8 teams the model likes
From mid-range value to deep leverage. Each team cleared the Arcline golf model's format-fit filter: approach skill, par-5 scoring, four-ball upside, team chemistry, and alternate-shot survivability.
Thorbjornsen / Vilips
+2100Former Stanford teammates who finished T4 in their 2025 Zurich debut — their first time playing this event together. They shot -19 across two four-ball rounds last year, one of the elite best-ball marks in the field. Vilips won the 2025 Puerto Rico Open. Thorbjornsen posted T3 at the WM Phoenix Open in February 2026. Both finished T33 at RBC Heritage last week with zero top-20s combined in their past two events coming in — but the form dip is already baked into the price.
Arcline Signal
Proven four-ball ceiling at this exact venue. The form dip is priced in at +2100. Chemistry is documented, not assumed.
Defending champions at -28 in 2025, the third-lowest winning total in tournament history. Both won their first PGA Tour titles here. Griffin went on to win twice more in 2025 and made the Ryder Cup team. He has rebounded from three straight MCs with three consecutive top-35 finishes, gaining strokes OTT in each of his past four starts. Novak posted T14 at the Valero Texas Open and T16 at RBC Heritage. They rank as the 5th-best putting duo in the field.
Arcline Signal
Defending champions with documented chemistry and both trending upward. The format rewards familiarity — no team in the field has more of it than these two.
McCarty is on an elite two-week run: T24 at the Masters followed by T12 at RBC Heritage, gaining strokes on approach in back-to-back major-field events. As a team, McCarty and Meissner rank 2nd in the entire field in par-5 scoring over the past year, 11th in recent form, and 13th in putting. The par-5 scoring overlap is the structural edge — TPC Louisiana's three par-5s are the primary birdie engines in four-ball play.
Arcline Signal
The par-5 scoring profile is the single most important team metric at TPC Louisiana. This pair leads the field in that category. +2500 hasn't caught up to the data.
Both rank inside the top 65 on Tour in birdie percentage — rare for a pair where both players are birdie threats rather than the typical one-anchor, one-stabilizer dynamic. Li contended at the Masters before a final-round collapse. Smith posted T16 at RBC Heritage, his 5th top-27 finish in 11 events in 2026, and previously ran 3rd at the Valspar Championship. First time paired together.
Arcline Signal
Two birdie-makers at +2200 is a structural four-ball mismatch. The alternate-shot survivability question is real — that's the variable the full model addresses Wednesday.
Rai has never missed the weekend at TPC Louisiana. He has four finishes of T23 or better at this event including T4 in 2022 — the most consistent venue record in the mid-range tier. Theegala and Rai finished T18 together in 2025, establishing a baseline of team performance at this specific course. Rai gained strokes on approach in each of his last three starts.
Arcline Signal
The most consistent venue performer in the mid-range tier. Rai's TPC Louisiana floor is the best non-champion record in this field.
Both are PGA Tour winners. Both finished inside the top 20 at the Valero Texas Open on strong tee-to-green weeks — Thompson T14, Eckroat T10. That kind of simultaneous approach-driven performance heading into a course that rewards exactly those skills is the timing correlation the Arcline golf model's model looks for.
Arcline Signal
Two players peaking at the right time on a course that rewards exactly what they just showed at the Valero. The timing correlation is real.
Horschel has two Zurich Classic wins — individually in 2013 and as a team with Scott Piercy in 2018. He has five finishes of T13 or better in his last six Zurich starts prior to 2024. Hoge ranks 12th in SG: Approach this season and 17th in proximity, with top-15 finishes at The American Express and AT&T Pebble Beach. First time paired together.
Arcline Signal
The best tournament leverage play among experienced Zurich hands. Horschel's venue history is unmatched at this price. Hoge's approach numbers are exactly what TPC Louisiana demands.
Ramey has finished T9, runner-up, and T8 at the last three Zurich Classics. His T8 in 2025 was with Lower — they are running it back. Ramey has missed only one cut in his last 11 starts and ranks 8th on Tour in SG: Putting this season. Lower has missed four of his last six cuts — the form risk is real and explains the price.
Arcline Signal
Ramey's Zurich Classic record is one of the most consistent in the field across any price tier. The Lower form concern is the discount. If Ramey carries the alternate-shot rounds, this team has top-10 upside at 68-1.
