Sunday, Feb 8, 2026 • 3:30 p.m. PT / 6:30 p.m. ET
📍 Levi’s Stadium — Santa Clara, CA
📺 NBC / Peacock / NFL+
DraftKings Lines (Book of Record):
Seahawks −4.5
Moneyline: SEA ~−235 | NE ~+195
O/U: 45.5
This pits two 14–3 teams with very different paths and identities — and the market is giving Seattle a clear favorite tag while offering significant value on New England based on underlying context and matchups.
🧠 Why This Game’s Result Isn’t Obvious
📊 Defensive & Offensive Profiles
Seahawks
Finished No.1 in scoring defense, rarely allowing teams to explode offensively.
Combined pass rush + coverage against explosive plays is elite, forcing multiple teams into uncomfortable scripts.
Sam Darnold has been efficient all postseason and plays with rhythm when the turnover count is low.
Patriots
New England was a top-3 offensive unit in EPA and success rate per drive, meaning consistent, sustained production.
Drake Maye nearly won MVP, finishing runner-up in league voting, and has carried the offense through DA ability, even in adverse conditions.
This is a matchup of elite defense vs. a highly efficient and adaptable offense.
📈 Key Trends That Matter
➤ Seattle’s Defense Suppresses Chunk Plays
Seattle’s defense has kept opponents from consistently generating explosive yards or big scoring swings — crucial in big games where margin for error is tiny.
➤ Patriots Offensive Efficiency
New England’s scoring and drive efficiency — especially in turnovers and sustained sequences — creates a floor that rarely deviates game to game. When combined with their defense, it makes them well positioned to stay competitive.
➤ The Quarterback Narrative
Drake Maye has been close to MVP form during the season and leads an offense built around quick reads and efficient patterns.
Sam Darnold has been efficient in the postseason but is not an MVP-level passer, making this a classic efficiency differential matchup.
🏈 Market Mispricing: Where the Value Lives
DraftKings stakeholders have Seattle as a comfortable favorite — but the model that comes from combining efficiency metrics, situational statistics, and game script projections suggests New England’s true probability of winning is materially higher than the implied ~32–33% moneyline price. That means:
🔹 Patriots +4.5 carries genuine tilt value
🔹 Patriots Moneyline +195 is +EV for disciplined bettors
🔹 Unders are likely if the game follows a controlled, efficient script rather than a shootout
📊 My Model’s Core Prediction
Final Score:
Patriots 23 — Seahawks 21
Why this score?
Under / controlled pace style
Both defenses limit explosive scoring
New England’s efficiency keeps them within a possession all game
This lines up with the 45.5 total while tilting toward a tight, grind-oriented outcome.
💰 5 Strong Props (DraftKings)
All aligned with the Medallion Sports proprietary model and are priced strictly against DraftKings lines:
1️⃣ Rhamondre Stevenson — OVER 14.5 Rush Attempts (+100)
This is the safest way New England stays competitive: consistent carries and tempo control.
2️⃣ Drake Maye — UNDER 221.5 Passing Yards (-113)
High completion volume but short, efficient passing; quality over volume nets lower yardage.
3️⃣ Drake Maye — OVER 19.5 Completions (-127)
This complements the above — short/intermediate ball control leads to completion volume, not big chunks.
4️⃣ Kenneth Walker III — UNDER 18.5 Rush Attempts (-105)
Seattle runs only when they’re comfortably ahead; this script leans close, meaning fewer guaranteed touches.
5️⃣ Sam Darnold — UNDER 230.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Seattle pace controlled by possession and lack of blowout creates moderate passing volume for Darnold.
Each of these complements the same script: competitive, low-variance, clock-controlled football.
⚡ Impact Players To Watch
Patriots Elite Movers
Drake Maye: MVP-caliber regular season, carries potential to tilt matchup with efficient decision-making.
Rhamondre Stevenson: Workhorse profile who dictates early game flow in close contests.
Seahawks Movers
Sam Darnold: Efficiency through playoffs keeps Seattle relevant if mistakes are minimized.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba & Kenneth Walker III: Big play tools that can flip the script — key variance makers.
🧠 Game Script Blueprint
1st Quarter: NE controls clock early, mixing run & short passing.
2nd Quarter: SEA stays patient but struggles to create vertical push.
3rd Quarter: Big defensive stops and field position fights keep it close.
4th Quarter: Belichick-like situational execution, late field goal separates.
This is a possession battle, not a shootout.
📌 Final Take
While Vegas and most analysts project the Seahawks as favorites — especially given their defensive stature and market momentum — a true analytic weighting that incorporates:
Offensive efficiency
Defensive suppression
Situational advantage
QB performance trends
DraftKings pricing
…reveals real value on New England.
➡️ My pick: Patriots 23, Seahawks 21
➡️ Best value bets: Patriots +4.5 | Patriots ML +195 | Under 45.5
➡️ Top props: Stevenson O14.5 att, Maye U221.5 yds, Maye O19.5 cmp, Walker U18.5 att, Darnold U230.5 yds