RECAPGOLF · Aug 15, 2026 · 3 MIN · Arcline Analytics

FedEx St. Jude Championship — Round 3

Scottie Scheffler leads at -13 through 3. Where our pre-event reads stand — original lines, live prices, and a clear status on every one. Nothing's graded until Sunday.

00 · THE READ

// FEDEX ST. JUDE CHAMPIONSHIP · THROUGH ROUND 3

8 tracked, 3 clearly live, 2 in range, 3 fading.

Scottie Scheffler sits on top at -13. The board below is the honest state of every read we made before the week — what we got, where they are, and what the bet implies now. None of it is graded; a tournament bet isn't decided until the trophy is.

01 · THE ROUND

// THE THIRD ROUND

Round performance, separate from the bet — who moved and what moved them.

> STRONGSam Burns (T2, -11) — went low for a 62 in the third round. Approach carried it (approach +3.73).

> STRONGTom Kim (T10, -6) — went low for a 63 in the third round. The putter carried it (putting +4.22).

> STRONGSi Woo Kim (T6, -7) — went low for a 65 in the third round. Approach carried it (approach +4.74).

> SOFTLudvig Aberg (T22, -3) — left it out there with a 74 in the third round. Approach let him down (approach -2.59).

> SOFTViktor Hovland (T10, -6) — left it out there with a 72 in the third round. Off the tee let him down (off-the-tee -0.82).

02 · THE CUT

THE CUT8 of the 8 names we tracked pre-event are through to the weekend. No tracked favorite missed it.

03 · STATUS BOARD

// EVERY READ · ORIGINAL LINE → STATUS

Pre-event fair price, current position, live implied price, status. Live finish probabilities update through the weekend.

Player	Pre-event (fair)	Now	Implied now	Status
Scottie Scheffler	outright +634 · T10 -215	1 (-13)	win 62.1% · T10 99%	LIVE
Rory McIlroy	outright +1654 · T10 +146	T62 (+6)	win 0.0% · T10 0%	FADING
Xander Schauffele	outright +2581 · T10 +179	T22 (-3)	win 0.0% · T10 14%	IN RANGE
Justin Thomas	outright +2782 · T10 +251	T38 (-1)	win 0.0% · T10 3%	FADING
Cameron Young	outright +2799 · T10 +218	T41 (0)	win 0.0% · T10 1%	FADING
Tommy Fleetwood	outright +3006 · T10 +186	T4 (-8)	win 2.4% · T10 79%	LIVE
Sam Burns	outright +3157 · T10 +253	T2 (-11)	win 18.0% · T10 96%	LIVE
Ludvig Aberg	outright +3244 · T10 +252	T22 (-3)	win 0.0% · T10 13%	IN RANGE

> LIVEScottie Scheffler — pre-event outright +634 (13.6%), T20 -596 (86%). Through 3 rounds: 1, -13. The putter carried it (putting +2.59). The case is intact — right in it with the in-play model now at 62.1% to win, against a pre-event fair price of +634.

> FADINGRory McIlroy — pre-event outright +1654 (5.7%), T20 -169 (63%). Through 3 rounds: T62, +6. The putter let him down (putting -1.57). Mathematically alive, practically a long way back — the path needs several spots over the weekend with the board this tight.

> FADINGJustin Thomas — pre-event outright +2782 (3.5%), T20 +107 (48%). Through 3 rounds: T38, -1. The putter let him down (putting -2.41). Mathematically alive, practically a long way back — the path needs several spots over the weekend with the board this tight.

04 · ROUND 4 LOOKAHEAD

// ROUND 4 · WHERE THE VALUE SITS

Not graded lines — the names where the in-play model and the leaderboard disagree most, the spots worth a weekend position.

Sam Burns (T2) — the in-play model now rates him higher than the board does, top-ten 96%
Jake Knapp (T4) — the in-play model now rates him higher than the board does, top-ten 67%
Brian Harman (T6) — the in-play model now rates him higher than the board does, top-ten 57%
Alex Noren (T6) — the in-play model now rates him higher than the board does, top-ten 58%

99 · THE CLOSE

The weekend case is intact.

Every line above gets its final grade on Sunday, win or lose, in the same font. Until then it's a status, not a scorecard.

Written by Arcline AnalyticsSee today's card →