2026 Farmers Insurance Open — Quick Context
📍 Where: Torrey Pines Golf Course — La Jolla, CA
🏌️ Format: 72 holes
• Rounds 1–2 split between North & South
• Weekend played entirely on the South
✂️ Cut: Top ~65
💰 Purse: ~$9.6M
Torrey Pines doesn’t reward “one hot putting week.”
It punishes weakness.
This course demands:
Distance + controlled ball striking
Long-iron excellence
Bogey avoidance
Comfort on Poa Annua greens
Statistically, Torrey is one of the hardest scoring tests on TOUR:
Lower fairway hit rates
Longer average approach distances
Firm, punchy greens
That’s why random winners don’t sneak through here.
This tournament consistently crowns elite profiles, not variance plays.
DraftKings Odds Landscape (2026 Snapshot)
With Scottie Scheffler out, the top of the market opens up—but not randomly.
Current DK boards consistently cluster around:
Xander Schauffele — market anchor
Cameron Young — power + elite ball striking
Patrick Cantlay — consistency + irons
Hideki Matsuyama — approach king
Jason Day — Torrey whisper + history
These names aren’t narratives.
They’re market-validated fits.
What Actually Matters at Torrey Pines (Betting Lens)
1️⃣ Approach + Off-the-Tee Are Non-Negotiable
The South Course is long, narrow, and penal.
Miss the fairway → heavy rough
Miss the approach → difficult up-and-downs
That elevates:
SG: Approach
SG: Off-the-Tee
Proximity from 175+ yards
Putting helps — but only after you survive tee-to-green.
2️⃣ Bogey Avoidance Beats Birdie Sprees
Typical winning scores: −8 to −15
This is not a “birdie barrage” event.
It’s a four-round grind.
Translation:
Avoid doubles
Accept pars
Let others implode
That’s why volatile profiles underperform here.
3️⃣ Course History Is Real (And Repeatable)
Torrey Pines is a unique beast:
Length
Coastal wind
Poa Annua greens
Visual intimidation
Players who’ve solved it before…
solve it again.
Jason Day is the obvious example — but he’s not alone.
🎯 2026 Farmers Insurance Open — Betting Card
Every pick below is grounded in:
Course fit
Recent form
DraftKings market structure
No filler. No hope bets.
🏆 OUTRIGHT WINNER
Xander Schauffele
Why this works:
Elite tee-to-green profile for hard setups
Strong scrambling under pressure
Comfortable in windy, firm coastal conditions
Near-home confidence matters more here than most weeks
Most importantly:
The DK price reflects skill, not hype.
Torrey Pines rewards control + patience.
That’s Xander’s wheelhouse.
🔟 TOP-20 FINISHERS
1) Patrick Cantlay
Ultra-steady iron play
Long-iron test suits him
Rarely beats himself
2) Hideki Matsuyama
Elite SG: Approach
Makes pars when fields make bogeys
A textbook Torrey profile
3) Jason Day
Two wins here (not coincidence)
Visual comfort + course memory
Recent form whispers are quietly positive
4) Cameron Young
Massive length
Improving approach consistency
Ceiling play with Top-20 floor
Why these four?
All combine:
Proven Torrey fit
Stable recent form
DK pricing that rewards placement value—not name value
🎯 ROUND 1 LEADER
Will Zalatoris (+3500)
Zalatoris excels in:
Short-burst elite iron rounds
Early-week tee-to-green spikes
Round-1 leader markets favor pure ball-striking surges, not sustainability.
That’s his sweet spot.
💰 LONG SHOT (With Actual Teeth)
Sam Stevens (+4900)
Why this matters:
Runner-up here last year — real course translation
Strong early-season form
Above-average driving + iron profile
This isn’t “spray and pray.”
It’s context + form + course affinity.
📈 Expected Winning Score
Based on ~20 years of Torrey data + modern scoring:
Most likely: −9 to −13
Outer range: −8 to −15 (wind dependent)
This tournament is won by someone who stays disciplined for four days, not someone chasing flags.
Final Take
Torrey Pines doesn’t forgive impatience.
And neither should your betting card.
This is a ball-striker’s market.
Bet accordingly.