Waste Management Phoenix Open Preview
Separating the party from the math
The Waste Management Open gets mislabeled every year.
It’s loud.
It’s chaotic.
It produces low scores.
That leads people to treat it like a variance event — a place where anyone can get hot and win.
That’s mostly wrong.
TPC Scottsdale is a scoring course, but it’s not a random one. The same player profiles keep showing up late on Sunday, and the reasons aren’t complicated once you strip away the noise.
The course, briefly
TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)
Par 71 | ~7,260 yards
Wide fairways, but very specific landing zones
Predictable desert lies
Over-seeded greens that flatten putting edges
You don’t need perfection here.
You do need repeatable approach play and the discipline to press only where scoring is expected.
What actually decides this tournament
1. Approach play from the middle of the bag
TPC Scottsdale quietly funnels players into the same distances over and over again.
A large percentage of approach shots come from 150–200 yards, especially on the par-4s that ultimately separate the field.
This matters because:
Everyone hits fairways
Everyone has birdie looks
Separation comes from proximity, not access
Players who are consistently strong from this range don’t need to chase. They let the course come to them.
2. Par-4 efficiency matters more than par-5 scoring
Par-5s are scorable here. That’s obvious.
They don’t decide the tournament.
The winner almost always plays the 400–450 yard par-4s better than the field. These holes demand controlled aggression and precise distance control with mid-irons.
If a player is neutral on these holes, they’re not winning.
If they lose strokes here, they’re gone.
3. Putting variance compresses
This is one of the more misunderstood parts of Scottsdale.
Yes, the winning score is low.
No, that doesn’t mean this is a “hot putter” event.
The greens are straightforward. Everyone sees makeable looks. That compresses putting performance and elevates tee-to-green consistency.
Winners here tend to:
Gain with approach
Be neutral to slightly positive putting
Avoid relying on spikes
Course history matters here — and it repeats
TPC Scottsdale is one of the few TOUR stops where recent course history has real signal.
Comfort matters.
Visual familiarity matters.
Knowing when to push — and when not to — matters.
When you look at the last five editions, the same names keep appearing.
Here’s the cleanest way to see it.
Waste Management Phoenix Open
Course History Matrix (Last 5 Years)
Golfer ↓ / Year → | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scottie Scheffler | T7 | 1st 🏆 | 1st 🏆 | T3 | T25 |
Jordan Spieth | T4 | T13 | T6 | T6 | T4 |
Xander Schauffele | 2nd | T3 | T4 | T12 | T17 |
Hideki Matsuyama | T15 | T16 | T9 | T22 | — |
Sam Burns | T22 | MC | T6 | T3 | T49 |
Tom Kim | — | — | T6 | T17 | T9 |
Cameron Young (profile fit) | T60 | T14 | T7 | T21 | T8 |
Scottie, Spieth, and Xander are the clear standouts. No missed cuts. Multiple deep runs. Repeated contention.
Hideki is steady but no longer dominant — still viable, lower ceiling.
Burns is volatile, but his ceiling outcomes matter more here than his misses.
Tom Kim has limited history, but all positive — trajectory matters.
Cameron Young isn’t here on history. He’s here because his profile fits the scoring structure.
Betting card (DraftKings reference)
This card leans into structure and repeatability, not narratives.
🏆 Outright Winner
Scottie Scheffler
This is the simplest decision on the board.
Best tee-to-green player in the field
Two wins here
Doesn’t need a putting spike to contend
Course rewards exactly what he does best
The number isn’t exciting. The logic is clean.
🔟 Top-20 Finishers
Jordan Spieth — Top 20
Four top-6 finishes in the last five years. Even without a win, this is elite course comfort.
Xander Schauffele — Top 20
Consistently in the mix here, even when not at peak form. One of the safest profiles in this field.
Sam Burns — Top 20
Volatile history, but when he hits, he hits hard. This course rewards his birdie conversion ability.
Tom Kim — Top 20
Limited reps, all positive. Strong mid-iron play and composure in low-scoring environments.
🎯 One-and-Done Pick
Jordan Spieth
This is the correct deployment.
Elite recent course history
Legitimate win equity
Lower opportunity cost than majors or no-cut events
High floor, high relevance this specific week
Final thought
The Waste Management Open is loud, but it isn’t chaotic.
It rewards:
Players who generate chances instead of chasing them
Golfers comfortable pressing in scoring zones
Familiarity with how this course actually plays on Sunday
If you treat this like a random shootout, you’ll miss it.
The edge here has always been quieter than the crowd.