership is elevated for this salary tier. If the field chalks him up further, the leverage compresses. Putting can be streaky week to week.
// COURSE_HISTORYAustin Eckroat
DK $$7,500ODDS +4500
Runner-up at TPC Craig Ranch in 2024, one shot behind Jason Day. Shot an 8-under 63 — one stroke shy of his career low — that week. Ranks fifth in this field in SG per round at this venue. CADDIE projects 70.5 points at $7,500 with 13.1% ownership. Coming into the week with three consecutive top-20 finishes as his iron game and short game have returned to form.
> FLOORT2 at Craig Ranch in 2024. Fifth in field by course SG per round. At $7,500, the course-history case is the strongest outside the top tier.
> RISKMissed the cut here in 2025. 13.1% ownership is high for a $7,500 salary — the market knows the course-history story. Driving accuracy not fully back to prior elite levels.
// VALUE_PLAYJordan Smith
DK $$7,400ODDS +8000
The highest value score on the slate at 0.67 per CADDIE’s model. Projects 75.5 points at $7,400 — that is $9K-tier production at a $7,400 price. At +8000 and just 8.2% projected ownership, Smith’s leverage ratio is the best in the mid-tier. European Tour pedigree brings bentgrass comfort. Iron play from 150–200 yards has been consistently strong this season.
> FLOORHighest value score on the board. 75.5 projected points at $7,400 unlocks premium construction everywhere else. 8.2% ownership creates genuine GPP differentiation.
> RISKLimited PGA Tour course history in Texas. The value score is model-derived, not course-proven at Craig Ranch specifically. If the wind disrupts his European-style ball flight, the projection compresses.
// DEEP_VALUEChandler Blanchet
DK $$6,800ODDS +15000
The sub-$7,000 contrarian play with real projection backing. CADDIE projects 65.0 points at $6,800 with just 5.4% ownership. At +15000, any made-cut performance with a hot putting round creates GPP-winning differentiation at this salary. The wide fairways at Craig Ranch remove the driving accuracy concern that limits him at tighter venues. In rain-softened scoring conditions, Blanchet’s iron game can produce birdie volume.
> FLOORAt $6,800 he unlocks the entire premium tier. 5.4% ownership means real differentiation if he makes the cut and strings together a hot weekend round.
> RISK+15000 for a reason — ceiling is capped. Limited Tour pedigree means the floor is a missed cut. GPP-only play — not a cash target.
// CONSTRUCTION_NOTES
Two builds. (1) SCHEFFLER_ON: Scheffler ($14,800) + Bezuidenhout ($8,300) = $23,100. Fill with Smith ($7,400) + Eckroat ($7,500) + Blanchet ($6,800) + one from $5,200–$5,400 range. (2) SCHEFFLER_OFF: Kim ($9,900) + Tom Kim ($7,800) + Eckroat ($7,500) + Smith ($7,400) + Bezuidenhout ($8,300) + Blanchet ($6,800) = $47,700. Under cap with room to bump. If fading Scheffler, commit fully — don’t half-fade with a 10% exposure.
// 06_BETTING_CARD
> EDGE_RULEEdge = CADDIE EST probability − DK implied probability, in percentage points. STRONG ≥ +5pp · EDGE ≥ +2pp · THIN ≥ 0pp · MARKET_SIDE< 0. Stake sized by edge magnitude. All CADDIE probabilities marked EST.
> RATIONALEDefending champion, best player in the world, course where he gained +12.1 SG:APP last year. Market has him juiced relative to true probability — but correctly priced chalk at a home venue with a weak field is still the single most reliable outright available. Tiny stake acknowledges the negative edge. The optionality of a 31-under blitz is worth a small ticket.
> RATIONALESecond-best tee-to-green profile in the field behind only Scheffler. Dallas resident with course familiarity. +1300 underweights the iron precision and local knowledge combination. The putting is the separator — if Kim’s flat stick runs hot this week, the CADDIE EST win probability could reach double digits.
> RATIONALEFour starts at Craig Ranch, three top-10 or better. Ranked second in SG:T2G at Aronimink last week — ball-striking form is genuinely returning. At a course he’s finished T9, T2, T4, the T10 probability should clear 30% easily. If his putter from Thursday at Aronimink carries to McKinney, the ceiling is a win.
> RATIONALETop-20 in five of his last eight events. Third in field in true SG:T2G. Second on approach among contenders. At +400 with thin Craig Ranch course history, the market underweights the ball-striking profile at a venue where that is the primary separator. One of the best T10 values on the board relative to implied probability.
> RATIONALET2 at TPC Craig Ranch in 2024 — the course-history case is proven. Three consecutive top-20s entering the week. At +220 for a T20 at a venue where he’s finished top-5, the implied probability drastically underweights his course fit. Best floor bet on the card.
> RATIONALEHighest value score on the entire slate (0.67). CADDIE projects 75.5 points at $7,400 — $9K-tier production at a sub-$7,500 price. At +300 for a T20, the implied probability underweights his projection quality. European Tour bentgrass pedigree translates directly to Craig Ranch’s 777 Bentgrass surface.
// PARLAY_012-LEG T10Spieth + Eckroat
+800COMBINED_FROM_LEGS
> Jordan SpiethT10+350C 30.0%
> Austin EckroatT10+400C 40.0%
> RATIONALESpieth brings home-course comfort and returning ball-striking. Eckroat brings proven course history and returning form. Positively correlated — both profiles benefit from the wet, soft scoring conditions that favor iron precision over brute-force distance. Marginally positive CADDIE edge. The $240 return on a $30 ticket justifies the thin edge.
// TICKET_SUMMARY
$10Scheffler outright @ +155 — defending champ, market-side, small ticket$15Si Woo Kim outright @ +1300 — thin positive CADDIE edge, iron precision$25Spieth T10 @ +350 — course history + returning form (VERIFY ON DK)$20Koepka T10 @ +400 — ball-striking elite, five top-20s in last eight (VERIFY ON DK)$20Eckroat T20 @ +220 — T2 at Craig Ranch 2024, three straight top-20s (VERIFY ON DK)$20Smith T20 @ +300 — highest value score on slate, 75.5 proj at $7,400 (VERIFY ON DK)$30Parlay Spieth + Eckroat T10 @ +800 — correlated wet-conditions profiles
TOTAL_DEPLOYED$140 · 93.3%
~$10 held as live reserve for mid-round value.
// DK odds drift before posted tee times — verify before placing. All CADDIE probabilities marked EST are model-derived estimates. Wager responsibly.
// POWERED_BY_CADDIE
MODEL · Aether pre-tournament ensemble · 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
DATA · CADDIE pre-tournament projections (site=draftkings)
MARKET · DraftKings Sportsbook
WEATHER · Kevin Roth · @KevinRothWx
ARCLINE_ANALYTICS · arclineanalytics.com · DraftKings exclusively · For entertainment purposes.